Which country has the best hope of winning this year's World Cup?

The five reasons why Brazil and South Africa won the championship-Spain, Britain, Germany, Italy, Afghanistan, the Netherlands and France have their own shortcomings.

Say the conclusion first, then the basis.

conclusion

Brazil will play Spain in the final and win the championship.

Fans outside Brazil, please don't get excited. Please give your analysis if you think the following reasons are untenable. We will be happy to draw a new conclusion, even if Brazil can't play, because I am not an exclusive fan of any team, I am just a fan of the World Cup.

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Although the final result may be biased, it is better to predict the champion with rational analysis than blind self-confidence. Just like the weather forecast, if your forecast is not accurate enough, it must be that you have not analyzed enough data. Of course, we can't analyze massive data like weather forecast, so the final result will definitely be biased. But if you don't do any analysis, there is no basis for prediction and there is no need for discussion.

It is not easy to find the basis for winning the championship, so we try to find the obstacles to winning the championship, so that we can locate the champion by exclusion.

According to the source of ...

Mainly divided into two categories: history and present situation.

history

First look for the factors that are not conducive to the team from history.

1. Only Brazil won the championship out of the state-against Spain, Britain, Germany, Italy, Afghanistan, the Netherlands and France.

Argentina's champion in Mexico is also in Latin America. Brazil won the championship in Europe, North America and Asia. This is the first World Cup held in Africa, so can we refer to the Asian champions who hosted the World Cup for the first time? -This is Brazil.

European teams have only won championships in Europe, and American teams have won championships in America without exception.

If you only look at this, you don't have to analyze it. But obviously, only one foundation is too thin, and history always needs people to break and create. Just like the European Cup in Spain, if you look at the history of nearly 30 games, every game will always go high and low, but in the end Harvey reversed people's habitual view of them.

Except Brazil, no team has ever defended the championship-this is not good for Italy.

In fact, Brazil's defense is not convincing. 1958 and 1962, football has not been fully developed, the level of countries is seriously uneven, and European football has not yet risen. Until 70 years ago, Brazil was still firmly dominant. After that, many Latin American players went to Europe to play football, and football really entered the competitive modern football era. Some data of the World Cup since then can also be seen. The number of goals scored by the top scorer has been stable at six for 30 years, except for Cristiano Ronaldo. After entering modern football, Brazil has never defended its title. Just like no team can defend its title after the Champions League reform.

3. Scandal and Champion-Bad for Italy.

Although Italy won the championship four times, two of them were before World War II, and the time was too long to be convincing. Italy won the championship twice after the war, both shortly after the scandal, which was so serious that it could be considered a disaster. Therefore, the team has no ideological burden and is easy to fight. Coupled with the shame and courage, the team's combat effectiveness soared. At the same time, the contempt of the outside world has soared. Three favorable factors add up to two champions. A circumstantial evidence is that when the leaders of the Football Association were arrested and the national team became swearing, the China team broke the fear of South Korea for 30 years.

But there is no scandal in Italy this time. On the contrary, Mourinho's tactics magically covered up the fact that Serie A declined as a whole.

4. The champion team that has won the championship-not conducive to the Netherlands, Spain and Greece.

Only six teams have won the championship: Brazil, Italy, Germany, Afghanistan, Britain and France. If you tell me about Uruguay in 30 or 50 years, I have to say I'm sorry: that time was too long. At that time, there were very few exchanges between Europe and America, so it was impossible to count. At the same time, this is one of the reasons why I think the defending of Brazil 1958 and 1962 is unconvincing. Nothing is impossible for Uruguay to win the championship. So it is more intimate to take the data of the past 30 years.

Of course, Spain is now expected to make history, just like France in 1998.

There is another thing that is not good for Spain-back-to-back champion. At present, only Brazil and France have achieved back-to-back championships within and between continents, which shows the difficulty of back-to-back competitions. Of course, having these two evidences can also give Spain confidence.

Although the Netherlands reached the finals twice, they both missed the championship with regret. However, according to the situation at that time, it was reasonable for the Netherlands to win a championship. It was in 78, the Netherlands reached the final without cruyff, and Argentinian Kempes obviously couldn't compare with cruyff. It can be said that the Netherlands is the closest to the championship among non-champion teams. Hungary in' 54 and Sweden in' 58 also reached the finals, but look at the current situation of football, do you still have this extravagant hope? By the way, I have to mention again: that era was really the primitive society of football. Let's take a look at Holland this year. Although there is Robben, the superman who is now purple, can you win the championship by just one winger? Where is a good midfielder, a good defender and a good center? Although Italy had scandal power at that time, Tony, Pirlo, Cannavaro and Buffon formed a complete and powerful central axis, which propped up the skeleton of the team. Where is the Dutch skeleton now?

Speaking of Greece, I want to say that the World Cup and the European Cup are very different, so it is impossible to be unhappy. A bunch of famous European coaches once said that the level of European Cup and Champions Cup has surpassed that of World Cup. They speak from the perspective of fierce competition, if only from this perspective, it is true. But from another perspective, the European Cup gave the ball a chance to break out. The World Cup is different. Without absolute strength, it is impossible to be upset, or even to enter the finals. The reason is simple: European teams know each other and the style gap is small. There are three different kinds of football in the World Cup: America, Europe and Africa (please allow me to ignore Asia). Players are distributed all over the world, and no one knows who they are. From the group stage to the championship, a team has to deal with all kinds of teams and strange players in seven games, and it is very difficult to fight. If the players don't have absolute technical strength, they will be exhausted just by changing their styles and rhythms.

