Chivalrous Island Who will talk about the crux of the Northeast dilemma?

There is a lot of news around the northeast recently. Mao Zhenhua, Chairman of China Chengxin, complained that the video storm of Yabuli Ski Resort Management Committee has not subsided, and the news of "Cheating in Snow Country" began to ferment again. It is precisely because everyone cares about the revitalization of the Northeast that such news is always easy to heat up.

What is the problem in Northeast China? Studying this well may be of great significance to China as a whole. After all, Northeast China is the eldest son of * * * and China, and the problems in Northeast China also exist in different degrees throughout the country. The purpose of finding problems is to solve them, which must be solved by studying them.

What I recommend to you today is a recording of a speech made by an old leader who really knows his trade last year. His name is Zhang. He used to be the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, the director of the National Energy Administration, and the director of the office of the leading group for revitalizing the northeast of the State Council and other old industrial bases. He can be said to be a senior expert on northeast issues. Rereading old articles will help us to have a deeper rational understanding.

"We should give the Northeast a time to help them transform. Just saying something critical, discouraging, sarcastic or even sarcastic will only be self-defeating and not completely in line with reality. " The most prominent feature of this speech is that it is not emotional and is not afraid to face the problem directly. Chivalrous Island slightly abridged the original text.

complete

In recent years, the GDP growth rate of the three northeastern provinces is at the bottom of all provinces in China, which has attracted national attention. Of course, the cadres and the masses in the three northeastern provinces are more anxious. Because I used to be the director of the office of the leading group for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China in the State Council, I am more concerned and anxious about the economic situation in Northeast China.

According to statistics, from 2003 to 20 12, the economic and social development in Northeast China changed the most, and it was also a period of rapid economic development. In 2003, the total GDP of the three northeastern provinces was127.22 billion yuan, and reached 504.77 billion yuan in 2065.438+02, which was 3.97 times of the initial stage of revitalization, with an average annual growth rate of 654.38+02.5%. Especially in 2006-2008, the economic growth rate of the three northeastern provinces reached a high point. Jilin Province has maintained a high growth rate of more than 16% for two consecutive years, and its economic growth rate ranks second in China and eighth in Liaoning.

During this period, the proportion of Northeast China's economic aggregate in the four major sectors of the country still maintained an important position, and the economic growth rate of Northeast China once ranked first among the four major sectors in individual years.

The turning point of the economic downturn in Northeast China began at 2011(12.6%), and the growth rate in that year was lower than that in the previous year (13.7%) 1. 1% and 20 12. The most difficult thing is that the economic growth in 20 16 is -2%, 6.29% and 6. 17% respectively. Liaoning experienced negative growth, while Kyrgyzstan and Montenegro ranked 25th and 29th respectively. Therefore, there has been a call for a cliff-like decline in the northeast economy, which has attracted the attention of all parties.

What happened to the northeast economy?

custom

It is easy to point out the following reasons: the reform in Northeast China is not deep enough; Planned economy has a profound influence; People's concept, strong sense of official standard; If something goes wrong, it is not looking for the market, but looking for the government; Everything needs gratitude; Poor business environment; The export-oriented economy is underdeveloped; You cannot invest in Shanhaiguan.

These problems do exist.

I remember that at the beginning of the national strategy of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, the Central Organization Department and the State Council Revitalizing the Northeast Office jointly held a meeting of cadres at or above the division level in Harbin to preach the strategy of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China. I said at the meeting that to revitalize the Northeast, we should learn from the story of Zhao Wuling riding and shooting in Khufu, and start with changing customs. Can we have a toast at noon today without turning over the table? As a result, when we first started eating lunch, everyone was very uncomfortable. A lesbian first broke the deadlock, said I was a woman, and proposed a toast to Director Zhang. As a result, the venue was chaotic for a while, and a toast was started again, which shows that it is difficult to change the customs.

As the saying goes, "one side of the soil and water support one side of the people", China has great geographical differences, different natural endowments, and people's behaviors and styles are also greatly influenced by this. There is a story on TV. A Shanghai educated youth who jumped the queue in the northeast and then stayed in the northeast returned to Shanghai to visit her mother. Mother was glad to let her sister go to the market to buy some good dishes and gave her 100 yuan. When she came back from shopping, she paid her mother a sum of money. Finally, it was 106.50 yuan, and her mother gave her 6.50 yuan. This younger brother has been in the northeast all the year round. He is very dissatisfied with this and feels too stingy, but it may be normal in Shanghai.

