The relationship between weather and human beings

The relationship between climate change and human activities

Director of Suzhou Meteorological Bureau Chairman of Suzhou Meteorological Society

Senior engineer Ren Jian.

order

In the last hundred years, the earth's climate is undergoing remarkable changes characterized by global warming, and the climate change trend in China is basically consistent with the general trend of global climate change. This global warming is caused by natural climate fluctuation and the greenhouse effect aggravated by human activities. The third assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)200 1 points out that the warming of the climate in recent 50 years is mainly caused by the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide emitted by human beings using fossil fuels. The existing forecast shows that in the next 50- 100 years, the global and China climate will continue to develop in the direction of warming.

Climate change in the last hundred years has brought important impacts on the natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems of the whole world and China. The impacts of climate change in the future will be long-term and enormous, many of which are negative or unfavorable. Therefore, from now on, we must consider taking measures to adapt to climate change in order to overcome its adverse effects.

I. Facts and scientific understanding of climate change

1, basic concept

(1) Weather and climate

(2) Climate change

(3) the greenhouse effect

2. The global climate is changing characterized by warming, and the climate change in the past 30 years is probably caused by human activities.

3. The climate in China has been warming for nearly a hundred years, especially in winter, northwest, north China and northeast China.

4. The global climate continues to warm.

Global warming will continue, even if the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is stable from now on, this warming trend will continue for decades. With the control of pollution, the emission of sulfide aerosol will decrease, so the warming rate in the future will be faster than that in the past 100 years.

5. There are uncertainties in climate change prediction.

Due to the limited understanding of the climate system at present, the above climate change prediction results only give possible trends and directions, which contain considerable uncertainty. The uncertainty of precipitation forecast is greater than temperature. There are many reasons for uncertainty, mainly including:

(1) There is uncertainty in the estimation of future greenhouse gas concentration.

(2) The data of climate system that can be used for climate research and simulation are insufficient.

(3) The climate model system used to predict future climate change is not perfect.

Second, the impact of climate change: positive and negative coexistence

As an important part of the natural environment for human survival, any change in climate will have an impact on the natural ecosystem and socio-economic system. The impact of global climate change will be all-round, multi-scale and multi-level, with both positive and negative effects. But at present, people pay more attention to its negative effects, because negative effects may endanger the future survival and development of human society. Research shows that climate change will bring immeasurable losses to human beings, and it will cost a lot to adapt to climate change:

1. Climate change has had and will continue to have a major impact on natural ecosystems.

(1) The geographical distribution and species composition of natural vegetation may change obviously.

(2) Glaciers, frozen mountains and snow may decrease.

(3) Climate change may be one of the main factors leading to lake water level decline and area shrinkage.

(4) Sea level rise will affect coastal zone and marine ecosystem.

(5) Some extreme weather and climate events may increase.

To sum up, global warming may have an all-round and multi-level impact on natural ecosystems, many of which are unfavorable or even irreversible.

2. The impact of climate change on the national economy may be mainly negative.

As an important natural resource and an important part of the natural environment, climate plays a role in the social and economic system from two different aspects. Climate change will affect all aspects of global and regional social economy to varying degrees, such as the production of major crops and animal husbandry, the supply and demand of water resources in major river basins, the development of coastal economic development zones, human living environment, human health and energy demand. The sensitivity and vulnerability of human social system to climate change vary with its geographical location, time, socio-economic development level and environmental conditions.

(1) Agriculture may be one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change.

China is a big agricultural country, and climate change will face the following three prominent problems in China's future agricultural production:

① The instability of agricultural production increases and the output fluctuates greatly.

② The layout and structure of agricultural production will change.

(3) Agricultural production conditions have changed, and agricultural costs and investments have increased substantially.

(2) Climate warming will lead to changes in surface runoff, frequency of drought and flood and water quality in some areas, especially the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.

① Surface runoff will change.

② The supply and demand of water resources will change.

③ The frequency of drought and flood disasters will change.

④ The water quality will change in some areas.

(3) The spread of infectious diseases sensitive to climate change may increase, endangering human health.

(4) Climate change will affect the living environment of human beings.

Climate change may bring many adverse effects, such as:

① The possibility of crop yield reduction generally exists in most tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude areas;

(2) For residents in many water-deficient areas, the effective utilization rate of water is reduced, especially in subtropical areas;

(3) The number of people infected with infectious diseases will increase, and the number of people who die of heatstroke will also increase;

(4) Rainstorm events and floods caused by sea level rise will endanger many low-lying and coastal residential areas;

⑤ The high temperature in summer leads to the increase of refrigeration energy consumption.

Climate change may also have beneficial effects, such as:

(1) Due to the rising temperature, it is possible to increase crop yield in some areas of mid-latitude;

② The global timber supply may increase.

(3) For residents in some water-deficient areas (such as parts of South Asia), the available water consumption may increase;

④ Due to the cold winter, the death rate of residents in middle and high latitudes decreased;

⑤ Because of the warm winter, the energy required for heating is reduced.

Three. Challenges and opportunities brought by global climate change to China

1. The course of the international community's response to the challenge of global climate change

2. The Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol are the will of the international community to take action to meet the challenge of global climate change.

3. Challenges and opportunities brought by global climate change to China.

(1) There is increasing international pressure on China to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

(2) The potential of reducing greenhouse gases in China is restricted by energy structure, technology and capital.

(3) Pay attention to adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

In a word, the challenges brought by climate change to mankind are inevitable. Mankind must choose between the risk of paying a higher price in the future and giving up some immediate interests for long-term interests. In other words, with wisdom, openness and courage, we should start looking for global solutions now, or wait until we can experience the harm caused by climate change and can no longer stand it. Keep in mind scientists' warnings when choosing: the real risk is that the effects of climate change are often irreversible.