A large number of new wheat will be on the market soon. Will corn suffer a "big negative" in June? This information is very important.

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With the full promotion of summer harvest, the harvest progress of new wheat began to accelerate.

According to the wheat harvesting progress released on June 1 day, the national wheat harvesting area is 65 1.8 million mu, and the harvesting progress exceeds 20%. The wheat harvest in Hubei has entered the final stage, with the progress of more than 30% in Anhui, more than 25% in Henan, more than 0/0% in Jiangsu, nearly 0/0% in Shaanxi, and sporadic in Shanxi and Shandong.

Next, with the large-scale promotion of summer harvest, especially in June, wheat in North China will be listed on a large scale. While collecting the trend of new wheat, everyone is also collecting the trend of corn.

Many people are worried about the impact of the large-scale listing of new wheat on corn. With a large number of new wheat listed, will corn encounter a staged "big negative"?

There is some news worth collecting.

News 1: The price of new wheat keeps fluctuating.

The most valuable thing to collect is the price of new wheat.

Since the listing of new wheat, the price has fluctuated greatly. At first, out of the "high opening" situation, the purchase price of flour enterprises was higher than one, but then it fell, and the general focus fell from the previous 1.6+ to 1.5+.

Later, with the announcement of policy grain purchase prices in various places, wheat experienced another round of decline.

However, this week, wheat prices began to show signs of correction.

To sum up, the current market is chaotic and there is a lot of information, but the actual business is not big. The market is waiting for a large number of new wheat in North China, so the price of wheat will continue to fluctuate during this period.

News 2: Corn is well planted.

According to the latest survey of agricultural conditions by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the progress of spring sowing in China has exceeded 90%, and corn and soybean sowing have entered the final stage.

Among them, the sowing of spring corn in Northeast China has basically ended. Judging from the sowing and subsequent weather conditions, the market's worries about corn in the early stage have eased.

News 3: The quantity of imported corn has decreased.

From the perspective of imports, the number of imported corn has decreased significantly this year.

On the one hand, due to the high international food and energy prices, the arrival cost of imported corn has greatly increased, and the current duty-paid cost has exceeded 3,300 yuan/ton, which is upside down with the domestic corn price.

In this case, the advantage of imported corn is greatly reduced;

On the other hand, last year's high corn yield and the surge in imports narrowed the corn gap compared with this year. In the case of high international food prices, the import expectation naturally decreased.

Well, from these news, we can judge the trend of corn in June as follows:

Judgment 1: The wheat price has obviously bottomed out, and the feed consumption has obviously decreased.

Although the price of new wheat fluctuates constantly, we have analyzed before that with the announcement of the policy grain purchase price, the price of wheat has gradually bottomed out.

In view of the tight supply and demand in the international wheat market this year, the number of domestic buyers has increased, and there is limited room for the price of wheat to fall, which means that the price difference between wheat and corn will remain high.

Although it is not ruled out that the wheat price will be adjusted back in stages during the listing period, even if the price difference is narrowed, it will soon widen again on the premise of "no rations".

Therefore, as wheat no longer flows into forage, the demand support of corn will be strengthened.

Although the directional rice is auctioned continuously, the old rice can only be mixed in a small amount, so the impact on corn is limited compared with wheat.

Judgment 2: As the game intensifies, corn may enter a "seesaw battle".

At present, the grass-roots corn is basically exhausted, and the grain source has been transferred from the grass-roots traders, which also means that the protagonist of the corn market will change to traders and grain-using enterprises.

Because many traders lost money harvesting corn last year, many small and medium-sized traders dare not sell it again this year, so a large amount of corn is concentrated in the hands of big traders this year. Compared with small and medium-sized traders, these big traders have stronger experience in both capital and market, so the game in the subsequent corn market will not be small, and corn is likely to enter a "tug-of-war" state.

Judgment 3: The pig market fluctuates, and the cost suppresses demand.

However, judging from the trend of the live pig market, although the live pig market has been warming up for several weeks, it is still in a state of strong supply and weak demand, which also means that the space for pig prices to rise in June has been basically limited.

Recently, feed prices have ushered in a wave of rise, which undoubtedly doubled the pressure on farmers. In the case of limited increase in pig prices and rising costs, the demand for feed has been suppressed.

So on the whole, although a large number of new wheat will have a certain impact on corn, this impact is not lasting.

On the other hand, the demand for corn itself is weak, and the demand for short-term replenishment is not high for both deep processing and feed enterprises. Therefore, it is expected that corn will be difficult to rise and fall in June, with a volatile trend as the main trend.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.