The pre-loss of tourism is 3 trillion yuan, and the capital chain of the whole industry is tight.

Tourism is a highly sensitive industry to the environment, which is vulnerable to the impact and influence of unexpected events at home and abroad, thus leading to serious recession and landslide and forming a tourism crisis. According to the academic classification of crisis events, the National novel coronavirus Incident belongs to "epidemic infectious diseases" and the first-class classification is "natural disasters and man-made disasters". Almost all market segments of tourism involve crowd gathering and socializing, which is different from other crisis events that only affect specific market segments. For example, international relations only affect inbound and outbound passengers, and the epidemic window period will undoubtedly have a comprehensive impact on tourism.

First, the position of China tourism in the national economy

China's tourism industry plays an important role in the national economy. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 14 to 20 18, the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP was 10.39%, 10.2%,1.0% and/kloc respectively.

In 20 18, the comprehensive contribution of tourism in China to China's GDP was 9.94 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world, and the number of employed people contributed by tourism was 799 100, ranking first in the world. It can be seen that China's tourism plays an important role in the national economy and even the world economy. The more important tourism is to the national economy, the greater its influence will be.

Second, the impact of the epidemic on tourism in China

This epidemic has the most serious impact on tourism, far exceeding the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2003. Not only because of the continuing uncertainty of the epidemic situation, but also because of the changes in China's economic structure in the past 17 years, consumption, especially tourism consumption, has occupied a higher proportion, and the economic cycle is also in a different position, so its impact on tourism is not as good as that in the SARS period. Moreover, this epidemic occurred during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work of the tourism enterprises involved after the holiday was forced to be postponed. The direct and indirect impact on tourism is reflected in the Spring Festival Golden Week, the first quarter and even the whole year.

1. First, short-term direct impact

1) 1. Impact on the Golden Week of Spring Festival Tourism: Major institutions predict that the number of tourists in the Spring Festival in 2020 will exceed 450 million, an increase of 8% compared with the Spring Festival in 20 19, and the market size is about 555 billion yuan. Due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, the predicted value was lost instantly. At present, although there is no comprehensive statistics on the Golden Week tourism, we can see its impact from the following data:

(1) Traffic data: The number of passengers sent by transportation channels dropped significantly: According to the data of the Ministry of Communications, from 1 to 3 1, the national railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation * * * sent a total of1.258 million passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6. Among them, the number of passengers sent by railway decreased10.7%; The number of passengers sent by highway decreased by 22.1%; Passengers sent by water decreased by 34.0%; The number of passengers sent by civil aviation decreased 14.4%.

(2) Number of trips during the Golden Week (New Year's Eve-New Year's Day): If we study the data during this year's Spring Festival Golden Week, the decline will be even greater. The seven days from New Year's Eve to New Year's Day were originally the week with the largest number of people traveling in Spring Festival travel rush. During the Spring Festival Golden Week in 20 19 (from February 4th to February 10), the number of people traveling in seven days was as high as 42 10/00000, while during the Spring Festival Golden Week this year, the number of people traveling nationwide was from June 24th to June 30th.

2)2. Subsequent effects

From the perspective of tourism supply, tourism as a whole has been affected. At present, people in the whole travel agency industry are unemployed, travel agencies are losing money in an all-round way, and small and medium-sized travel agencies are facing bankruptcy and bankruptcy; Hotels have been closed down, the occupancy rate has dropped sharply in a short period of time, the operating income has been hit hard, and many enterprises are even in a state of basic closure; The flight is cancelled or grounded, and the inbound tourism is seriously damaged; The scenic spot is also required to be completely closed, which can not generate income, and the passenger flow may not rebound immediately after the epidemic ends; The value of tourism stock market has fallen sharply, and the stocks of sub-sectors such as scenic spots, travel agencies and restaurants have fallen sharply; The wages of employees in the tourism industry have been greatly reduced.

From the demand side, due to the severe epidemic situation, tourists' willingness to travel has dropped significantly. In fact, before the announcement of the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, many consumers had voluntarily cancelled their travel plans during and after the Spring Festival, so as to avoid crowds gathering and going out to the greatest extent.

Therefore, at the critical juncture of the national people's fight against the epidemic, the domestic tourism industry is facing an empty window period, or even an unprecedented industry crisis, and the entire industrial chain will suffer huge losses.

2. Second, the long-term indirect impact

The indirect impact of the epidemic on tourism has been reflected for a long time, and the lowest point of tourism appeared in the two quarters after the outbreak of the epidemic. The concentrated expression is that the epidemic situation has a lasting impact on tourism performance, which has a certain lag, indicating that consumers' willingness to travel is difficult to recover in a short time. Outbound and inbound tourism may experience a downturn, and the degree of impact depends on the speed of epidemic control and the implementation of overseas control measures and tourism revitalization plans. The long-term indirect impact is reflected in the following two aspects:

1) 1, the tourism market began to shrink, and conferences and exhibitions were postponed or cancelled one after another;

2)2. Tourism psychology has changed, and the public's fear and anxiety have shaken consumers' confidence and willingness to travel to a certain extent.

