Why Dalian has been surpassed by Qingdao in recent years?

We compared the GDP gap between Qingdao and Dalian since the reform and opening up, and then found that Dalian was almost catching up with Qingdao before 2000, just like the relationship between Wuhan and Chengdu now. After 2000, Dalian began to collapse, especially after 20 15, Dalian's GDP began to lag behind Qingdao's GDP. Among them, we caught two time nodes, one is 2000.

In 2000, Dalian's GDP began to be surpassed by Qingdao. Why? We investigated a data. In 2000, the number of primary school students in Dalian began to decrease. In other words, from this year on, the population of Dalian is slowly losing. Where did it go?

Three major cities: Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

In 2000, in the heyday of reform and opening up, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration represented by Shanghai began to rise, and the Pearl River Delta represented by Guangzhou and Shenzhen also rose. A large number of northeast people began to leave their homes, and Dalian was no exception. According to the current household registration data in Shenzhen, 6.5438+0.2 million Dalian people have settled in Shenzhen. If we only consider the resident population, there are nearly 300,000 Dalian people in Shenzhen, 250,000 in Guangzhou and 300,000 in Shanghai.

Similarly, the total population of Qingdao is also rising steadily, and now the total population has reached 9.29 million, 23 1 10,000 more than that of Dalian.

From 20 15 to 20 16, Dalian's GDP showed a negative growth of 20 15, which was the cold winter of the northeast economy. The three northeastern provinces experienced negative economic growth, and Shenyang, Changchun, Dalian, Harbin and F4 in the northeast collectively fell, resulting in a serious decline in urban competitiveness and economic environment.

People began to spread a saying: "investment is not as good as Shanhaiguan", which is the pain in the hearts of compatriots in Northeast China.

A few days ago, entrepreneur Pan Shiyi said, "There are no entrepreneurs in Northeast China". In fact, it does not mean that there are no entrepreneurs in the Northeast, and there are no particularly large entrepreneurs with contributions and influence in the Northeast.

To sum up, it can be reflected that the northeast is not a poor regional position or a poor industrial base, but the business environment continues to improve. Then what can save your northeast? What will save you from Dalian? I think, only by scraping the bone to cure poison, improving the business investment environment and ecological environment, controlling housing prices and attracting talents can we hope to rise in the future!

In fact, the two cities are similar. There is not much difference between Dalian and Qingdao in terms of historical location, historical experience, urban positioning and so on.

Moreover, the two cities have been developing hand in hand, and although they have surpassed each other during the period, it is obviously inconclusive who is strong and who is weak.

The two most similar cities, Dalian and Qingdao, are very similar. They have the same experience in modern history and the same situation in recent years. As a member of 14 coastal development city and one of the five cities with separate plans, the two cities are inevitably compared.

Of course, many people also like to compare with each other.

In the early days of reform and opening up, Dalian surpassed Qingdao in economic performance to some extent, but not much in essence. Subsequently, Qingdao also developed well, especially Qingdao Port, which repeatedly created miracles and made the city famous.

Later it entered the stage of attracting investment. At first, Dalian still had certain advantages, but it was finally leveled. Coupled with the rise of national industries, Qingdao's economy is undoubtedly stronger than Dalian's.

Where did Dalian lose? If we look at the data before 20 10, there is actually no difference between Dalian and Qingdao. Qingdao is sometimes high, Dalian is sometimes high, and the data is not much different.

However, after 20 10 years, the gap between the two began to really widen.

From the state point of view, Qingdao seems to have found the most suitable position to exert its strength, and then it is thriving.

On the other hand, Dalian lacks the starting point and is full of energy.

As for why Dalian is like this, in fact, everyone knows what is going on. There are both macro differences and micro influences, which started from people and lost to others.

The brain drain in Dalian has been serious in recent years, which can be said to be a heavy hammer. In addition, there are many problems in industrial transformation. This is not only a matter of time, but also a matter of talent.

In other words, the main reason for Dalian's economic downturn now lies in people, including those who decide to develop and those who support it.

To tell the truth, many Dalian people, including Dalian people, can only express such hopes for the current development situation and direction of the city, but have no such confidence.

The city began to become disappointing. Of course, Dalian is not the only disappointing city in recent years.

Although the rapid development of Qingdao is surprising, it is also accompanied by the problem of high housing prices.

I have some friends in Qingdao, who happen to be local people. For them, for people who have a house or even several houses at home, high housing prices are of course a good thing.

However, when the housing price in Qingdao is too high for migrant workers to afford, they can only look at the ocean and sigh, either lowering the housing price or accepting some talents to choose other cities for a better life.

Of course, if you choose to settle down, Dalian is a better choice. Both Qingdao and Dalian will say how good their environment is.

However, just from the perspective of settling down, I want to ask you, do you want your children to take the college entrance examination in Shandong or Liaoning?

