Main tasks of "Guiding Opinions on the Development of Modern Meteorological Services"

Modern weather business focuses on improving the accuracy and refinement of weather forecasting, focusing on the construction of numerical forecasting business system, the research and development of specialized monitoring and forecasting business and technical system, the comprehensive analysis and application of various observation data, the adjustment and improvement of intensive forecasting business process and the construction of expert forecasters. The key tasks of its business construction include:

(1) numerical weather forecast service

According to the Development Plan of Numerical Weather Forecast Business of China Meteorological Bureau (2008-201year) and its rolling revision plan, the development of GRAPES model will be promoted. On the basis of further improving and deepening the application of T639 business model, we will develop and establish a numerical forecast business system based on GRAPES model and a numerical forecast product interpretation application business combining power and statistics.

1. Numerical forecast model

Develop and improve the three-dimensional/four-dimensional variational assimilation analysis system and run it. In order to improve the assimilation application level of global model satellite remote sensing data, satellite remote sensing data can account for more than 80% of the total assimilation data in the global variational assimilation analysis system. A regional variational assimilation system is established to effectively assimilate dense data with high spatio-temporal resolution, such as Doppler weather radar, satellites and automatic stations, so as to realize rapid data assimilation analysis every hour, and significantly improve the analysis, simulation and short-term prediction capabilities of small and medium-sized systems. Effectively integrate satellite, radar and other observation data available on the ocean surface, and improve the initialization technology of typhoon vortex. The data assimilation method of land surface parameters is developed, and the real-time automatic generation system of global underlying surface data is established. The regional data of China were reanalyzed, and the experimental reanalysis data set of 10 was established by using mature regional assimilation and model.

Establish an analysis and forecast system with a global resolution of 25km and a regional resolution of 3-5km in China. Optimize the dynamic framework and ordinate of the global model, and improve the processing scheme of polar regions and large terrain areas. Considering the physical process of stratosphere, the top height of the model is improved. Focus on improving the parameterization scheme of precipitation process and land surface process, optimizing the cloud processing and forecasting scheme in radiation process, realizing the reasonable refinement of physical process, and developing the parameterization scheme of physical process that can reflect the weather and climate characteristics of China. The technology and software of model dynamic diagnosis and physical diagnosis are developed, and the comprehensive diagnosis platform of numerical weather forecast system is established, which provides a basis for improving the performance of model forecast.

Develop global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at the national level and realize operational operation. The initial value perturbation method based on singular vector and the random perturbation method of physical process are developed. Effectively increase the ensemble forecast samples, model spatial resolution and forecast aging, and the forecast aging of global ensemble forecast reaches 2 weeks. Improve the construction of TIGGE center in China, develop multi-service center and multi-mode ensemble forecasting integration technology, and further improve the probability forecasting ability of factors such as temperature and quantitative precipitation; Develop downscaling technology of probability forecast to further improve the level of fine probability forecast. Participate in the research and development of national numerical forecasting system at regional level, and carry out regional numerical forecasting business suitable for local region and climate characteristics.

2. Statistical interpretation of numerical forecast products

Develop the interpretation and application of T639 model and operational regional numerical forecast model, and improve the interpretation and revision platform of numerical weather forecast products. At the national level, we will set up short-term and medium-term interpretation services for severe weather forecasting, strengthen the guidance capacity building of numerical forecasting products, increase the types and quantities of guidance products, and improve the accuracy and refinement of guidance products. At the national level, we will produce and distribute the objective interpretation products of meteorological elements in seven-day' national counties and cities and five kilometers' grid points, and at the provincial level, we will combine local experience to produce meteorological elements interpretation products in towns and other service places.

(2) Weather analysis business

Based on the comprehensive application of various observation data and numerical forecast products, the weather scale analysis business is gradually transformed into the business of combining weather scale analysis with mesoscale analysis on the platform of MICAPS system.

