Why is the weather forecast inaccurate in summer?

Although the ancients had a lot of experience in forecasting weather by observing phenomena and looking for laws, the weather forecast based on modern science is only 100 years old. It was in such a simple manual workshop that she developed by simply observing the pressure field, high and low pressure, cold and warm fronts and performing simple linear calculation, while it took only a few decades for the numerical forecast to simplify the solution and operation of the physical process. People have not fully grasped the internal mechanisms and laws of the occurrence and evolution of many weather phenomena. Meteorological science is still the sun at seven or eight o'clock in the morning, and it is an extremely young subject. Young people always make mistakes.

Reason 2: Butterflies have countless wings.

Lorenz, a professor at MIT, used an image metaphor to express his findings: a small butterfly flapping its wings over Brazil may trigger a storm in Texas a month later. This is the famous "butterfly effect" in chaos, and it is also one of the earliest chaotic phenomena. Before our eyes, it seems that there are "countless butterfly wings" inciting. Regardless of the greenhouse effect caused by urban heat island and industrial emissions, the complex terrain of this planet has a decisive influence on the weather change, and the vegetation and water bodies are undergoing subtle changes, which cannot be described in detail in the simulation operation.

Of course, we won't be addicted to the inaccuracy of weather forecast because we have "countless butterfly wings", just as students won't lament that the exam questions are too difficult because they can't get full marks. People who often comfort themselves with "chaos" do not have the professional psychological quality of forecasting the weather.

Reason 3: Our eyes have blind spots.

To predict the weather, we must first observe the weather. Theoretically speaking, we must be meticulous and meticulous, and we must not let go of any nuance. Humans themselves have no clairvoyance and clairvoyance, but our eyes have blind spots.

Since the appearance of meteorological satellites, the blind area of our eyes has narrowed and our horizons have widened. No matter how cunning the typhoon is, it will never fool the keen eyes of the satellite. The spiral cloud type of typhoon and typhoon eye are clear at a glance, so we can safely issue those typhoon warnings. But gold alone is not enough, no one is perfect, and so are meteorological satellites. Geosynchronous meteorological satellites always pay attention to weather changes, but they are 36,000 kilometers away from the ground, with a long distance and limited resolution. Polar-orbiting meteorological satellites are more than 800 kilometers high and close to the earth, but they can't concentrate on observing specific areas. Its cloud picture is spliced. When observing a specific area, it is equivalent to the "blink" problem of satellites, and some weather happens in the blink of an eye. In addition, if there are clouds, it is difficult for us to observe and measure the curvature of the neck. 5] ⑸noisy mirror with a bitch? Is it embarrassing? What are you talking about?

We don't have a pair of eyes that can see everything, so it is inevitable that there will be errors in analysis and prediction.

Reason 4: sunrise in the east and rain in the west

People often use "sunrise in the east and rain in the west" to describe the difference of weather in different places. In areas with complex terrain, or in the season of strong convective weather such as rainstorm and hail, the weather often varies greatly in a small area.

A mountain, windward slope and leeward slope, the temperature and precipitation are very different, so the vegetation looks very different. Just across a mountain, there are two types of climate. The ancients said: when you first realized that there was a ridge between you, the climate was very cold.

However, China has a vast territory, which is influenced by both the continental weather system at middle and high latitudes and the maritime weather system at low latitudes. There are many kinds of meteorological disasters, and it is one of the countries with the largest and most serious types of meteorological disasters in the world. We can only describe a wide range of features in a minute or two "from the overall situation", which will certainly delete many local weather phenomena, omit many weather plots, and cannot express such complicated weather changes.

Reason 5: Misdiagnosis of Difficult Diseases

There are many kinds of diseases and the difficulty of diagnosis and treatment is different. No matter how skilled a doctor is, he will sometimes be misdiagnosed, and he will often encounter intractable diseases for taking the pulse of the weather.

I clearly remember an example: as soon as the typhoon was generated, it stormed the southeast coast and we issued an alarm. However, the typhoon strangely stopped moving and rested in place. But just when people breathed a little sigh of relief, it killed another comeback and re-aimed at the southeast coast, so we issued a typhoon warning again. However, when the alarm sounded, the typhoon swaggered towards the Pacific Ocean. In the end, the typhoon surprised people. Afterwards, several colleagues concluded that the typhoon seemed to be specially used to tease us.

A normal weather process, even if it is not predicted (in jargon, it is empty), often occurs without prediction (in jargon, it is missing). For a long time, in order to reduce the negative social impact, some people in the industry have the mentality of "rather empty than leaking". Aside from the forecasting mentality in the industry, I personally feel that it is precisely because of many extremely difficult forecasts, especially the omission, that people (including leaders) lack fair evaluation of mistakes, and many colleagues engaged in forecasting are often treading on thin ice. One of my leaders has a saying on his lips: Ten thousand years later, people will still talk about the accuracy of the weather forecast. The weather forecast is always inaccurate. I hope he can give the audience an injection after 10 thousand years. The problem of weather forecast will persist for a long time. It is really very difficult to find out God's temper.