The prosperity of Dalian is an illusion. Beautiful streets, high-rise buildings and beautiful landscapes are all flowers in the water and the moon in the mirror without the support of the real economy. Without a good real economy, people will not have a good income and have to go far away to seek better development. This is the real situation in Dalian. Qingdao is different. The marine industry is thriving. Qingdao Pisa, Haier Electric Appliances, Starfish TV and other enterprises not only attack the city in the domestic market, but also go international. This is a prosperous, healthy and prosperous city.

Author: Zifei fish

There are many twin cities in China, among which Dalian and Qingdao are one. They have many similarities. They are all port cities, and the first batch of coastal cities that are open to the outside world are all cities with separate plans.

Before and after the founding of New China, the Northeast has always been the economic leader of China, and Dalian's economic status ranks among the best in the country. Before 1993, Dalian's economic strength was superior to that of Qingdao.

Cartography: children are not fish; Data come from statistical yearbooks of Qingdao and Dalian. Unit: 100 million yuan

After that, Qingdao overtook Dalian, and the gap between them became wider and wider.

So why was Dalian surpassed by Qingdao? Mainly due to the overall economic downturn in Northeast China. After the reform and opening up, the economic development in Northeast China began to fall into a dilemma. Under the influence of the official standard thought, under the joint action of some rigid systems and lazy thinking, the northeast economy began to weaken.

Cartography: children are not fish; The data comes from China port container network.

Dalian is one of the four largest cities in Northeast China and one of the most severely affected cities. Dalian's economic weakness is mainly manifested in GDP growth and port throughput.

The above picture shows the throughput data of Qingdao Port and Dalian Port since 1990. As can be seen from the above figure, before 2000, the port throughput of Dalian was higher than that of Qingdao. 200 1 After China's entry into WTO, the port city has ushered in the greatest development opportunity, and the port throughput has advanced by leaps and bounds. However, due to the influence of the overall economy in Northeast China, Dalian lacked stamina and was eventually surpassed by Qingdao.

Dalian's weakness is mainly rigid system and single industry. Qingdao, on the other hand, relies on scientific research and innovative enterprises, and its economy is booming. There are well-known enterprises such as Haier, Hisense, Aucma and Double Star.

Therefore, if Dalian wants to surpass Qingdao again, the single industry is the most urgent problem to be solved at present.

Let's look at the total GDP of these two companies in recent years.

Demographic situation

Looking at real estate, the demand of permanent population

For cities with foreign trade ports, it mainly depends on the radiation situation in the hinterland. In fact, neither of them is good at Shandong's big balance model. The economy has no highland, it cannot attract high-end talents, and the brain drain is serious; There is no external traffic, no hub for network traffic in the province, and no highland for logistics and distribution. Qingdao can't form a logistics distribution port in the end. This is caused by the difference between regional economic environment and urban macro-planning.

The weakness of Dalian's development is related to the overall depression of the economic environment in Northeast China. After all, regional economy and urban economy are inseparable. Although some provincial capital cities are located in the general regional economy, they can build a city wholeheartedly because of their status as provincial capital cities. However, Dalian is not the provincial capital, and all resources in the province cannot be given priority to Dalian. Dalian itself has no strong neighbors to complement each other, so the development of individual combat is a bit embarrassing. The other is the overall macro-planning of the city. In recent years, Dalian has kept a low profile on its urban positioning. Tourism and software industry seem to be unknown from the past national attention, and their influence and attraction seem to be declining. Although many aspects are still growing steadily in terms of data, the speed of diversified development and economic growth is obviously weaker than that of other cities at the same level, and even Wuxi has been squeezed out of the new first-tier cities in the recent urban classification.

The rise of Qingdao seems to have started from Dalian's economic catch-up. The development of Qingdao mainly benefits from Shandong's balanced urban development model and clear economic development ideas. Qingdao is surrounded by economically strong cities such as Yantai, Weihai and Weifang, and more than 20 intercity railways leave every day. At present, the one-hour metropolitan area has been formed. With the coordinated development of economy and tourism industry in several cities, there are ways to promote the development model of urban agglomeration through resource sharing and mutual benefit. Qingdao is the earliest brand capital in China, but it relied heavily on Haier, Hisense, Aucma, Double Star and Tsingtao Beer in its early days. Although it is not brand capital now, the dependence on these enterprises has been reduced a lot. Instead, it pays more attention to the introduction of powerful foreign companies and domestic leading enterprises in emerging industries, and pays more attention to the shaping of the financial industry. Of course, the result is obvious. At present, more than 100 foreign-funded enterprises in the Fortune 500 have settled in Qingdao, and 17 foreign-funded banks have settled in Qingdao. Qingdao's brand and financial influence are increasing year by year. In addition, the development of tourism is more targeted and the investment direction is clearer. After the number of tourists and tourism revenue both surpassed Dalian, tourism revenue ranked in the top ten in China for many years. Qingdao has a good development model and employment needs, and has been engaged in the introduction of famous schools and talents in recent years. It not only introduced 985 campuses such as Fudan University, Shandong University, Harbin Engineering University and Beihang University, but also fully liberalized undergraduate education. These are the footprints of long-term macro-planning that people can see. Personally, I think Qingdao will once again enter the accelerated development stage and enter a new fast lane in one or two years.