1. Weather scale and mesoscale analysis service

Develop and improve the subjective analysis of weather scale and mesoscale based on various data. Improve the routine weather scale analysis business based on high-altitude and ground data, especially the analysis of various characteristic lines, special areas, characteristic systems and physical quantities that have obvious influence on the occurrence and development of disastrous weather. According to the mesoscale observation data output by the fast updating assimilation system and the refined numerical analysis and forecast products, the mesoscale weather analysis is carried out, and a comprehensive analysis map reflecting the occurrence and development characteristics of the mesoscale weather system and its environmental characteristics is drawn. Strengthen the knowledge and understanding of the spatial structure, element configuration and physical process evolution of mesoscale system, and accurately judge the type, intensity and falling area of disastrous weather. Improve the weather chart analysis specification. At the national level, we will focus on strengthening weather scale analysis, sending the analyzed ground and upper air maps to meteorological stations at all levels, and at the same time conducting mesoscale analysis to lay the foundation for severe weather potential prediction. At the provincial level, mesoscale analysis is emphasized to provide support for short-term forecast of severe convective weather and disastrous weather. Meteorological departments at the prefecture and county levels use superior analysis products to do a good job in local disastrous weather forecasting and supplementary revision.

Improve and develop the objective diagnosis and analysis technology of dynamic and thermal characteristics and physical parameters of disastrous weather based on various data. At the national level, objective diagnostic products of physical quantities based on observation data and the output of numerical forecast model system are provided to the whole country, and meteorological stations at all levels do a good job in the application of objective diagnostic products, and establish a physical quantity index system adapted to the characteristics of local disaster weather.

2 disastrous weather and meteorological disaster monitoring and analysis business

Research and development of national and provincial characteristics identification technology for disastrous weather and meteorological disasters. Using modern information processing technology, according to the different characteristics of typhoon, rainstorm (snow), cold wave, gale (sandstorm), low temperature, high temperature, lightning, hail, frost, fog, freezing rain, rime, tornado and other meteorological disasters such as drought, geological disasters, mountain torrents, urban waterlogging, road icing, snow, wire icing, forest and grassland fires. Strengthen the field investigation of meteorological disasters and real-time sharing of observation data between regions. Improve the collaborative function of early warning software system and improve the monitoring rate of disastrous weather and meteorological disasters.

3. Inspection, evaluation and revision of numerical weather forecast products.

Meteorological offices and stations at all levels shall, according to all kinds of real-time observation data, the inspection results of numerical forecast products and the experience of forecasters, carry out dynamic inspection of numerical forecast situation field, factor field and main weather system, and analyze the error law; Compare the product errors of different numerical models, analyze the evolution law of related characteristic lines and characteristic weather systems of numerical forecast products, correct the movement and intensity information of main weather systems, and improve the use ability of numerical forecast products. Carry out the revision of the national ground forecast map and distribute the revised ground map to meteorological stations at all levels.

(3) Weather forecast business

Based on a variety of data fusion technologies and high-resolution numerical forecast products, the level of rapid diagnosis and short-term approaching forecast of disastrous weather is improved. Based on the interpretation technology of numerical forecasting products and the experience of forecasters, we will carry out fine short-term forecasting services of meteorological elements, especially quantitative precipitation forecasting services. The technology of combining dynamics and statistics is used to improve the short-term forecast of disastrous weather falling areas. Based on ensemble numerical forecast, the probability forecast level of extreme weather such as precipitation and disastrous weather is improved. Relying on super ensemble forecasting, improve and perfect the medium-term forecasting business, develop the extended forecasting business, and gradually establish a seamless forecasting business system.

1. nowcasting service (0 ~ 2 hours)

Vigorously develop a variety of observation data fusion technologies, and accelerate the construction of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) services based on radar, satellite and automatic station data. Development of short-term heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes and other strong convective weather monitoring and analysis technology, enhance the ability to identify strong convective weather. Develop forecasting techniques for severe convective weather and typhoon approaching, and develop forecasting techniques combining extrapolation forecasting with numerical forecasting product interpretation to improve early warning efficiency. The severe convective weather forecasting business system with real-time automatic identification, alarm and forecast functions has been applied at provincial and municipal levels. Enhance the ability of forecasters to analyze radar, satellite and other data and identify severe convective weather, and improve the hit rate and timeliness of severe convective weather forecast.

2. Short-term forecast service (0 ~ 12 hours)

Develop the fusion technology of meteorological observation data and high-resolution numerical analysis and forecast products. Strengthen the forecaster's analysis and application of high-resolution fast analysis and forecast products, and enhance the comprehensive analysis ability of mesoscale weather systems and their characteristic physical quantities. Develop regional forecasting technology of disastrous weather based on dynamic and statistical interpretation.

