Is it cold or warm this year?

The annual winter comes as scheduled with bursts of cold air. 13 ~ 14, another weak cold air will affect the northern region, and the temperature in North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai and other places will drop by 4 ~ 6℃, and the local temperature will be 8℃. There is little to medium snow or sleet in the central and eastern Inner Mongolia and the north-central part of Northeast China, and there is heavy snow in the local area.

You think it's so cold It should be a cold winter this year, right?

However, meteorologists said that according to previous analysis, it is expected to be warmer this year.

How is cold winter or warm winter predicted?

Wang Yongguang, chief climate expert of the National Climate Center, told reporters that according to the news released by the World Meteorological Organization, there may be a weak La Nina phenomenon in the coming months. From the general law, La Nina year is prone to "cold winter" in China. However, the weak La Nina phenomenon predicted by many institutions at home and abroad last year did not actually happen.

Let me tell you what La Nina is: La Nina literally means "Saint", which refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to be abnormally cold, which is the reversal of El Ni? o phenomenon, also known as "anti-El Ni? o" or "cold event". From the beginning of the 20th century to 1992, La Nina occurred 19 times.

Usually, the SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific is lower than the 30-year average by more than 0.5℃, and it will constitute La Nina event for six months. Last year, the temperature was even lower than 0.5℃ for several months, but it didn't last for six months, so it was not considered as La Ni? a event.

Wang Yongguang told everyone that this year's model forecast is very similar to last year's. Winter may reach a cold peak, and there may even be a weak La Nina event. But comprehensively, it is also possible that the cold water fluctuation like 20 16 may only happen once and will not form an event.

Generally speaking, according to the previous analysis, it is expected that it will be warmer this year, and there may be more fog and haze in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and other places, so it is necessary to strengthen prevention.

Why does it feel cold in warm winter?

20 16, 16 10 in late October, China suffered a "overlord" cold wave event. At that time, 76 stations, including Ergon in Inner Mongolia, Zhangjiakou in Hebei, Qingdao in Shandong, Pudong in Shanghai, Huai 'an in Jiangsu, Yongjia in Zhejiang, Fuzhou in Fujian, Zhuhai in Guangdong, Fangchenggang in Guangxi, Shifang in Sichuan and Pingbian in Yunnan, broke the historical lowest temperature since the local stations were established. The snowfall even reached the coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi, setting the southernmost boundary since the complete meteorological record (since 195 1).

However, after the end of winter, statistics show that the winters of 20 15 and 20 16 are warmer. Many people will ask, why did the meteorological department say it was warm winter when it felt very cold two years ago?

"It's warm all winter, but it doesn't mean it's warm for three months." Ding, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and special adviser on climate change of China Meteorological Bureau, told reporters that the climate is described by two parameters, one is the average temperature, and the average temperature for 90 days in a winter exceeds the multi-year average, that is, the warm winter and the other is the cold winter, that is, the average value. At the same time, we should use another extreme event to describe it. After a few days, it suddenly became very cold or warm. This is an extreme event, and it happened in a short time.

If it is predicted that the winter will be warmer, it will exceed the multi-year average on the whole, but it does not mean that there will be no strong cold events and warm events in this warm winter. In addition to the above examples, in the year of 20 15 12.30, the temperature in the arctic once exceeded 0℃, which was 30℃ higher than the annual average temperature in winter.

Usually, people have a deeper memory of extreme events, but it is not easy to remember the average temperature, so they may feel biased.

How can climate prediction help disaster prevention and reduction?

Let's talk about what climate prediction is. Is it very different from the weather forecast we can see every day?

Wang Yongguang said that climate prediction is actually to study the future evolution trend of a certain factor, such as temperature and precipitation. According to the deviation of the average climate in the past, it is estimated whether the temperature will be high or low in the future, such as a month or a quarter. Is there more or less precipitation? In terms of time, there are short-term climate scales of months, seasons and years, and even longer climate change scales of decades and hundreds of years, which are different from the weather forecast of 10 day.

How can climate prediction serve the national economy and help prevent and reduce disasters?

Sun Zhongfu, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that climate prediction is related to all aspects of China's economic construction. Under the background of global warming, industry needs energy conservation and emission reduction. Agriculture, in particular, is most sensitive to climate change. Comprehensive layout, regional optimization, adoption of planting system, selection of varieties and formulation of disaster prevention and reduction plans are all closely related to climate. Therefore, the sooner you know the trend of climate change, the better it will be for you to nip in the bud.