Key Technologies of Guiding Opinions on the Development of Modern Meteorological Services

In order to effectively promote the construction of modern meteorological services, it is necessary to focus on strengthening the research and development of the following key technologies and strive for effective breakthroughs.

(A) observation data analysis and application technology

1. observation data quality control technology

Carry out research and development of various observation data quality control technologies, especially radar, satellite, automatic station, AMDAR, wpr and other detection data quality control technologies to provide reliable observation information for forecasting business.

2. Analysis and fusion technology of observation data.

Vigorously develop a variety of observation data fusion analysis technologies to provide technical support for mesoscale diagnosis and analysis. The key technologies include: usability study of various observation data in numerical prediction model; Three-dimensional cloud analysis technology based on radar, satellite and automatic station observation data; The fusion analysis technology of radar, satellite, ground and sounding observation data and the "hot start" technology in the update cycle; Research and Development of Rapid Cyclic Assimilation Analysis and Forecast System (RUC) based on various observation data.

(2) Mesoscale weather analysis technology

1. objective diagnosis technology of mesoscale weather

Development of mesoscale system dynamics and thermodynamic physical diagnosis technology. The key technologies include: diagnosis and analysis technology of mesoscale system based on observation and numerical model output; Statistical analysis technology of characteristic physical quantities of mesoscale systems such as rainstorm, typhoon and strong convection; Regional objective forecast technology of disastrous weather with emphasis on "batch method" (or overlapping method)

2. Mesoscale weather subjective analysis technology

The technical specifications of subjective analysis of mesoscale weather are established, including weather map analysis, radiosonde data analysis and mesoscale system characteristic physical quantity analysis. The key technologies include: mesoscale system identification and feature analysis technology based on observation data such as radar, satellite, automatic station and lightning locator; Study on conceptual model of occurrence and development of mesoscale systems such as rainstorm, typhoon and strong convection.

(3) Short-term approach prediction and detection technology

1. Short-term nowcasting technology

Focus on improving severe weather forecasting technology and developing short-term forecasting technology. The key technologies include: MCS automatic identification, tracking and extrapolation prediction technology based on radar observation and satellite observation; The fusion technology of various extrapolation forecasts, such as automatic identification and tracking of strong storms, nonlinear automatic extrapolation, centroid tracking and extrapolation of strong storms, etc. Comprehensive integration technology of various data analysis and proximity prediction algorithms; Short-term forecast technology based on the fusion of extrapolation forecast and numerical forecast: short-term forecast technology of severe convective weather based on the fusion of observation data and numerical forecast correction products.

2. Short-term nowcasting detection technology

The research and development of short-term nowcasting detection technology provides a foundation for improving the technical level of short-term nowcasting. The key technologies include: (1) lattice quantitative precipitation estimation and correction technology applied to quantitative precipitation prediction and inspection; Testing technology of short-term approaching forecast based on comprehensive decision tree or fuzzy logic integration.

(d) Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and forecast (QPF) techniques.

1. quantitative precipitation estimation technology

Based on the observation data of radar, satellite and automatic station, the national high-resolution grid quantitative precipitation estimation technology is developed.

2. Quantitative precipitation forecasting technology

Vigorously develop the objective quantitative precipitation forecast technology and the interactive correction technology of numerical model quantitative precipitation forecast, and do a good job in high-resolution grid quantitative precipitation forecast. The key technologies include: quantitative precipitation grade forecasting method and model research; Quantitative precipitation dynamic statistical forecasting technology; Integrated quantitative precipitation forecasting technology based on multi-model: regional rainstorm diagnostic analysis and forecasting technology.

(5) Typhoon forecasting technology

1. Fine structure analysis technology of landing typhoon

Strengthen the analysis of the internal fine structure and its evolution characteristics of landing typhoon. The key technologies include: quality control technology of various typhoon observation data; Analysis technology of typhoon circle radius, typhoon scale, warm core and denaturation process; Three-dimensional fine structure analysis technology of typhoon; Typhoon objective location and intensity determination technology based on various data.

2. Typhoon objective forecasting technology

Vigorously develop landing typhoon forecasting technology, and improve the fine level of typhoon path, intensity and wind and rain forecasting. The key technologies include: assimilation and fusion of typhoon data and typhoon initial vortex formation technology; Typhoon ensemble forecasting technology; Objective deterministic forecast and probability forecast technology based on typhoon model: physical conceptual model and objective forecast technology of typhoon storm surge; Intensity change and path prediction technology of typhoon after landing.

(6) Interpretation technology of numerical forecast products

1. Fine objective forecast technology of conventional meteorological elements

Carry out research on dynamic statistical interpretation technology of numerical forecast products of conventional meteorological elements such as temperature and precipitation. The key technologies include: research on the applicability of forecasting methods; Processing technology of dynamic, thermal and comprehensive forecast factors; Fine grid/site prediction technology combining model interpretation and interactive correction; Improvement technology of complex terrain MOS forecast effect: objective analysis and interpolation technology of forecast products; Integrated processing technology of multi-meteorological element forecast: interpretation technology of multi-modal ensemble forecast products.

2. The objective forecast technology of disastrous weather.

Research on dynamic statistical interpretation technology of numerical forecast products for severe weather such as typhoon, rainstorm (snow), strong convection, fog and sandstorm. The key technologies include: the application technology of unconventional data such as radar in the interpretation of numerical forecast products; Interpretation technology of mesoscale ensemble forecast products; Regional modeling technology of small probability events.

(7) Probability forecasting technology based on ensemble forecasting.

Develop probability forecasting technology based on ensemble forecasting and multi-model integration to realize short-,medium-and long-term probability forecasting. The key technologies include: probability forecast technology of severe convective weather based on mesoscale ensemble forecast; Probability forecast technology of disastrous weather based on multi-mode set: probability forecast technology of meteorological elements based on set forecast.