At the national and provincial levels, the type, intensity and falling area of disastrous weather with time resolution less than 3 hours within 12 hours will be predicted. Establish a short-term disastrous weather probability forecast service based on ensemble forecast at the national level. Establish a national short-term forecasting business technology process.

3. Short-term forecast service (1 ~ 3 days)

Improve the interpretation technology of meteorological element forecast based on dense meteorological observation data and high-resolution numerical model products, develop refined meteorological element forecast systems in two ways: site and grid, and establish meteorological element forecast services in service locations such as 5 km grid and towns nationwide, with the time resolution reaching 3 hours within 24 hours. Continue to improve the forecast accuracy of meteorological elements such as temperature, wind and relative humidity, especially the accuracy and refinement of quantitative precipitation forecast. Develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) technology combining subjective precipitation forecast with high-resolution numerical model products, and regularly produce precipitation forecast products with time resolution of 6 hours within 72 hours forecast time limit. The potential forecast of thunderstorm, gale and hail has been carried out for 72 hours, with the time resolution of 6 hours in 24 hours and 12 hours in 24-72 hours. Establish a national unified fine forecast product sharing database (NWFD) to provide digital products to professional weather forecasting systems and the public.

Improve the ability of typhoon path and intensity prediction and the fine level of wind and rain prediction. The time resolution within the 72-hour forecast time limit is 12 hours; The 24-hour typhoon track forecast error is close to 100 km, and the typhoon intensity forecast error is reduced to about 4.5 m/s.

The national and provincial levels should vigorously develop the forecasting business of severe weather such as typhoon, rainstorm and strong convection, and establish and improve the conceptual model and forecasting index system of severe weather. At the national level, we will establish regional ensemble forecast product analysis and disastrous weather probability forecast business. At the provincial level, we will establish and strengthen the meteorological element forecast business in towns and other service locations. Strengthen the analysis of climate background, characteristics that mainly affect the development and evolution of the system, numerical forecast situation field and characteristic physical quantity field by forecasters at all levels, improve the ability of forecasters to identify and analyze all kinds of disastrous weather, give play to the role of forecasters in interpreting and analyzing numerical forecast products, and do a good job in forecasting the types, intensities and falling areas of disastrous weather.

4. Medium-range forecast service (4 ~ 10 days)

Vigorously develop medium-term objective forecasting methods for disastrous weather. At the national level, we should vigorously develop the interpretation technology of medium-term ensemble numerical forecast products, develop conventional meteorological elements such as precipitation, temperature and relative humidity, and medium-term probability forecast methods for disastrous weather such as high temperature, heavy precipitation and low temperature chilling injury, and develop corresponding probability forecast products.

Develop the medium-term forecast method of typhoon path and intensity, especially the integrated forecast, ensemble forecast and probability forecast technology based on global model and regional model, extend the time limit of typhoon forecast to 120 hours, and release the typhoon intensity and path probability forecast products.

At the national and provincial levels, we will develop routine meteorological element forecasting services that roll daily within the time limit of numerical forecasting, and establish medium-term probability forecasting services for disastrous weather at the national level. Improve the ability of national and provincial forecasters to analyze and explain the performance of medium-term numerical forecast products, and adopt the methods of weather climatology and dynamic statistics to focus on improving the medium-term forecast level of disastrous, critical and turning weather.

5. Extended forecast service (1 1 ~ 30 days)

Develop the land, sea and air coupling model and its ensemble forecasting operational system at the national level, and actively develop long-term precipitation and temperature anomaly probability forecasting products. The precursor signals of atmospheric circulation causing persistent abnormal meteorological events in China are studied, and the dynamic statistical prediction method of persistent abnormal meteorological events in China is established. Based on ensemble forecasting operational system, combined with weather climatology, dynamic statistics and other methods, an objective forecasting system for the extended period of main weather processes and precipitation and temperature elements is established, and the extended period forecasting business is carried out in combination with the development of modern climate business.

(four) forecast technology summary and product inspection business.

Establish a normalized forecasting technology summary mechanism in meteorological departments at all levels to promote the systematization and in-depth development of forecasting technology summary. Strengthen the inspection of meteorological business products.

