Forget M2! The Federal Reserve made an amazing statement! This issue is a 30-year gamble.

On February 23rd, 20021,Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, submitted his semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. The so-called testimony is actually equivalent to our work report here, mainly focusing on economic recovery and monetary policy.

Powell said that the Fed will continue to maintain the current pace of asset purchases until inflation returns to the target value of 2% and the labor market achieves full employment. Before the economic recovery, the Fed's monetary policy will never waver, and interest rate hikes and table contraction will not happen in advance.

At present, the Fed maintains a monthly asset purchase plan of $654.38+020 billion, and the quantitative easing plan has increased the Fed's balance sheet to nearly $7.5 trillion. Matching quantitative easing is the deficit finance in the United States. The Ministry of Finance vigorously issues treasury bonds, and the Federal Reserve directly buys bonds from the market to transport ammunition for the printing machine of the Ministry of Finance.

In the face of unprecedented large-scale water release, global investors are holding the mentality of being bearish and doing more, and everyone is constantly guessing how the bubble will end. How will the fiscal deficit end? But in fact no one has a standard answer.

Including Federal Reserve Chairman Paul.

When referring to this issue, Powell said something meaningful.

When we first started studying economics, M2 seemed to have some connection with the monetary aggregate and economic growth. But now, the data of M2 is meaningless. I think we need to forget M2.

Powell believes that there has been a serious "liquidity trap" in the United States and even the wider region. Money is getting farther and farther away from the real economy, and more is idling in the financial sector-50,000 US dollars of bitcoin, soaring global stock markets and commodities. Everything is a monetary phenomenon.

In the past year, the global economy has been relying on a lot of money to breathe. Yang Ma guarantees the liquidity of the financial market, and the Ministry of Finance is responsible for granting subsidies to the hit enterprises and families to ensure that they can maintain economic recovery.

Style Transformation: New Economy or Pro-cyclical?

With the economic recovery, will the industries that benefited from the epidemic return to before liberation? The answer is, not necessarily. Some industries benefited temporarily, but the medium-and long-term logic of some industries was changed by the epidemic.

As we all know, affected by the epidemic, the number of people attending classes and working online has greatly increased, which has stimulated the demand for tablet computers and notebooks. Intuitively, this part of the increased demand is short-term and will drop rapidly with the vaccination and the end of the city closure.

However, we have observed that HP's share price has reached a new high, and it is in the context of the general decline of US technology stocks. Tencent, Meituan and Ali plunged after the rumor that Hong Kong stocks raised stamp duty came out, but Lenovo's share price survived. Please note that all the companies mentioned are for discussion, not as a basis for investment. )

Behind the stock price is strong performance support. Lenovo's business in Europe and America accounts for about 70%, benefiting from the growth of European and American markets, and its performance in the new quarter exceeded expectations. The company said that the current channel inventory is only about two weeks, which is half of the previous quarter. The company expects that the performance in 20021year will continue to improve.

In the eyes of westerners, China is an infrastructure madman, and the rapid recovery of the epidemic has also benefited from the developed Internet infrastructure. Europe and America have also seen this. Not long ago, I attended the MWC conference. Before the meeting, there was an international forum in which ministers in charge of the economy of several European countries and members of the European Parliament were invited.

One of them mentioned that in order to stimulate the economy, all EU countries have introduced a package of fiscal policies. About 40% of these funds will be invested in new energy, and 30% will be invested in communication and e-government. In the event of an epidemic or other shocks, Europe hopes to follow China's example and let the government manage the country through the Internet, so that enterprises can quickly transfer their business to the Internet. Digitalization is a general trend all over the world. Countries that have not completed digitalization will be very fragile and basically have no ability to resist shocks.

Have short-term performance and long-term logic support? Is the skyrocketing of HP and Lenovo reasonable?

Compared with procyclicality, the new economy is a longer-term bet. However, pro-cyclical stocks are bound to rise. For example, in the tourism industry represented by cruise ships, cruise companies fell by more than 80% last year and increased by three or four times this year, but the share price only fell by half. The epidemic is bound to end and tourism is bound to return to normal. Buying these assets is a certain investment opportunity, and the only uncertainty is time.

In fact, there is no contradiction between the new economy and procyclicality. What matters is the company's own trend. So you don't have to be too obsessed with the recent style switch. In the second half of the bull market, neither will be absent.

Bet on the new economy

We mentioned earlier that the medium-and long-term logic of some industries has been changed by the epidemic, and HP and Lenovo belong to the medium-term benefits. The industries that have benefited for a long time are new energy, cloud services, artificial intelligence and biomedicine. If the government and enterprises want to improve their impact resistance, they must embrace science and technology.