Foreigners eat AA system, while Northeasters scramble to pay the bill. As a result, the boss wants to grab any one to pay his salary, but he still has no money. Northeasters are generous, honest, vast in territory and abundant in resources, and don't care about these three melons and two dates. It's good to make friends, but not smart enough to do business. There are many such examples, which will be difficult to change for a while. These problems exist to varying degrees and need to be changed by further deepening reform and changing ideas.

However, it is worth noting that these problems also existed from 2004 to 20 12. Why was the economic growth rate higher then than now?

structure

As far as things are concerned, the decline in the economic growth rate in Northeast China is still caused by the characteristics of the economic structure in Northeast China.

Due to historical reasons and natural endowments, heavy chemical industry occupies a large proportion in the economic structure of Northeast China. In the eight years since the first round of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, the domestic and international economic environment coincided with the rapid economic growth of China, the rising prices of energy and raw materials, and the great demand for equipment, which was beneficial to the economic structure of Northeast China, which was dominated by heavy chemical industry.

For example, during the first heavy machinery factory, orders for steel equipment and nuclear power equipment were abundant, like a duck to water. The same is true of Daqing Oilfield. At that time, the international crude oil price was more than US$ 100 per barrel, and the life in Daqing was relatively good, which made a great contribution to Heilongjiang's tax revenue. The same is true of steel mills and coal mines in the northeast.

However, when China's economy entered a new normal, the economic growth rate dropped from 9%~ 10% to 6%~7%. The heavy chemical industry in Northeast China is the first to be affected, and the transformation of economic structure will not happen overnight.

Governor Lu Hao once introduced a set of data: in 20 16 years, the output value of energy in Heilongjiang province decreased by158.7 billion yuan compared with that in 20 12 years, which was related to the decline in international crude oil prices and the decrease in Daqing crude oil production. The price of crude oil has dropped from more than $0/00 per barrel to more than $40 per barrel, a drop of more than half. The annual output value of Daqing Oilfield is more than 280 billion. Sneezing will have a great impact on Heilongjiang's economic aggregate and tax revenue.

In addition, coal prices have fallen sharply, the power market is weak, and the energy sector, which plays an important role in Heilongjiang economy, has fallen rapidly. Even if the output value of other industries has increased by more than 200 billion, it will only make up for the decline in energy, and the economic growth rate will of course be gone.

Agriculture also plays an important role in Heilongjiang economy. The output of rice is 52 billion Jin, which has made great contributions to the national food security. But if the price of rice is less than one yuan per catty, the impact will be 52 billion. I have just been to Jiamusi, and I heard from Jingu Agricultural Comprehensive Enterprise in Yu Xiang, Fujin County that the price of a kilo of rice has dropped by five cents, which is 2.6 billion yuan.

Also affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the development of nuclear power has obviously slowed down. It was originally an advantage to undertake the manufacturing of first-and second-generation nuclear power equipment, and now it has become one of the most affected enterprises.

In addition, on 20 10, in order to protect the ecological environment of the black land in Northeast China, we made a decision to stop logging in Xing 'an Mountains and transform the economy. Wood finance is gone, and it is paid by government financial transfer. In Yichun alone, the fiscal revenue dropped to1400 million yuan, while the fiscal expenditure was1270 million yuan. In the long run, it is a strategic good thing for the whole country, Northeast China and Heilongjiang, but it is definitely a negative data for economic growth.

The superposition of these factors will have a great impact on the economic growth of Heilongjiang. Does it matter in other places? Yes, but it has a great impact on the economic structure of Heilongjiang. The economic transformation of Yichun, Daqing, Heilongjiang and even Northeast China should give Northeast China and Heilongjiang a time to help them transform. Just saying something critical, discouraging, sarcastic or even sarcastic will only demoralize you, and it is not entirely in line with reality. I have never advocated ranking heroes by GDP growth rate.