Shanghai airport has to go through many difficult times (white horse leading the way, good qualitative, not quantitative)

Today's highlights

Topic: Will Shanghai Airport go through many difficult times? (white horse leading, good qualitative, not quantitative)

Shanghai airport must go through the most difficult stage!

In the history, when all value stocks fall into trouble, there must be an extremely tortuous and difficult stage, so that most investors lose their faith and have a chance to be born again.

There are many qualitative analyses of leading stocks, and there are only a few possibilities for a good company to change its logic.

first, technological innovation subverts the original business model. Airport business does not exist.

second, policy changes, the essential changes in market demand. The current controversy, the impact of duty-free shops in the city. The experience of duty-free shops in global airports has little impact.

There are still many policies to support Shanghai's location advantage. Investors only see the current damage, but don't see the counter-cyclical support policies of international flights and global tourism industry after the epidemic. Our country will go out to Hainan duty-free to stimulate tourism, and Japan, South Korea and Europe will also find ways, but the time is not up. Referring to the recovery of the automobile industry, the European policy of supporting new energy vehicles directly stimulated a round of opportunities in the domestic automobile industry. Empathy, how many countries rely on the development of tourism industry, the policies introduced by these countries must also be very stimulating.

Third, the demographic dividend disappears

Airport shipping has not yet reached the ceiling, and the duty-free industry is growing at a high speed, with omni-channel increment, rather than a stock game.

Therefore, the essential logic of Shanghai Airport will not change. China exemption is a relative monopoly, not an omni-channel monopoly. The development of China-free is a two-legged stand, and then expand new business. Airport duty-free is the axis of duty-free shops in the city, accounting for the best airport traffic as Tianyuan in Go. If the potential is high, it will be wide, and if the potential is low, it will be small. Shanghai's airport traffic is not needed. The first thing to kill must be the valuation of China Free. As long as the airport traffic is of high quality and grows steadily, the traffic dividend will continue to create value.

the market kills liquidity and performance!

First, killing liquidity

Due to repeated epidemics, the time cost of getting on the computer is getting higher and higher. Except for the strongest long-term foreign capital, many funds are unbearable. The pricing power of Shanghai Airport is in the hands of foreign capital, and there will be a continuous net outflow in a short period, but in the medium and long term, foreign capital will continue to be allocated for a long time.

Every time a value stock hits the bottom, it is a desperate kill, or a long period of suffering. There must be one of the two. Investors will either bear the hardest decline or suffer from the bottom for a long time.

if retail investors are optimistic about getting on the computer, there will be no chance in the short term. Only when it cools down, the volatility will drop and the trading volume will shrink.

in 218, pharmaceutical stocks were collectively killed, and they were not killed in 22. Wanhua Chemical, China Jushi and Huayu Automobile. Every big faucet has had a bloody experience!

killing liquidity can't be finished for a while.

Second, kill performance

The performance of the computer is winning numbers, and the market now gives the valuation according to 219. The logic is very simple. If the epidemic ended qualitatively in 2 years, then the computer has already gone through the bottoming period of this year. If the epidemic comes back in 21 years, the market will re-price it according to the logic of 2 years. But if we get back on track, then the opportunity will take a new trend.

I wrote an article in June this year, asking how the market would go if there was no epidemic. Now the same problem is given to the computer, the foreign epidemic is stable, and the vaccine can be introduced to the market. Whether to raise the stock price or the performance first.

Many investors think that the performance of PC will recover until the second half of next year. This judgment has some truth, but does the stock price have to rise after the performance? Now you can look at Huayu Automobile, China Zhongmian, China Jushi and Wanhua Chemical. These stocks damaged by the epidemic are all due to performance, and the stock price has only started to rise?

therefore, the turning point of the computer is not performance, but the epidemic situation can be qualitative. The qualitative analysis of the domestic epidemic is that after the second epidemic in Beijing, the market went out of a wave of market conditions, and the related domestic damaged stocks were repaired and rebounded once.

so when can the foreign epidemic be characterized? This is the key question!

third, should investors configure

if they want to buy the lowest point to configure the computer, they can't buy it at any time. If the investment is made according to the reasonable valuation area, the DDM valuation model of consumer pharmaceutical stocks is used, regardless of the liquidity premium and risk preference. The return on net assets is stable at 15%, the net profit increases by 1-15%, and the valuation of 1-13 billion is a reasonable range.

if the funds considering time cost should not be allocated on the left, small funds should not be allocated on the computer, centralized shareholding should not be allocated on the computer, and it is not suitable to bet heavily without the experience of reversing investment in value stocks. Funds with timing as the core are not suitable for allocation.

In the past, most of the leading stocks that have been reversed have spent a long time. For example, the fund allocation of China Jushi, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Sanan Optoelectronics, Zhongmian, and medical consumption are basically the same experience.

this time, you will be more strategic under the previous configuration experience.

Fourth, the configuration logic of the computer

At present, both heavy positions and empty positions are timing ideas.

the former bet low, while the latter bet low.

after the fundamentals are determined, the track is fine, the policy logic has not changed, and the demographic dividend and location advantage are clear.

take 219 as a reference, and give a certain valuation discount. Many people say that they hit 68 before the Spring Festival, so now 68 is expensive. This is talking by looking at pictures. What was the logical nature at that time? In 219, the high point of 88 yuan followed the high point of consumer stocks, but in May 219, during the May Day holiday, Trump Weibo suppressed it, and then the market collapsed to 28 when it opened. At that time, the computer was in the range of 65-68. At that time, the pessimistic expectation could not be compared with the bottom of the epidemic, but at least it was worse than now! I recorded it in my personal memo.

Therefore, dynamically, it is not that the computer has not risen this year, but that the stock price has returned to around 68 since May 219! And peaked in 62 yuan in July 218.

more than two years, the range of 62-68. Next year, the annual online shift will be about 62-65.

the buying model of value investment must be the smile curve fixed investment method, which is a supporting strategy and must develop good trading habits.

Personal Thinking Memo

There will be a very frustrating stage in the future, which may be time or decline. Investors should be psychologically prepared. Of course, the strategy of defeating most people on the road of investment must be very anti-human, and the operation is not difficult, but the mental maturity is very demanding.

I'm not sure whether the computer can soar in the future and how much it can soar. I just want to talk about my shallow understanding based on the relative valuation method and the logical qualitative valuation.

no invalid arguments, no stock recommendation. Shallow thinking

Investment needs faith.