In the first half of the year, mall's "passenger recovery war" was successful! The long-lost crowd is back.

According to the data monitoring of Win Business University, the average daily passenger flow of typical shopping centers in China in June has recovered to 92.9% of the pre-epidemic level.

for most shopping centers, the "passenger flow recovery war" that lasted for half a year has finally come to an end. Among them, there are "top students" projects that don't stop at "recovery", but also produce transcripts that double the passenger flow, which is enviable.

However, some people are happy and others are sad. The businesses in some cities are still digesting the negative impact of the epidemic, and there are also many people who are devastated.

on the whole, in the second half of the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the problem facing shopping centers is still how to turn traffic into sales, help merchants improve their performance quickly and make up for the losses in the first half of the year.

first, the national mall passenger flow recovered by 92.9%, and eight cities including Shenzhen and Chengdu took the lead in "full of blood"

Looking back at the first half of the year, the COVID-19 epidemic was like a sudden "bomb", which caught the global entity business off guard.

During the Spring Festival, the passenger flow of shopping centers across the country began to fall off a cliff, thus losing the "Golden Week". In February, the overall passenger flow fell to the lowest value, and the average daily passenger flow of shopping malls across the country was less than 3,.

although the passenger flow has bottomed out in March after the resumption of work and production, and the fluctuation range of passenger flow in all tier cities has reached the peak in the first half of the year, how many months will it take for the passenger flow of shopping centers nationwide to recover? Faced with many uncertainties, no one could answer the question at that time.

It's exciting that from April to June, China's epidemic situation was properly prevented and controlled, and a series of preferential policies were introduced, and shopping centers also constantly optimized their business measures to boost passenger flow.

In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 3,352.6 billion yuan, which was basically the same as that in the same period of last year. People's consumer confidence basically recovered, and the average daily passenger flow of shopping centers nationwide recovered to the pre-epidemic level of 92.9%. ("Pre-epidemic level": based on the average passenger flow data from November to December in 219, the same below)

Among them, second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities all reached the pre-epidemic level of more than 93%; Affected by the new epidemic in Beijing, the growth rate of passenger flow in first-tier cities dropped from 28.3% in May to 1.3%, and the average daily passenger flow in June was 84.6% of the pre-epidemic level, which lagged behind the overall recovery level of the country.

Although the epidemic rebound in Beijing has brought about a "small episode", the situation of normalization of epidemic prevention and control in China has not changed, and the general trend of stable and positive consumer market has not changed. Stimulated by the summer node, the passenger flow of shopping centers will still maintain a certain growth trend. Combined with the fluctuation range of passenger flow in June, it is expected that the overall passenger flow of national shopping centers will usher in a "full blood resurrection" from July to August.

it turns out that in just a few months, China shopping center has taken the lead in recovery. Behind the improvement of data and the recovery of passenger flow, China shopping centers are facing difficulties, able to withstand risks and pressures, and have sufficient resilience and vitality.

From the perspective of typical cities, eight cities, including Shenzhen, Zibo, Wenzhou, Yantai, Jinan, Dongguan, Chengdu and Kunming, have taken the lead in completing the "great task" of comprehensive recovery and become the "leaders" with the strongest commercial resilience among first-and second-tier cities.

It is worth noting that the passenger flow pulling effect brought by weekends and holidays is still obvious. Since May 1 ST, the average daily passenger flow of typical shopping centers has entered a period of steady growth, and there will be small peaks of passenger flow every weekend and holiday. However, compared with New Year's Day holiday, the passenger flow of May Day holiday and Dragon Boat Festival holiday is about 6%, which is only "qualified". The "revolution" has not yet succeeded, and the comrades in the shopping center still need to work hard.

Second, the "king returns" in the municipal business circle, but most of the "top students" are regional+mature business circles.

From February to May, the normalization of epidemic prevention has shortened the consumption radius, and people's habit of "spending nearby" has gradually formed, which has promoted the business recovery in the regional business circle, and the passenger flow recovery in the municipal business circle is slightly behind the regional business circle. In June, the situation was reversed, and the city-level business circle with higher commercial maturity and wider customer base "the return of the king" overtook the regional business circle as a whole.

The supporting facilities in the emerging business district are relatively advanced, the projects in the business district have a relatively short establishment period, and they pay more attention to creating a comfortable and healthy shopping environment, so they can better meet the healthy consumption needs of consumers, and the passenger flow recovery situation has been ahead of the mature business district for many months.

