What are the leading stocks of aerospace concept stocks?

What are the leading stocks of aerospace concept stocks? On June 5th, China successfully launched "Fengshou-1" technical test satellites A, B and five commercial satellites in the Yellow Sea with the Long March 11th sea-launched launch vehicle "CZ- 1 1WEY", and the test was a complete success. The launch technology test of launch vehicle at sea is beneficial to better meet the launch needs of satellites with different inclination angles and promote the development of commercial space in China. On the company side, Zhenhua Yunke, a subsidiary of Zhenhua Technology, has successively produced the Long March rocket and the supporting products of shenzhou spaceship. Lianchuang Special Microelectronics, a subsidiary of Lianchuang Optoelectronics, has successively undertaken the supporting tasks of shenzhou spaceship, Long March Rocket Project, the Goddess Chang'e flying to the moon and other major aerospace projects.

AVIC Shen Fei: Japan has bought more f-35 fighters, and China is in urgent need of medium-sized stealth aircraft.

AVIC Shen Fei 600760

Research Institute: Guo Xin Securities Analyst: Luo Zhiwei Date of writing: May 29, 2022.

Matters:

US President Trump arrived in Japan on May 25th for a four-day state visit. On the 27th, Trump announced that Japan plans to purchase 105 American F-35 stealth fighters, which will make Japan the country with the largest number of F-35 fighters among all American allies. On the morning of 28th, accompanied by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Trump boarded Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Izumo helicopter frigate Kaga for a visit. This is one of the most important itineraries of Trump's visit to Japan, and it is also his first time to board a ship of the Japanese Self-Defense Force.

Guo Xin's military viewpoint: Japan will purchase 105 F-35 fighters, including 42 F-35A fighters and * * * 147 fighters previously ordered, which will maintain the largest fleet of fourth-generation stealth fighters around China and pose a great threat to the security environment in the East China Sea. The F-35A is mainly used to replace land-based F- 15J fighters. The newly purchased 105 includes 42 F-35B fighters that can be deployed on Japanese helicopter carriers. Therefore, China needs to step up the development of the fourth generation carrier-based medium stealth fighter to deal with this security threat. The J -3 1 stealth fighter of AVIC Shen Fei can meet the relevant requirements of shipboard operations, and it is the only stealth fighter deployed on aircraft carriers in China with development prospects. The company's scientific research and production capacity can meet the needs of the development of high-tech equipment. The orders and advance receipts from the military continue to grow, and the cash flow is in good condition. Continue to maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of 19-2 1 returning to the mother is 8.75/10.48/10.278 billion, corresponding to EPS of 0.63/0.75/.

Comments:

During Trump's visit to Japan, he said that Japan would purchase 105 F-35 fighter planes, and the threat of stealth fighters around China increased. Japan's accelerated purchase of F-35 fighter jets directly threatens China's national security. In recent years, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has not only developed very rapidly, but also advanced technology. Although Japan, as a defeated country in World War II, has some restrictions on the development of its maritime forces, due to the strategic contraction of the global US military, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's equipment has broken through most of the restrictions, especially its Izumo and Sunward helicopter carriers have begun to serve, and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's two Izumo-class aircraft carriers (Izumo and Kaga) have the ability to take off and land and carry F-35B fighters. This will undoubtedly endanger the national security of China. Coupled with the direct military threat from the US troops stationed in Japan and Guam, China needs a sufficient number of aircraft carriers and carrier-based fighters to effectively defend its own security and neighboring interests.

Japan's purchase of F-35 fighter makes the demand for J -3 1 even more urgent.

歼 -3 1 medium stealth fighter is in urgent need. The Japanese government signed a contract with the United States on February 201KLOC-0/65438, and ordered 42 F-35A for the first time. In the near future, Japan will also purchase 63 F-35A and 42 F-35B in its order, totaling 105 F-35 fighters. After the delivery of these aircraft, Japan will become the largest fourth-generation stealth fighter holder around China. At present, the third generation fighters in active service in China, such as J-1 1B and J-10, are all one generation behind the F-35. Only the land-based J-20 and the J -3 1 fighter under development belong to the same technical level as the F-35. Due to its basic design characteristics, the J-20 is not suitable for fighting on an aircraft carrier with a small space. As a medium-sized stealth platform, J -3 1 has a broader application prospect. Japan's purchase of F-35 will also stimulate our army and related enterprises to speed up the development progress.

