How difficult is it to predict the weather accurately? Reading with answers

How difficult is it to predict the weather accurately?

People are eager to predict the weather changes and really "plan ahead", but it is really not easy to predict the weather accurately.

The fundamental reason that affects the accuracy of weather forecast is the randomness of atmospheric motion itself. Atmospheric change is a complex movement process, full of various possibilities. In this regard, American meteorologist Edward Law Lentz has a vivid metaphor: "A butterfly flapping its wings in the Brazilian jungle can cause a hurricane in Texas." This is the so-called "butterfly effect". Under the multiple influences of randomness, any prediction result is risky. There will always be some errors in people's observation of the initial state of weather formation, and even a small error will make the prediction results very different.

All kinds of complex terrain will also have an impact on atmospheric movement. For example, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is high in terrain, and its temperature rises after solar radiation, especially in summer, which becomes the heat source of upper atmospheric circulation; When the airflow passes, it either passes above and is heated, or bypasses, thus forming weather systems such as southwest vortex, which makes the whole atmospheric circulation situation very complicated. It can be seen that the intricate terrain is also a "troublemaker" who loves to make trouble.

Moreover, the forecast accuracy varies greatly with different weather types. Weather with large spatial range and long time scale, such as high temperature, cold wave and plum rain, has higher forecast accuracy. National 24-hour weather forecast, maximum, minimum and temperature forecast can be "close to 10". However, some weather is sudden and local, such as strong convective weather, that is, hail, heavy rainfall, strong lightning and tornado appear in a short time, and the forecast accuracy is very low.

Under the influence of many factors, the difficulty of forecasting will certainly increase. It's like playing a jigsaw puzzle: if there are only 8 pieces, the child can spell them out; If it is 800 yuan, adults can spell it out; But if it is more than 80 million yuan, then "God" can't be spelled out.

However, with the popularization of computers and the re-selection of numerical forecasting methods, the accuracy of weather forecasting is constantly improving. The British Met Office is developing a new computer model, which meteorologists can use to publish weather forecasts with an area of only 65,438+0 square kilometers. In the near future, people can get accurate weather information in a smaller area in real time. By then, when meteorologists release the Wimbledon weather forecast, they can not only forecast the weather in southeast London where Wimbledon is located, but also set the accuracy within 500 meters of the competition venue.

12. Why is it difficult to predict the weather accurately? (3 points)

A:

13. Read the following sentences and answer the questions in brackets. (4 points)

(1) Under the multiple influences of randomness, any kind of prediction result is risky. (What exactly does "risk" mean in this article? )

A:

(2) It can be seen that the complex terrain is also a "troublemaker" who loves to make trouble. How effective is the expression of "troublemaker" in the article? )

A:

14. What is the function of the weather forecast at Wimbledon in this article? (3 points)

A:

15. The following poems describe different weather types. It is difficult and easy to predict these two weather types. Please use the relevant knowledge in the article to analyze it. (4 points)

"Dark clouds turn over the ink and don't cover the mountain, and white rain jumps over the boat." (June 27, Su Shi's "Drunk Book of Wanghu Building")

"It rains at home in Huangmei season, and frogs are everywhere in the grass pond." (Zhao Shixiu's The Guest)

A:

Reference answer

12. The atmospheric motion itself is random; Various complex terrain will affect the atmospheric movement; The forecast accuracy of different weather types varies greatly.

13.( 1) "Risk" means that the forecast result is very different from the actual situation, which means that the forecast fails.

(2) Taking "troublemaker" as an example, it vividly shows that the complicated terrain makes the atmospheric circulation situation very complicated.

14. Specifically, with the development of science and technology, people can get accurate weather information in a smaller area in the future; Make the explanation easy to understand and attractive.

15. Su Shi's poems describe the rainstorm, which is difficult to predict because of its sudden occurrence and strong local characteristics. Zhao Shixiu's poems describe rainy weather, which is easy to predict because of its large spatial scope and long time scale.