How is the typhoon track predicted?

The method of typhoon path prediction is to predict the future moving direction of typhoon by statistical method and hydrodynamic method.

The typhoon forecasting methods before 1950s are basically empirical and non-objective quantitative. Since 1960s, objective and quantitative typhoon forecasting methods have been widely used in meteorological stations. Among them, most of them are based on the statistical methods of typhoon movement and its relationship with other meteorological factors in history; A few are hydrodynamic methods based on atmospheric motion equations and thermodynamic equations for numerical calculation.

Due to the complexity of typhoon movement and the scarcity of observation stations in the ocean, there are still some errors in typhoon forecast at present. For example, in typhoon path forecast, the average 24-hour position error is about 200km, and the average 24-hour moving direction error is about 20 degrees. The 48-hour average position error is generally greater than 400km, and the 48-hour average moving direction error is about 25 degrees. Typhoon gale and precipitation forecast are more difficult.

Typhoon forecast signal

1. The appearance of high clouds: At the outermost edge of the typhoon, there are cirrus clouds, white feather-like or ponytail-like high clouds. When such a cloud appears in a certain direction and gradually thickens into a dense cirrostratus, it indicates that there may be a typhoon approaching.

2. Thunderstorms stop: In summer in Taiwan Province Province, thunderstorms often occur every afternoon in mountainous and basin areas. If the thunderstorm stops suddenly, it means that there may be a typhoon approaching.

3. Good visibility: Two or three days before the typhoon, visibility improved, and mountains and trees in the distance can be seen clearly.

4. Sea-land breeze is not obvious: usually, the wind blows from the sea to the land during the day and from the land to the sea at night, which is called sea breeze and land breeze, but this phenomenon is not obvious a few days before the typhoon comes.

5. Long wave: In the offshore of Taiwan Province Province, the waves are relatively stable due to the mild summer monsoon. However, when there is a typhoon in the distance, the waves will become more turbulent and gradually spread to the coast of Taiwan Province Province, resulting in long waves. Residents along the eastern coast have this experience.

6. Hamming: As the typhoon approached, the long wave became louder and louder, hitting the coastal cliffs and making a roar. It is often heard on the eastern coast that a typhoon will come in about 3 hours.

7. Sudden showers stop: When high clouds appear, the clouds gradually become denser and lower, and showers often stop, which is also a sign that a typhoon is approaching.

8. Change of wind direction: Southwest wind is often blown in summer in Taiwan Province Province, which is also mild. However, if it is changed to the northeast wind, it means that the typhoon is approaching and has begun to be affected by the edge of the typhoon, and then the wind speed will gradually increase.

9. Special sunset glow: Two days before 1 and the typhoon hit, when the sun sets, several beautiful rays of red and blue radiation are often emitted from the western horizon, which are emitted to the zenith and then converge in the symmetry between the east and the sun. This phenomenon is called anti-twilight.

10, air pressure decreases: according to the above phenomenon, if the air pressure decreases gradually again, it means that it will enter the edge of typhoon.

Baidu Encyclopedia-Typhoon Forecast