Investment advice:

As the main fighter development unit in China, AVIC Shen Fei has its own technical advantages in the development of the fourth generation stealth fighter. For the development of carrier-based aircraft, Shen Fei has accumulated rich experience through J-15 carrier-based fighter, which is more suitable for the development of the fourth generation carrier-based stealth fighter. If the fourth generation carrier-based stealth fighter is successfully developed, it will provide the company with relatively long-term continuous growth in performance. Considering that the whole army of China Navy and Air Force is in the period of changing the third-generation multi-role fighter and the fourth-generation stealth fighter at the same time, the company has a bright business prospect. Continue to maintain the previous profit forecast. The estimated net profit of 19-2 1 returning to the mother is 8.75/10.48/127,800, corresponding to EPS of 0.63/0.75/0.9 1 yuan, and corresponding to current share price PE of 47.2/.

AVIC Aircraft: Rising delivery drives revenue growth, and many factors affect profit growth.

AVIC Aircraft 000768

Research Institute: Guohai Securities Analyst: Tan Qian Date of writing: April 30, 2022

The increase in delivery drives income growth, and multiple factors comprehensively affect the substantial increase in profits. In terms of revenue, the company's product delivery increased, driving revenue growth of 265,438+0.42%, highlighting the strong demand for products; In terms of cost, the company's gross profit margin decreased slightly, and operating costs increased by 22.56% year-on-year; In terms of three fees, thanks to the improvement of management and the emergence of Shenyang-Feiming civil aircraft, the three fees have all been reduced; In addition, the gains from changes in fair value and asset disposal increased significantly, and the net profit attributable to the mother increased by 46. 13% year-on-year.

Management reform, burden reduction and accelerated development of civil aircraft subsidiary company. Shenfei Civil Aircraft is mainly engaged in the manufacture of airframe structural parts. In 2065.438+08, its revenue was 65.438+77 million yuan and its net profit was-77 million yuan. On the one hand, the company will not exercise the management right of Shenyang Aircraft Company, which is conducive to shortening the management chain and saving management costs; On the other hand, it will also help Shenyang Aircraft Company to achieve regional cooperation and accelerate business development. Previously, the company has introduced strategic investors to increase the capital of Xifei Civil Aircraft, and the capital strength of Xifei Civil Aircraft has been greatly enhanced. At present, the civil aircraft industry in China is still in the growth stage, and its overall profitability is weak. By operating two civil aircraft subsidiaries, the company has further accelerated the development of civil aircraft business while reducing the burden on the company.

The military has reformed its support equipment, and the demand for military aircraft is also growing. In terms of military products, the company is the only manufacturer of transport aircraft and bombers in China. As a symbol of the strategic air force, the transport plane undertakes the delivery of long-range military forces on the one hand; On the other hand, it is also a development platform for special models such as tankers and early warning aircraft. Under the background of accelerating the transformation of our army and developing into a systematic and information-based combat mode, the number of transport aircraft and special aircraft in China is obviously insufficient. Under the background that the country attaches great importance to national defense construction and the urgent need of the army, the demand of the company's products is expected to continue to grow.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Maintain overweight rating. The company's product delivery increased, highlighting the strong demand; At the same time, by introducing strategic investors, we will no longer exercise the right to operate, reduce our own burden, and accelerate the development of civil aircraft business. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in 2022-202 1 year will be 652 million yuan, 760 million yuan and 905 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.24 yuan, 0.27 yuan and 0.33 yuan respectively, and corresponding to current share price PE of 69 times, 59 times and 49 times respectively.

Risk warning: 1) Military procurement is less than expected; 2) The development of civil aircraft is less than expected; 3) The company's profit is less than expected; 4) Systemic risk.

Backed by China Hangfa Group, relying on a large platform to integrate resources and improve efficiency: through equity transfer, the company is currently a newly established subsidiary of China Hangfa Group. After the separation of flight and development at the enterprise level, Hangfa Group can determine the long-term development strategy according to the needs of national defense construction and economic development, concentrate on breaking through the key technologies of engines, deploy and organize engine research and serial development in advance, and realize the technical power first. The company is expected to rely on the big platform, follow the way of "small core, big cooperation, specialization and openness", and rely on the resources of the group to improve the efficiency of product research and development, improve the convergence process of the industrial chain and realize the effective allocation of resources.

Profit forecast and investment suggestion: We predict that the company's revenue in 2022-202 1 year will be RMB 30.27/33.65/3.776 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of10.20%/1.19%. The net profit returned to the mother was 291/3.30/376 million yuan, with an increase of12.33%13.16%/14.18%/kloc. Maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk warning: the company's product development is less than expected; The demand for military aero-engines is less than expected.

Avic electronics: the performance was lower than expected, and the decline in gross profit margin and the increase in asset impairment losses were the main reasons.