More importantly, these technologies can be said to be the hope of the world economy in the next 30 years. The development of each industry has its own laws. New energy, cloud services, artificial intelligence, and biomedical students are at the right time, just in the growth stage or mature stage, and it is time to take on a big responsibility.

The development of new technologies can create new demands. From the industrial revolution to the electrical age, and then to the Internet, every leap of human civilization is inseparable from technological breakthroughs.

Combing the stimulus plans of various countries in the past two years, we will find that all major economies want to invest money in new energy, 5G, artificial intelligence and biomedicine instead of continuing to build roads and bridges.

Europe plans to allocate 70% fiscal stimulus to new energy and digitalization. After Biden takes office, the United States will return to the Paris Climate Convention and vigorously develop new energy sources. Since early 2020, China has been planning to develop new infrastructure.

The situation now is very similar to that in the 1920s and 1930s. Before and after the Great Depression, economically, major countries were caught in a growth dilemma. Politically, the emerging Japan and Germany have many contradictions with the established powers.

The economic problem was finally solved by means other than economy. The subsequent World War II almost destroyed the whole world, but at the same time all contradictions were solved by violence. The world pattern was redrawn, and the unconvinced countries were defeated. War has also promoted the development of science and technology, such as computers, nuclear energy, automobiles, airplanes and radios. Almost all the great inventions of the last century were inseparable from World War II.

The decades after World War II were the fastest developing stage of human society, and the emerging industries at that time gained the most. The so-called no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no.

Why is the situation now similar to that at that time? Before the epidemic, the global economy was obviously stagnant, and large Internet companies rose for ten years, but where are the new technological innovations? Which large economy can replace China and inject new potential into the global economy?

Before the outbreak, the emerging technologies were 5G, cloud services and artificial intelligence, which made great contributions in the anti-epidemic process and got further development. Health code, drone food delivery, robot patrol, artificial intelligence diagnosis and treatment service, mRNA vaccine, 2020 is a fast-forward of science and technology, which accelerates the landing of new technologies and makes governments, enterprises and people all over the world realize that in the future, if they don't embrace technology, they may lose their competitiveness completely. Take Africa as an example. When will countries without new infrastructure and vaccines get out of the epidemic?

It is difficult for different countries to know each other. Even wearing a mask is a trivial matter, and the East and the West can't reach an agreement, but in terms of new energy and digitalization, everyone has reached a * * * knowledge.

Betting on the new economy is a collective gamble of global powers. Anyway, we have to print money, or we will give the money to innovators to gamble. If we win, the global economy will have a new engine in the next 30 years. Investing in old infrastructure is doomed to fail, so why not bet on the new economy? The wheel of history can only move forward, science and technology are the primary productive forces, and development is the last word.

Why say 30 years? Because from the perspective of the industry, 30 years is almost an innovation cycle. From the perspective of social changes, China began to embrace western civilization in the 19 19 New Culture Movement, 1949 New China was founded, 1978 reform and opening up, and the global economic crisis in 2008. The interval between each milestone is almost thirty years.

In 2020, another phenomenon appeared: the non-profit companies represented by Tesla soared collectively, Tesla was included in the Standard & Poor's 500, and the institutional bear completely surrendered. In the investment system of large institutions, the allocation of assets should be considered from the perspective of winning rate and winning rate. The proliferation of non-profit companies means that in the eyes of large institutions, the winning rate of investing in these companies has greatly improved. The reason we said before is that the fundamentals and policies are developing in a good direction at the same time.

Beat the printing press?

For individuals, the most concerned issue is, of course, how to defeat the printing machine in this water release, or not to lose too badly.

A lot of money needs assets with returns and pools with water storage: gold, commodities, real estate, bitcoin, consumer blue chips and emerging technology companies are the six most important assets. Find out the logic of these six types of assets and make a good allocation, and the rest can only be handed over to time and fate.

Powell's speech represents one of the two major issues of this era: where will modern monetary policy take us? There is also a question about science and technology, when the next generation of scientific and technological revolution will come. The past 2020 was a turning point. With these two questions, human society bid farewell to the past and move towards the unknown.

The story in the next few years is roughly like this: the epidemic will come to an end again and again. In this process, these six types of assets will have opportunities for performance, and the trend of most assets is upward (Bitcoin does not comment).

In the long run, the result depends on the return of countries' bets on the new economy. If the future technologies represented by new energy and artificial intelligence do not perform well, the global economy will continue to struggle in the quagmire, and even more unstable factors will appear. If the new economy becomes a new engine, the next 30 years will be a greater era than the Internet.

-End-

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