5. Dazzling before the game-not conducive to Afghanistan and the West.

1998 and before the 2006 World Cup, Brazil was the most expensive team, with many superstars and excellent players. 1998, Ronaldinho was called the new king of the ball, and in 2006, Ronaldinho was called the new king of the ball-at least some fans called it that. The same is true of France in the 2002 World Cup, which also gathered the top scorers from three of the five major leagues. Now Messi, Higuain, Tevez and Milito in Argentina are the hottest players in Europe. Spain, a replica of Barcelona, is also in full swing.

condition

There is still a lot of data in history. I hope you will continue to add. It is better to have new evidence to overturn the previous inference.

Let's look at the status quo.

1. France without midfield

When France achieved good results in the world series, it was supported by top midfielders. Platini's European Cup, Zidane's World Cup. In 2002, such a good group of players sank because there was no Zidane. Without Zidane's return in 2006, France could not even enter the World Cup. Then Zidane returned and went all the way to Brazil to reach the final. Now there is no good midfield in France, and there is no discipline in playing football. Ribelli and Malouda are both wingers, so it's hard to shoulder the heavy responsibility. Without Henry's handball, it is almost impossible for me to enter the World Cup.

2. Germany, the midfield is old.

1998, matthaeus, a German, was old and finally entered the quarter-finals. Now that Barak is stumbling, where can he find the pillar of Germany?

3. Brazil with weak strength before the game.

Kaka is injured and can't take part in the game. Robinho left Europe. Ronaldinho has passed the peak. Although Dunga is in good shape, he is still stubborn and excluded. This team lacks dazzling superstars. It's very different from 98 and 06.

But look at Brazil in 2002. Rivaldo, the team's midfielder, was injured before the game, but he played well in the World Cup. At that time, there were not so many hot superstars on the team. This time, there are also many unknown local players in the Brazilian team. But this is good for their tactics around superstar players, and 98 and 06 superstars lack green leaves. In addition, it is easy for opponents to relax their vigilance when they are dizzy. At the same time, local players have also added unfamiliar elements to their opponents, increasing the difficulty of defense. Brazilian players have no technical problems. Look at Clayberson in' 02. So-so, but I just played well in the World Cup. Quite simply, the opponent doesn't know him, but he has such good skills. The first world war against Britain was the most obvious. Brazilian Ronaldinho was sent off, and 10 hit 1 1 still dominated the ball.

In fact, Brazil is just not as dazzling as 1998 and 2006. Kaka, Robinho, Lucio, Mai Kong, Alves, Marcelo, Cesar and fabiano. These people are enough to support Brazil's central axis and bypass roads. Just like 02.

In addition, Dunga was born in the lower back. Generally, midfielders have a good record as coaches. The striker is even worse. Because of their different positions on the field, their emphasis and perspective are different. The team coached by this midfielder has a balanced attack and defense, because this is the whole of his career. The forward coach is gorgeous in attack and loose in defense.

Rijkaard, Guardiola, Deschamps, Keane. They all played well. Basten, on the other hand, withered in the knockout stage.

4. The situation in Argentina

As I said just now, Argentina's hot striker group before the game is a big obstacle to good results. First, it is easy to be taken care of, just like Messi in Mei Acha and Higuain in the Bernabeu; Second, there is no good midfield, and the striker has a gun and no bullets. This second point is the biggest key for Argentina.

Finally, look at Britain

There is no obvious flaw. But Rooney was overused by Ferguson and is now overtired. The left-back also caused a personnel crisis. Although Cole is now recovering from training, the lack of warm-up to recover is also a potential danger. Rooney even lacks a suitable partner in the forward line. In addition, Capello is famous for his defense and is suitable for long leagues. His cup record is average. Although he won the Champions League with Milan, it was after a lot of efforts. Compared with the unbeaten 58 games in the same period, it can set off the weakness of the cup. The group match before the World Cup is more like a league match, and Capello is like a duck to water. In fact, the FA is mainly interested in Capello's ability to manage big-name stars. For many years, England has not had convincing competition results. The only World Cup was won at home, and the first controversial ball in history was involved. In view of this, on the whole, England will have a good performance in this session, such as the semi-finals, but will not win the championship.

6. Reality in reality

The above has roughly said the status quo of the team. But don't ignore a more realistic question: at which stage will the strong teams meet? The eight teams in the title all have the technical strength to enter the finals, but if they meet in advance, they will lose. So I only dare to bet on the champion, not the runner-up and the top four. There are too many accidental factors, and the champion is the team that can fix everything.

Let's look at grouping as a whole. (/thread-603230- 1- 1 . html)

The process is difficult to predict, so I only chose one possible situation to list.

In this possibility, Brazil can meet Spain in the final. England and Argentina entered the top four.

Group A: A 1 South Africa A2 Mexico A3 Uruguay A4 France

Group b: B 1 Argentina B2 Nigeria B3 Korea B4 Greece

Group C: C 1 UK C2 USA C3 Algeria C4 Slovenia

Group D: D 1 Germany D2 Australia D3 Serbia D4 Ghana

Group E: E 1 Netherlands E2 Denmark E3 Japan E4 Cameroon

Group F: F 1 Italy F2 Paraguay F3 New Zealand F4 Slovakia

Group G: G 1 Brazil G2 North Korea G3 C? te d 'Ivoire G4 Portugal

Group H: H 1 Spain H2 Switzerland H3 Honduras H4 Chile

This World Cup is one of the few that has not died for many years. Except for Group A, which is a little dangerous, the other seven seed teams can undoubtedly enter the top 16, and it is difficult to find an opponent who can threaten the first place in their group.