Among the hundreds of business districts in first-tier cities, nearly 4% of the business districts have recovered to more than 9% of the pre-epidemic level. Among them:

The passenger flow of 21 business districts has completely recovered and exceeded the pre-epidemic level, which are mainly regional mature business districts, mainly serving the residents in the sub-center areas of the city, with strong consumer demand and strong business atmosphere.

among the 21 1% recovered business districts, there are 1 in Shanghai, 9 in Shenzhen and 2 in Guangzhou. Shanghai and Shenzhen business districts have strong commercial competitiveness; The passenger flow in Guangzhou business circle is scattered, but relatively stable; Beijing is slow to recover due to repeated epidemics.

Shanghai changshou road business district has won the top spot. The projects in the business district mainly serve the community, such as KING88, a shopping mall where Ma Xiansheng and Hansen live together, and Xikang Lane 189, which focuses on music themes. Although the passenger flow is not as large as the core business district, it is stable.

Among more than 2 business districts in typical second-tier cities, 55% of the business districts have recovered to more than 9% of the pre-epidemic level, and 1/4 business districts have achieved 1% recovery. Among them:

The recovery of regional mature business districts is better, and the business districts with the best recovery in Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Xi 'an, Xiamen, Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou and Harbin all belong to regional mature business districts;

Chunxi Road Business Circle in Chengdu is one of the few mature business circles at the municipal level where the passenger flow has recovered more than 1%. In the business circle, Chengdu IFS and Chengdu Ocean Taikooli are both high-end shopping malls, which still attracted dozens of brands during the epidemic period. Thanks to the return of luxury consumption, the passenger flow increased instead of falling.

Wuhan Zhuyehai Business Circle has become the only business circle in Wuhan that has successfully "counterattacked" and achieved 1% recovery. Wuhan Huiju Shopping Center in the business circle is a large suburban shopping center, operating in the mode of "home+shopping", with convenient surrounding transportation, radiating to three towns in Wuhan and even Central China, with a strong passenger flow since its opening.

On the whole, although the overall passenger flow recovery in municipal business districts and emerging business districts is better, from the perspective of subdivision, the business districts with the "top-notch" recovery momentum in first-and second-tier cities are mainly regional business districts and mature business districts.

the reasons are as follows: firstly, there are a large number of regional business districts and mature business districts, which bear most of consumers' daily consumption needs; Second, the passenger flow of the municipal business circle itself is huge, and it is not easy to recover to 89%. However, due to the immature business atmosphere, the passenger flow of the emerging business circle is generally at a low level, and both of them are difficult to play "extraordinary".

third, the malls owned by state-owned enterprises/foreign companies are full of confidence, high-end shopping malls are welcoming the "buying tide", young malls are more "immune", and small-scale projects are polarized

From the perspective of developers' attributes, the recovery degree of projects owned by state-owned enterprises/state-owned enterprises and foreign developers has reached over 9%. Central enterprises/state-owned enterprises and foreign developers have strong overall management strength, and most of them are listed groups. After the outbreak of the epidemic, they can timely launch targeted corresponding measures from the group level, which will play a positive role in boosting business confidence and attracting consumers to the scene. Typical examples are the Vientiane City series project under China Resources and the IFS series project under Wharf, and the degree of passenger flow recovery is at the forefront of the country.

From the perspective of the project grade, high-end shopping centers took the lead, and the overall recovery of passenger flow reached 96%. Under the influence of the epidemic, due to the limited travel abroad and purchasing, consumption has accelerated to return to China. In the second quarter, the domestic luxury retail market showed an active scene, and high-end shopping malls around the country also ushered in a multi-wave "buying boom". In addition, the government successively introduced policies to promote consumption return and improve duty-free shops, which played a positive role in improving the passenger flow and sales performance of high-end shopping malls. The sales of key brands in some shopping malls even exceeded the previous years' level.

judging from the opening years of the project, the younger the shopping center, the stronger its immunity and the faster its recovery. Projects within three years of opening are still in the "business-raising period", and the overall average passenger flow is relatively small. On the contrary, it is easier to attract consumers who do not like to "join in the fun" during the epidemic.

judging from the size of the project, the small shopping centers of 3,-5, have the weakest recovery and are greatly affected by this epidemic. Specifically, the recovery degree of small shopping centers is polarized: excellent ones, such as Shanghai Yuehui Plaza, the opening of many new stores and the promotion activities of linked merchants, the passenger flow has completely recovered and even reached the level of 2% before the epidemic; The worst performing project is located in Panyu University Town, Guangzhou, and the customer base is limited to college students, and the passenger flow is less than 1% before the epidemic.