Avic electronics 600372

Research Institute: Dongguan Securities Analyst: Li Longhai Date of writing: March 22, 2022

The performance was lower than expected. In 20 18, the company realized an operating income of 7.643 billion yuan, up 8.83% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of11.63%; The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 65.438+0.74 billion yuan, down 53.45438+0% year-on-year; Earnings per share is 0.27 yuan.

The decline in gross profit margin and the sharp increase in asset impairment losses are the main reasons for the decline in corporate profits. In 20 18, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 29.68%, down 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin of aviation products was 29.57%, down 4.6 1 percentage point year-on-year. In addition, the company's asset impairment loss was 65.438+63 billion yuan, up 82.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the bad debt loss accrued from the current account of its subsidiary Baocheng Instruments.

China's military aircraft have been updated rapidly, and the avionics market has developed rapidly. Avionics system is equivalent to the "brain" of aircraft, and it is the key to improve the ability and efficiency of aviation defense operations. With the increasing influence of avionics system on the overall performance of the aircraft, the proportion of avionics system cost to the total cost of the aircraft has also increased linearly: from 10% of F-4 in the 1960s, 2 1% of F- 15C in the 1970s, 30% of F- 16C in the mid-1980s. According to aviation knowledge, the avionics cost of the F-35 has accounted for 60%. There are still 30% combat aircraft in China that are three generations of combat aircraft. According to World Air Force 2022 published by Flight International, there are 56 1 fighter 歼 7 and 歼 8 in China, accounting for 34.5% of China's combat aircraft; There are 260 third-generation combat aircraft J- 10, 39115SU-27/30/35, totaling 65 1 aircraft, accounting for 40.65438+ of China's combat aircraft. American combat aircraft are basically more than three generations of combat aircraft, including four generations of combat aircraft F-22 178 and F-352 14. With the maturity of China's third-generation combat aircraft, the new fighters 歼-16, 歼-10c and the fifth-generation stealth fighter 歼 -20 are in service one after another, and the second-generation combat aircraft will be gradually retired in the future. The continuous service of the third generation combat aircraft has obviously increased the demand for avionics system.

Asset injection is worth looking forward to. The company manages Airborne Corps 14 enterprises and institutions, including 5 key scientific research institutes, and the income scale of the management company is equivalent to 3 times that of AVIC Electronics. The transformation of military scientific research institutes has cleared the way for the injection of scientific research institutes. The goal of transforming military scientific research institutes into enterprises is: the first batch of production and operation military scientific research institutes will be transformed in 20 18, and other production and operation military scientific research institutes will be basically transformed in 2020. In addition, the profitability of avionics assets is superior to other types of military assets, and the injection will significantly improve the performance of listed companies.

Investment advice. The company is the leader of avionics in China. With the accelerated upgrading of military aircraft in China, the company has obviously benefited. In addition, the company's asset injection expectation is relatively certain, which will significantly improve the company's performance. We expect the company's earnings per share in 2022 and 2020 to be 0.35 yuan and 0.44 yuan respectively, and the current share price is 49 times and 38 times that of PE, so we maintain the company's "recommended" investment rating.

Risk warning: the demand for military products is sluggish, and the asset injection is lower than expected.

Zhongzhi shares: pay attention to OEM opportunities in May.

Zhongzhi stock 600038

Research Institute: Essence Securities Analysts: Feng Fuzhang and Yu Ping Date of writing: May 8, 2022.

Focus on aviation development, control growth and open up new kinetic energy for international business. The company is the main supplier of aero-engine control system in China and has always maintained a leading position in the field of military aero-engine control system. In 20 18, the company's performance met expectations, achieving an operating income of 2.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%. The main reason is that the company has fully implemented the strategy of focusing on its main business, and its main business engine control system and derivative products have achieved operating income of 265,438+74 million yuan, up 6.3 1% year-on-year. In terms of international cooperation business, on the basis of engaging in high value-added related businesses, the company further expanded the international market, achieving a revenue of 3,654,380,500 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, achieving rapid growth. In 20 18, the company achieved a net profit of 259 million yuan, up by 19. 15% year-on-year, which was higher than the income growth rate1/0.59 percentage points. The direct reason is that the company's cost control effect is remarkable, and the company's management expenses in 20 18 are 296 million yuan, only increasing by 0.39% year-on-year. Financial expenses were 65,438+0,926,5438+0 in 600 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 92.56%. The main reasons for the decrease in financial expenses are that the interest expense of foreign interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 2.66 million yuan, the interest income from handling structured deposits increased by 5.29 million yuan, and the exchange income increased by154.3 million yuan due to exchange rate changes.