Third, the challenges facing the industry.

On the whole, the epidemic will bring challenges to China's tourism industry, participants in all aspects of the industrial chain and international tourism cooperation, which can be summarized as income loss, coping with cash flow difficulties, dealing with the aftermath and close international cooperation.

1. Loss of income.

The domestic tourism market mainly relies on three time periods to make money: Spring Festival holiday, summer vacation and National Day. Affected by the epidemic, the tourism income during the Spring Festival holiday has been greatly reduced, which means that the national tourism industry has directly lost13 of its income. According to the analysis of 2 1 century business report by Wu Bihu, director of Peking University Tourism Research and Planning Center: "If the three-month harvest period is reduced by 60% and the three-month recovery period is reduced by 30%, it is estimated that the national tourism industry will lose nearly 3 trillion yuan this year."

2. For tourism enterprises, besides the loss of business income, cash shortage is also a big challenge brought by the epidemic.

Cancellation of orders in a short time makes the cash flow of upstream suppliers, such as airlines and tourism products suppliers, midstream distributors, such as travel agencies, online travel platforms and agents, and even the whole industry very tight.

If the strength is not enough to cope with the difficulties, they may choose to lay off employees or reduce their salary in the early stage. However, if the domestic tourism market continues to slump for more than three months, it means the risk of capital chain break. Most small and medium-sized tourism enterprises will find it difficult to maintain their operations, and they will only face the break of capital chain and bankruptcy.

3. the aftermath.

After the outbreak of the epidemic, a large number of subscriptions were cancelled, which made all links face enormous processing pressure. For example, online travel platforms and airlines need to rebuild the free refund system in a short time, and it is difficult for midstream links to handle huge orders, upstream and downstream conflicts and travel contract disputes, international cooperation and so on.

This epidemic constitutes force majeure. Due to the adjustment of tourists' itinerary, especially the tourism enterprises that quit the tour or refund their fees, many industries and fields are involved, and even many countries or regions, there will definitely be differences in understanding about what is a reasonable appeal and how tourists and travel agencies can solve the follow-up problems through consultation according to contracts and relevant laws. Therefore, the contradictions and contract disputes that may follow are potential derivative problems.

In addition, tourism is naturally international and greatly affected by the epidemic, which requires a lot of bilateral and multilateral cooperation. For security reasons, many countries or regions in the world have adopted immigration control measures for China tourists, and information such as international flights also changes at any time. How to protect the lives and health of millions of inbound and outbound tourists and prevent the spread of the epidemic requires close interaction between visa, aviation, immigration, customs, public security, tourism and other departments, and requires a lot of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

Fourth, coping strategies.

In view of the impact and challenges of the epidemic on tourism, China tourism should take countermeasures from the following aspects:

1. government and tourism

(1)) Do a good job in the prevention and control of the tourism industry.

Continue to strengthen the command and dispatch of the whole industry, and the tourism administrative departments at all levels should set up a special epidemic response leading group, adjust the work deployment in time, and do a good job in the prevention and control of the tourism industry. For example, all tourism business units are required to carry out strict cleaning and disinfection, do a good job in scientific prevention and control, and ensure that domestic and foreign tourists and tourism industry staff are not infected in all aspects of tourism reception. And specially formed a supervision and inspection team to go to various places for inspection.

Implement. Attach great importance to the health and safety of foreign tourists traveling abroad, and do a good job in prevention and control with civil aviation, customs and other relevant departments.

(2)(2) Give special subsidies and support to tourism enterprises.

Under the influence of the epidemic, the tourism industry suffered heavy losses, and some policies such as free refund and reform caused many enterprises to suffer huge losses and cash flow difficulties. The government should help the tourism industry to recover as soon as possible, avoid the closure of a large number of small and medium-sized tourism enterprises, stabilize tourism employment, give special funds to the tourism industry, and increase tourism development funds and even loan plans.

(3)(3) Make a plan to revitalize the tourism industry.

The government should actively formulate plans to promote the revitalization of tourism, and the prevention and control of tourism and marketing propaganda should be carried out simultaneously, so that people's lives can return to normal as soon as possible. Once the epidemic is over, the tourism revitalization plan will be implemented quickly to revitalize China's tourism economy from the aspects of restoring domestic tourism confidence, global publicity and attracting inbound tourists.

