The third quarter report card of the ETF market announced that commodity-themed funds led the market

As the September market comes to an end, the ETF market’s report card for the third quarter has also been released. Data shows that in the past three quarters, the market share of non-stock ETFs has increased by a total of 134.831 billion units. From the perspective of newly established products, since the third quarter, there have been 47 newly established non-stock ETFs in the market, with a total issuance share of 95.813 billion.

As for net value performance, excluding new products established during the year, only 19 of the 603 non-commodity ETFs had positive returns in the third quarter of this year, and many commodity-themed ETFs led the market in the third quarter. China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF topped the list of gains with a net value growth rate of 15.39%, and was once again the ETF with the highest return during the year. Followed by China Universal CSI Energy ETF and Cathay CSI Coal ETF, the net value in the third quarter The returns are 7.93% and 4.75% respectively.

In addition, products such as ChinaAMC Nasdaq 100 ETF, GF CSI All Energy ETF, Cathay Nasdaq 100 ETF, GF Nasdaq 100 ETF and other products all returned more than 2.5% in the third quarter; Cathay Standard S&P 500 ETF, Boshi S&P 500 ETF, HFT SSE 10-year local government bond ETF, HFT SSE 5-year local government bond ETF, Wells Fargo Vaccine and Biotechnology ETF, HFT SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF, Penghua CSI 5-year local government bond ETF and Cathay Shanghai Securities 10-year government bond ETF also returned more than 1% in the third quarter.

As for the decline list, the theme track ETFs such as Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet, Hang Seng Mainland China Enterprises High Dividend Yield, and New Energy Batteries suffered more losses in the third quarter; while virtual reality, consumer electronics, ETFs on theme tracks such as artificial intelligence, 5G communications, and semiconductor chips have had the lowest returns this year.

Commodity-themed funds lead the market

In the first quarter of this year, China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF achieved a quarterly return of over 30%, unrivaled in the non-commodity ETF market and followed suit. These are commodity-themed ETFs such as Cathay CSI Coal ETF, CCB Esheng Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF, Universal China Securities Energy ETF, Dacheng Nonferrous Metals Futures ETF and other commodity-themed ETFs. The above-mentioned ETFs once triggered heated discussions in the market.

Subsequently, under the counterattack of the growth track led by new energy, the performance of commodity theme funds was slightly inferior. In the third quarter, the net value of commodity-themed ETFs rose again. As of September 30, the China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF ranked first in the list of non-commodity ETFs in the third quarter with a net value growth rate of 15.39%, and once again became the largest increase in the year. The ETF with the highest return achieved a return of 45.26% in the first three quarters.

Following this were China Universal CSI Energy ETF and Cathay CSI Coal ETF. The net return in the third quarter was 7.93% and 4.75% respectively. Judging from the net performance of the first three quarters, the returns of these two ETFs during the year were 35.72% and 37.35% respectively. In addition, the GF CSI All Energy ETF also rose 4.04% in the third quarter, with returns in the first three quarters reaching 27.33%.

Although the net value performance is among the best, commodity-themed funds have experienced profit redemptions as a whole. Among them, about 35 million units of the China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF were redeemed in the third quarter, and 217 million units of the Cathay CSI Coal ETF were redeemed. The other two ETFs each received no more than 60 million net subscriptions.

How do you view the performance of the commodity market in the fourth quarter? “Looking ahead to the market outlook, for the protein meal market, due to the current extremely tight supply and hot consumption, protein meal futures and spot market prices are very hot. However, it is expected that with the subsequent launch of international oilseeds and the advancement of imports, the price in the fourth quarter will be very high. "The price of protein meal will fall back." Nanhua Futures believes that taking into account the timing of international oilseed launches and shipping imports, the turning point of protein meal prices may occur in mid-to-late October.

The fund manager of China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF mentioned in the interim report that looking forward to the second half of the year, against the backdrop of high global inflation, the bull market for soybean meal may not have ended, and gains can still be expected. Judging from historical market conditions, the third quarter is often the off-season for the soybean meal market, so soybean meal futures prices may fluctuate widely, with limited upside space. In the context of supportive demand for soybean meal and U.S. soybeans, if a "weather market" appears on the supply side, there is still room for U.S. soybean and soybean meal prices to rise. However, due to the addition of climate change as a determining factor, the price trend of agricultural products is relatively elusive compared to other commodities such as industrial products.

The 2022 interim report of China Universal CSI Energy ETF mentioned that in the second half of the year, global supply imbalances and local shortages will still be important factors in regional inflation, and it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in the global inflation environment. A moderate inflation environment is conducive to the profitability of consumer industry companies, but if the CPI continues to rise to a high inflation environment, cyclical industries will maintain the fundamental characteristics of high ROE. For this reason, defensive deployment of current assets is required.

In addition, in a carbon-neutral environment, the reduction of energy supply will be the norm, which will further increase the value of energy as a national strategic material. Therefore, apart from inflation factors, the profits of the energy industry are still expected to remain in a good state in the second half of the year. Coupled with a large proportion of dividends in the first half of the year, the allocation value of the energy industry is thus reflected.

Broad-based ETFs and medical track ETFs have a significant gold-absorbing effect

Judging from the changes in fund shares, the share of GF Nasdaq 100 ETF increased by 14.359 billion shares in the third quarter. It is the first in the market, with the latest scale reaching 10.8 billion yuan. The fund also became the non-goods ETF with the largest increase in fund shares during the year, reaching 17.337 billion shares, second only to the 18.634 billion shares of the China Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF.

In addition, the Huabao CSI Medical ETF, whose fund share reached a new high in the past two weeks, increased its share by 8.315 billion shares in the third quarter, second only to the GF Nasdaq 100 ETF, with the latest size of 157.91 billion. Coincidentally, the share of E Fund CSI 300 Medical and Health ETF also increased significantly in the third quarter, reaching 7.99 billion shares, with the latest scale being 11.04 billion yuan. During the same period, both ETFs suffered losses of nearly 20%.

The fund shares of three products including ChinaAMC SSE 50ETF, ChinaAMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, and Guolian Securities All-Index Semiconductor ETF increased by more than 30 shares in the third quarter, reaching 6.077 billion and 5.319 billion respectively. , 3.934 billion copies; the latest scale is 61.408 billion yuan, 29.346 billion yuan, and 12.228 billion copies.

Looking at the other end of the rankings, 3.942 billion units of the China Southern CSI All Real Estate ETF were redeemed in the third quarter. The latest size is 4.003 billion yuan, a four-fold decrease from the 7.311 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter. into or above. In addition, Huatai-PineBridge Dividend ETF, Southern MSCI China A50 Interconnection ETF, China AMC Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF, etc. had a net redemption of over 900 million units in the third quarter.