How much gold can China people buy?

20 13 China's gold consumption data in the first half of the year shocked the world. Whether this demand coincides with the "Chinese aunt" snapping up gold or not, the pinyin dama has been quoted by the international media and has become the English word of Chinese aunt, comparable to China Kung Fu. So, for gold consumption, is the China market heading for the peak, or is it just beginning? For the global consumer market, the ultimate biggest consumption item for ordinary families should be the house. Once you have a house, the space for further breakthrough is very limited. Yachts, private jets, luxury cars, etc. They are not on the necessary consumption list of ordinary families, so after buying a house, their family's greater consumption began to enter the fields of jewelry, tourism, eating and drinking. This law is not only in line with China, but also with European and American countries which are already developed economies. The rich stage of European and American economies has lasted for more than half a century. However, most families have not exceeded the consumption of real estate, and real estate is still the highest consumption of ordinary families in various countries. At present, people in China talk about the color change of houses, but the overall trend is irreversible, and the living area and the number of houses owned by ordinary families are increasing. The government work report at the beginning of the year showed that by the end of last year, the per capita housing area in China had reached 33 square meters; Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that by 20 15, that is, by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, every household in China may have 1.08 sets. More and more people already own real estate, and after consuming the house, these people will surely become the main participants in other consumption fields. According to the data released by China Gold Association recently, the national gold consumption reached 706.36 tons in the first half of 20 13, an increase of 246.78 tons over the first half of 20 12 and a year-on-year increase of 53.7%. Among them, gold for jewelry was 383.86 tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%. You may ask, compared with the price of the house, gold consumption is nothing. How does the house affect gold consumption? In fact, many people have the habit of buying new shoes before changing socks. In China, the house is the premise of family consumption. For the consumption of gold, the China market seems to have just started. A year's jewelry consumption of 383.86 tons seems to be relatively large, but as long as it is carefully analyzed, this figure does not actually represent the peak of gold consumption in China. Last year, about100000 couples registered to get married in China. If each married person consumes a gold ring weighing 5 grams, the consumption will reach 654.38+000 tons. If the woman buys another 654.38+05g gold necklace, she will spend 654.38+050 tons of gold. This does not include the "Chinese aunt" who snapped up the gold market. For the present China market, the consumption of gold exists not only in the wedding market, but also in the jewelry market. In the first half of 20 13, the consumption of gold bars in China market reached 278.8 1 ton, up 86.5% year-on-year. In the case of Liu Tienan, which has just caused a great uproar, there are 9 kilograms of gold bars that Liu Tienan embezzled and accepted bribes. We can never agree that bribery is a kind of market for gold bars. Just like a house, it was originally a good thing to live and work in peace and contentment, but it was used as a tool for bribery by some people. This is not a problem of the house, but a problem of people. As a means of wealth storage with reserve value, gold bars are one of the inevitable free choices of private property of ordinary families. I have a simple inference, China market, behind the house is gold. According to the development speed of real estate in China, it is just around the corner to reach the standard of 1. 1 suite in developed countries. After the house, the demand for living and decoration cannot be ignored. This year's massive consumption in China's gold market, although seemingly benefiting from the drop in international gold prices, is actually a large-scale primitive release of gold consumption by China families. Imagine if the price of cars dropped by 20% in the same period, would people snap up cars? For consumer goods such as automobiles, it is time for Chinese families to popularize and calculate the use cost, but the consumption of gold is still filling the demand gap. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, in the first quarter of 20 13, China has become the world's largest consumer of physical gold, accounting for 33% of global gold consumption. What does China people's pursuit of gold reflect? In today's China, people's pursuit of gold is not simply the pursuit of valuables or wealth, but an emphasis on people themselves in the process of social progress. For thousands of years, the people of China have never been so fond of beauty, so free and so attached importance to themselves. The beauty of gold is equal to the beauty of human mind. When people love themselves and value their rights and image, gold is the best ornament. It can reflect the openness and wealth of a society, and also observe the degree to which a person is respected by laws, systems and rules. Some economists and professional analysts in the stock and bond markets are generally not optimistic about the gold market. Mainly gold has no interest, no eggs, and a storage fee. In fact, just like many successful men fall in love with mistresses. From an analytical point of view, this will not only bring profits to men, but also cost money to support them. More importantly, there are risks. But the fact is that things like Murdoch's love for Wendi Deng are staged in every corner of the world all the time. Gold is a desire of both men and women. Desire is only satisfied and unsatisfied, not should and shouldn't, scientific and unscientific, rational and irrational. With the advance of globalization, the securitization of credit assets, the development of contract spirit and human creativity, people's desire for gold is no longer as unscrupulous or bloody as in history. People's desire for gold has become a natural consumption, and a sense of accomplishment can only be obtained through career and struggle. There is no point in discussing whether gold is useful. What can be more convincing than the eternal "love" of human beings? ! It is also the data of the Gold Association. In the first half of the year, China's gold output was 192.82 tons, up 8.94% year-on-year. In the same period, China's gold output was only 192.82 tons, and the gold gap reached 5 13.54 tons, accounting for 72.7% of the total consumption. There are a few points to understand. Although China's gold production has increased year-on-year, these added values do not represent the optimistic trend in the future. It takes a long time to explore and smelt gold. At present, the productive mineral deposits are generally put into production three or five years ago. The output of gold, like the output of a house, is relatively limited, and it is much more difficult to supply gold than a house in terms of production and supply cycle, technological innovation, cost control and space utilization. The longest supply and demand cycle of a house is only three years, while the shortest supply and demand cycle of gold is more than three years. South Africa used to be a gold empire, with an annual output of gold 1000 tons, and now the output has dropped to 200 tons. With the improvement of domestic environmental protection requirements and the soaring cost of manpower and electricity, it seems that China's output is increasing, but compared with the increase of demand and the gradual peak of production capacity, I personally expect that the gap between supply and demand of gold will not be greatly reversed in five years. There is an interesting example. In the 1930s, the global economy was in crisis, and diamond sales dropped sharply. At that time, De Beers, the owner of the diamond market, launched a marketing idea, positioning diamonds as a "symbol of loyal love" and widely publicized it among young people. Since then, young people all over the world have to buy a diamond ring when they get married, which represents the eternity of love. In China, the gold market does not need marketing. In the poorest period of people's life in modern history, young people in China need to buy gold ornaments when they get married. Generally, those with more money are three-piece sets (earrings, necklaces and rings), and those with less money generally choose one. How much gold can China people buy? This seems to be a difficult prediction. The market generally measures the expectation of gold demand by gold grams per capita, and I think another point that cannot be ignored is the time node, because the demand depends on various factors, including income, social culture, national policy, historical background, product price and so on. On the whole, just like China people's consumption of houses, the potential has always existed, but the formation of large-scale consumption is in the last decade. According to my point of view, the consumption of gold in China market will last for at least ten years. According to the conservative estimation of the average annual consumption market of 800 tons (706 tons in the first half of 20 13), it needs 8000 tons in ten years. In other words, the consumption of gold in China market may reach 8,000 tons in the next decade. If the gold production in China is increased to 500 tons per year (201first half of three years 192 tons), it will take at least 16 years to produce 8,000 tons. In fact, 8000 tons is not an astronomical figure. An institution of the Central Bank of China ate 1.054 tons, and the Indian private gold reserve was nearly 20,000 tons. In terms of economic cycle and historical potential, as a country with a pioneering gold culture in Asia and even the whole world, China people's consumption of gold is no less than that of India.