It is suggested that the National Tourism Administration and other tourism administrative departments formulate the following overall revitalization plans for tourism:

(1) "Safe China-Safe China" Plan

Once the epidemic situation is under control, the National Tourism Administration, in conjunction with other related industries, such as civil aviation, hotels and travel agencies, will quickly launch a tourism promotion plan to eliminate the psychological impact of the epidemic situation on domestic and foreign tourists and rebuild the image of China as a safe tourist destination. Infectious virus is a potential safety hazard, which will have a long-term impact on people's psychology and leave long-term sequelae in people's hearts after the crisis. On the one hand, the government should urge tourism enterprises to implement various preventive work and provide a safe tourism environment; on the other hand, it should restore people's confidence and stimulate tourism consumption through transparent information release channels and communication methods. For inbound tourism, the tourism safety guarantee scheme can also be improved. For example, in the tourism stage of China, if tourists are infected with local infectious diseases, they can get corresponding medical compensation. It is hoped that the protection plan will build up the confidence of tourists to travel to China.

(2) "Happy Going Out" Plan

The launch and implementation of the plan aims to encourage citizens to go outdoors and go to the whole country, thus restoring the vitality of domestic tourism. After the outbreak, it is necessary to increase media propaganda, strengthen the construction of tourism products, and restore and stimulate domestic tourism consumption.

After the outbreak, the government can provide consumption subsidies by implementing free or half-price measures in scenic spots, or by cooperating with travel agencies, online travel platforms and hotels. , thus stimulating tourism consumption, while driving the income of travel agencies, transportation, catering and other industries.

(3) "Beautiful China-Beautiful China" project.

Compared with revitalizing domestic tourism, it is more difficult to stimulate inbound tourism. The global panic caused by the epidemic can be highlighted by the flight restrictions in and out of China, the repatriation of Wuhan citizens from chartered flight, and even the beating of German students. In a short time, people's impressions of the China epidemic will not disappear so easily. After the revival of tourism in China, inbound tourism can be stimulated according to the attraction factors of inbound tourists.

First of all, international tourism promotion should tell the story of China well, and connect a number of China tourism characteristics and events in the global tourism promotion plan to promote the recovery of inbound tourism. Secondly, tourism enterprises can provide: more customized travel arrangements to increase their travel satisfaction; More convenient services, including air tickets, hotels, scenic spots, restaurants, visas, tax refund procedures, etc. ; More attractive prices and other ways to attract inbound tourists. National brigade

The Tourism Bureau can formulate a set of incentive measures to encourage tourism enterprises to publicize the "Beautiful China" tourism plan. Enterprises related to the tourism industry chain can cooperate and join hands to jointly launch promotional and incentive tourism projects for major source countries, such as preferential flights, package tours, and various hotels, restaurants, tickets and other price concessions. It can also attract more tourists to China to promote exhibitions, medical care, study tours and other theme tourism, and package and promote them according to the market characteristics of various countries to meet the needs of tourists in different market segments.

(4) Strengthen regional tourism cooperation.

All tourist areas in China open their own markets, remove obstacles to tourism development, create barrier-free tourist areas without policy obstacles, market obstacles, traffic obstacles and service obstacles, and provide tourists with a tourist environment with loose policies, smooth traffic, mutual benefit and satisfactory service. Further expanding the intensity, depth and breadth of regional tourism cooperation will make the cooperation subjects more active, the cooperation level richer and the cooperation content more comprehensive, thus achieving a win-win situation.

2. Tourism enterprises

In addition to actively preventing and controlling the epidemic in accordance with national and industry requirements, tourism enterprises should also actively carry out the following self-help activities:

1)( 1) Adjust the focus of work in the short term and strengthen self-construction.

It is impossible for the epidemic to subside immediately in the short term, and during this period, tourism enterprises are bound to bear the losses themselves. Tourism enterprises should take emergency measures, reduce expenses, strengthen self-construction, strengthen internal management, do a good job in training tourism professionals, enhance competitiveness, build brands, upgrade themselves while resting, lay the foundation for the next stage of development, and achieve "turning disadvantages into advantages". For travel agencies, we can strengthen management and personnel training, reduce costs, and explore new routes and new product development; For the hotel industry, due to the large family business, employees can be arranged to take vacations and conduct business training to reduce costs. At the same time, it can develop food and beverage take-out business to increase income, reduce house prices and attract customers at low prices. For scenic spots, we can strengthen scenic spot construction, new product development and scenic spot management.

2 Cost control

For an enterprise, the security of funds is the basis to ensure its survival in the market. Even with the support and help of the government, enterprises themselves need to absorb the cost losses caused by the epidemic. Tourism enterprises of all sizes must evaluate and make decisions, including layoffs, business integration and enterprise integration.

3)(3) Pre-purchase/low-price promotion

Develop pre-order/low-price promotion strategy in advance. After the recovery of the epidemic, tourism enterprises can better control costs and attract consumers' consumption through pre-purchase or low-price promotion, including hotel, transportation and scenic spot tickets.

(The author Zhou Jieru is an associate professor at Antai College of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiaotong University and a member of the tourism industry research team of Antai College of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiaotong University. )

Editor: Wang Yiting