It can be said that Dalian started earlier and developed smoothly, and the specific reasons will not be mentioned here. Everyone knows that. Since the two cities are compared, there are certainly many similarities. First, they are all port cities, important seaports in the economic circle of this province, and are in charge of the leaders of this economic zone. Second, they all belong to temperate monsoon climate zone, with pleasant climate and tourist cities. Third, both cities are mountainous areas with many historical sites and buildings. Having said the same point, it's time to talk about the reasons for the gap. First, Qingdao, as the economic leader and port in the region, is full of economic vitality and leads the country in economic growth rate, relying on the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone. However, with the decline of the old industrial base in Northeast China, Dalian has shown obvious lack of growth. We should know that the three northeastern provinces have been declining year after year in the national GDP ranking, and even fell to the first place in recent years. In terms of development momentum, the gap will gradually increase. Second, look at China's big port cities, Zhuhai, and even Xiamen, Shanghai, Qingdao, Tianjin and Dalian. Behind every large port city is a big economic circle. Without the support of economic circle and vitality, the role of port throughput will be weakened, and the gap between Dalian and Qingdao is here. At the same time, Dalian is too close to Qingdao and Tianjin, which is also a reason for the restriction. Third, both cities have a large number of historical buildings, but Dalian started earlier. At that time, the concept of cultural relics protection was completely ignored, so Dalian almost razed all historical buildings to the ground. Although the whole city is young, it has lost its historical flavor and lost a point in its humanistic and historical feelings. Qingdao's development started late. It is precisely because of this that when the concept of cultural relics protection is taken seriously, a large number of historical buildings have been preserved in time. Now Qingdao is very distinctive, that is, the old city has a large number of historical buildings and a vibrant modern city atmosphere. One more thing. Fourth, Qingdao and Dalian are both mountainous cities with inconvenient transportation. The Lushun District of Dalian has not been fully integrated so far, and the traffic in the old city of Qingdao is not smooth, with a lot of one-way streets and bends, which seems to be tied with Dalian, and Qingdao is also restricted by Jiaozhou Bay, even worse than Dalian. However, with the completion of the cross-sea tunnel and cross-sea bridge, the west coast of Qingdao has been revitalized at once, and the West Coast New District has been rated as a national new district, which belongs to the same level as Shanghai Pudong and Tianjin Binhai New Area. At present, many urban functions in Qingdao have moved to the West Coast New District, giving a lot of preferential policies, which is equivalent to a big leap in economic aggregate, attracting a lot of investment and talents, building the Oriental Film Capital and moving towards the largest film and television base in Asia ... However, with the decline of economic development momentum, the brain drain in Northeast China is serious, and the gap between Dalian and the outside world is not a fraction. Fifth, both Qingdao and Dalian want to attract universities, but Qingdao seems to be more capable. After all, the West Coast New District needs money and land, and only people can have talents. In the long run, the gap will get bigger and bigger.

I have lived in Dalian for 18 years, and the gap will get bigger and bigger. For one reason and another, the country's positioning is different. The State Council approved that the population of Dalian should be controlled within 5 million, and the population of Qingdao should reach120,000 by 2022, which is enough to show the future development direction and urban positioning, one is a general city and the other is a metropolis.

I believe everyone in Dalian knows why Dalian has become like this.

Dalian is located in the northeast, and like Qingdao, it is the earliest 14 coastal open cities, all of which are sub-provincial cities with separate plans and the largest port in Northeast Asia. From the founding of the People's Republic of China to the beginning of reform, these two cities were both star cities. Before 1993, Dalian's GDP was higher than Qingdao's, and Dalian was greatly affected by the overall economic downturn in Northeast China, which is the reason why the so-called "investment is not as good as Shanhaiguan". There are many state-owned enterprises and resource enterprises in Northeast China. Once the resources are dug away, the economic decline will be unstoppable. Dalian's resource export advantage in Northeast China has also disappeared, and the cargo throughput of Dalian Port is lower than that of Qingdao.

The problem in Northeast China is an old one. After the first round of bankruptcy integration and subsequent closure, the air quality in Northeast China has been greatly improved, but the GDP growth rate is at the bottom of the country. After two rounds of "Revitalizing the Northeast", the Northeast is still unable to rejuvenate. The rigidity and lack of enterprising of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China led to a large number of Northeastern people fleeing, especially a large number of college graduates working in different places. It is a pity, and the situation in Dalian can be imagined!

Qingdao, backed by Shandong, the third largest economic province in China, has developed by leaps and bounds in the past ten years, and has entered the ranks of "trillion clubs" last year. Dalian in the northeast is secretly hurting people. When will Northeast China get out of trouble?