R&D products can be put into production, and the profit margin is worth imagining. In 20 18, the company continuously enhanced its innovation ability and increased its investment in research and development of new technologies and new products. In 20 18, the R&D expenditure was 180,000 yuan, up by 7.8 1% year-on-year, of which the design expenditure was 6,888,800 yuan, down by 58.54% year-on-year, and the test expenditure was 1258. In our opinion, the substantial reduction of design cost indicates that the design stage of the main new products developed by the company is coming to an end, and the substantial increase of test cost and fuel power cost indicates that the new products are being intensively tested, and the production of new products in the future is likely to bring new profit space to the company.

1. Investment point of view: In 2022, our annual strategy report "Yanghe Kai Zhe" clearly pointed out that the main engine plant is more rising with the rise of industry index, and the main engine plant is naval equipment; It is estimated that the valuation level of 19 military sector may remain basically stable, and we are strongly optimistic about the military market in the first quarter. 2022Q 1, the performance of ships, informationization, and civilian participation in the army is outstanding, and aviation equipment lags behind the military industry index.

However, the OEM began to enter the adjustment period in April 2022. We believe that under the background of good fundamentals, the current valuation level of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. is lower than the historical center, so we can focus on the opportunity of valuation repair in May.

Second, the basic orientation is good: 10-ton general-purpose helicopter has been delivered and installed in small batches, and it is expected that the delivery volume will increase in 2022; The growth of army aviation has created a huge demand space for military helicopters. It is estimated that the demand gap will be at least 500 in the next three years, and the high prosperity of the helicopter industry is expected to continue.

The delivery of the new 10-ton general helicopter is expected to increase in 2022, which will be an important performance growth point. The 10-ton general-purpose helicopter is expected to have stronger expansion capability than the "Black Hawk", and the three services have great installation space. Compared with the American Black Hawk, which accounts for 53% of the total number of its military helicopters, we believe that even if it is conservatively estimated, the total number of 10-ton general-purpose helicopters in China is expected to reach more than 600 in the future. According to the annual report of 20 18, the Harbin branch of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (product series include: Zhi 9, Zhi 19, Y 12, EC 120, H425, etc. ) increased by 30.58% and 66.63% respectively, and the growth rate of total profit exceeded revenue. We believe that based on the small batch delivery of 20 18, the delivery of 10-ton general-purpose helicopter is expected to increase in 2022, which will become an important performance growth point of the company in the future.

A number of financial data verify that the delivery of military helicopters will improve in 2022, and the performance growth of 19 is expected to accelerate. First of all, the company predicts that the related transaction volume of selling goods and providing services with Aviation Industry Group will be 65.438+0.9075 billion yuan in 2022, which is 25.69% higher than the expected upper limit of 2065.438+08. We believe that the substantial increase in such related party transactions is due to the increase in the delivery of military helicopters in 2022; Secondly, the total revenue and profit of Jingdezhen branch in 20 18 years (product series include: Zhi 8, Zhi 10, Zhi 1 1, AC series, etc. ) increased by 0.60% and 7.43% respectively. We think the main reason is the stable delivery of the Chi 10 model. Straight 8 improvement is also expected to increase the delivery volume in 2022, bringing about an increase in performance; Finally, the contractual liabilities of 2022Q 1 increased compared with the previous period (167.2 billion yuan, +44.28%), indicating that the order volume increased; 2022Q 1 Prepayments increased by 38.92% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in production purchases. Based on the above three aspects, we believe that the delivery of military helicopters is expected to increase this year, and the performance growth is expected to accelerate.

The growth of the Army Air Force has given birth to a huge demand for military helicopters in China. It is estimated that the demand gap will be at least 500 in the next three years. Army aviation is an important arm of our army to build a "three-dimensional attack prevention". Our army, army and air force were greatly expanded in the military reform initiated at the end of 20 15. At present, our army 13 land and air brigade +2 aviation brigade have all been restructured (this round of military reform has newly formed 3 land and air brigades). According to the data predicted by CCTV news and the Jamestown Foundation of the United States, in the future, our army will deploy and develop 15 land-based brigades (13 army+2 military regions in Tibet/Xinjiang) and 5 air-sudden brigades (5 war zones). The number of helicopters required for a single land-based brigade and air-sudden brigade is 100 and 72 respectively, which will make our army become the future. Only the newly formed three land-based brigades will be equipped with 70 helicopters each (during the formation process, it will not be fully staffed), and the existing 13 land-based brigade and two air-based brigades will be upgraded with 20 helicopters each. The demand gap for helicopters used by the Chinese Army is at least 500. In addition, China's Type 075 helicopter carrier, Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers will all drive the demand for naval helicopters. As the only listed platform of aviation industry corporation of china helicopter sector, CIIC will fully benefit from the development of military helicopters in China.