1. Establish a weather forecast log system.

Establish a weather forecast log system in meteorological stations at all levels to record the forecast process and ideas of various important weather, the forecast performance of various numerical forecast products, the application of various new data and the use effect of local characteristic forecast methods in time. It provides first-hand information for summing up the experience and lessons of forecasting, analyzing the performance of numerical forecasting model and studying and improving forecasting methods. The establishment of meteorological forecast log system should be included in the business assessment.

2. Establish the exchange mechanism of forecasting technology summary.

Meteorological departments at all levels should establish a normalized summary mechanism of forecasting technology, timely summarize major weather processes around the country, accumulate forecasting experience, and concise relevant scientific issues. Give play to the role of TV weather consultation system, meteorological website, technical summary special issue and professional periodical, provide an exchange platform for forecasting technical summary, promote the systematization of forecasting technical summary, and compile forecaster's manual by province and weather type.

3. Establish inspection service for classified forecast products.

Check and evaluate the forecast products systematically. Improve the routine meteorological element forecast and inspection business, establish and improve the short-term approaching forecast of disastrous weather, the forecast of disastrous weather falling areas, the medium-term weather forecast and the extended weather trend forecast and inspection business, and strengthen the real-time inspection and evaluation business of the forecast performance of business numerical models. The national and provincial inspection and evaluation services based on unified inspection methods, and the inspection and evaluation services of provincial stations relative to the Central Meteorological Observatory were established respectively.

Focus on strengthening the research on the inspection methods of severe weather forecast and short-term imminent forecast, and improve the objective, standardized and standardized inspection and scoring system of various forecast products. Through the inspection of forecast products, the objective evaluation of forecast quality and the analysis of error sources can be realized.

(5) The technical system of forecasting business shall be based on the principle of "unified design and orderly implementation", and an intensive technical system of basic meteorological forecasting business shall be gradually established. Develop the national general meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system (MICAPS), develop the national short-term forecast business system (SWAN) combining standardization and localization, and establish the national fine forecast product * * * shared database (NWFD).

1. Meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system

Further establish the core and basic position of MICAPS in the national weather forecast comprehensive business platform, take the lead in intensive and professional development of MICAPS platform system applicable to the whole country at the national level, and realize the generalization of software design, standardization of data sharing, networking of system structure and humanization of interactive tools. Accelerate the development and application of general functional modules such as weather analysis, interactive correction of fine forecast, medium-term forecast and numerical forecast product analysis of MICAPS system, realize the grid correction function of temporal and spatial consistency of MICAPS numerical forecast products and collaborative calculation of factors, and strengthen the basic and key role of MICAPS in weather analysis and forecast business of meteorological stations at all levels. Based on MICAPS technical framework, professional modules such as typhoon, ocean, hydrology and transportation are developed to provide professional platform support for national modern meteorological services.

2. Short-term nowcasting operational system

Continue to develop, popularize and apply the national short-term forecast system for disastrous weather. Improve the use level of radar, satellite, ground automatic weather station and mesoscale rapid assimilation data; Realize the automatic identification of small and medium-sized weather systems such as short-term heavy precipitation, hail, thunderstorm and strong wind, tornado, etc. Methods such as quantitative precipitation estimation and nowcasting, short-term and nowcasting of strong convection and nowcasting of lightning are established, and comprehensive display and analysis of products are realized based on MICAPS technical framework. Meteorological stations at all levels have established localized short-term nowcasting operational systems under the system norms and standard functional systems, combined with the local disastrous weather characteristics.

3. Excellent weather forecast products * * * shared database (NWFD)

Develop the National Fine Forecast Product Sharing Database (NWFD) to ensure the consistency of foreign forecast service products. The national level focuses on providing factor prediction products for cities above the county level, and the provincial level provides more refined urban prediction products in the province. The functions of data storage and retrieval based on grid meteorological element forecast are realized, and the functions of real-time provision of element forecast results, direct online call and real-time evaluation of conclusions are realized.

4. Secondary development of business technology system

At the national level, strengthen the standardization and standardized management of the research and development of MICAPS, SWAN, NWFD and other business technology systems, improve the openness of framework design, and provide convenient conditions for secondary development. According to the local business needs and data characteristics, provincial units develop local application modules under the overall framework, and strive to make the basic meteorological forecasting business technology system reach the international advanced level.