Experts predict the price of garlic next year (what is the trend of garlic market in 2022)

Comparing the previous garlic price with the weather situation in recent two years, it is concluded that the garlic price may increase slightly in 2022. In fact, due to the influence of this year's cold wave, most vegetables have increased in price, and garlic has also been frostbitten in large areas in these two cold waves, so the price of garlic is 20.

Garlic price trend in 2022

Judging from the price trend of 20 14 -20 19, the garlic price of 20 16 has increased obviously. The main reason is that the cold weather and low temperature of 20 15 caused a large area of garlic frostbite. Continuous cloudy days caused low temperature and scanty illumination for 40 days in the north, and the illumination time was short. The yield of 20 16 garlic was greatly reduced.

Combined with the rainstorm from September to June in 2020, 65438+ 10, the major garlic producing areas such as Henan and Shandong suffered from heavy precipitation, which caused some areas to be waterlogged, missed the sowing date and reduced the planting area.

Generally, the sowing date was delayed by nearly 1 month, and garlic did not grow to 4-5 leaves (the best wintering state). In addition, there were two consecutive cold waves in June 5438+065438+ 10, which caused a large area of garlic frostbite. The overall performance is similar to 20 15, so it is speculated that the price of garlic will increase slightly in 2022.

In fact, due to the cold wave this year, most dishes have increased in price. Garlic was also frostbitten in large areas in these two cold waves, so the price of garlic may increase slightly in 2022.

Factors affecting the price change of garlic

There are many factors that affect the price of garlic, such as planting area, natural disasters, inventory, international situation, and the amount of hot money entering the market.

1, market inventory

First of all, the price of garlic is mainly affected by the inventory in the first year. For example, if the stock of garlic is below 500,000 tons, the price of garlic will continue to rise.

According to the normal garlic stock, 1 10,000 tons is normal, but the garlic stock seen in the international garlic trade network on 202/kloc-0 is 3.45 million tons, and the time point is 1 1.20.

2. Changes of garlic planting area

Secondly, the change of garlic planting area is also a major factor. For us garlic farmers in kind of garlic, everyone will fall into this cycle.

Garlic with high price will choose to expand garlic planting, and garlic with low price will choose to reduce planting area. This cycle is summarized as the so-called garlic exchange cycle and "one year to earn, two years to lose, three years to lose."

3. The influence of international factors

Then there is the uncertainty of the international situation and the entry of capital hot money. Every year, the so-called fried garlic balls enter. In recent years, Wenzhou Gang, Beijing Gang and Northeast Gang have become popular.

The entry of capital can certainly promote the popularity of garlic trading market to a certain extent. But if we can't find a better consumer terminal, garlic as a physical stock is just speculation.

4. Impact of natural disasters

The high price of 20 16 garlic is closely related to freezing injury in winter, so freezing injury and late spring cold have great influence on garlic.