Will the price of live pigs rise recently?

The price of pigs may rise in May and June this year, mainly due to serious pig diseases in many places last winter and this spring, especially epidemic diarrhea, which led to a sharp decline in the survival rate of piglets. With the stabilization and recovery in various places, pig diseases gradually stabilized, but the lost piglets began to affect the supply of live pigs from May to July, and ultimately affected the trend of the whole live pig market. Huaxia pig network provides the latest price of piglets, you can go and have a look.

First of all, from the cost point of view, labor resources are becoming more and more tense, labor costs are rising, and the prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal are also rising. At present, the average price of corn in 22 provinces and cities is 2.44 yuan/kg, which is 16% higher than last year's average price and 5% higher than the beginning of the year. At the same time, the rising cost of refined oil, water and electricity will inevitably squeeze the profits of aquaculture. At present, the profit of pig breeding has dropped rapidly, and the average profit of self-propagation and self-support has dropped to 100 yuan. The fattening of outsourced piglets has generally lost money, and the loss rate has been deepening. Farmers panic and slaughter to promote the rapid decline in pig prices.

Secondly, from the perspective of government purchasing and storage, the price of pig food fell below 6: 1 for the first time this week due to the sharp increase in costs. According to the regulations, the price of pig food has fallen below the break-even point of 6: 1 for four consecutive weeks, and the government will start purchasing and storing. At present, this price is basically the lowest. If we go any further, we will kill the sow.

Thirdly, judging from the growth law of piglets, due to the continuous low temperature in winter and spring and other factors, the piglet epidemic disease is high, and the piglet survival rate is generally low, which will lead to a decrease in the number of live pigs on the market around May this year, which may push up the price again.

Finally, from the perspective of holiday consumption, the current pig price trend is very similar to last September to 165438+ 10. At that time, the pig price fell for three consecutive months, which affected farmers to make up the column, and then the New Year's Day and Spring Festival effects ushered in a new wave of pig price rebound. At present, the price of pigs has been falling continuously for 10 week, with a drop of more than 20%, and the stock of pigs has also fallen for three consecutive months. It is expected that the upcoming "May Day" will promote the rebound of pig prices, and the rebound will be even higher because of the increase in feed costs.

Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China Pig Warning Network, also said recently that due to the recent continuous decline in pork prices and the high cost of raising pigs, some farmers have been reluctant to sell and eliminate pigs, and the space for pork prices to fall has been very limited, and there may be a bottoming out in the next two weeks. It is estimated that the price of live pigs will rise to above 16/kg by the end of May. During the high pig price on June 22 last year, the feed cost was not high; And if the increase in feed cost in May and June this year is passed on to the pig price, the increase in pig price will be even higher.

When analyzing the reasons for the continuous decline in the price of live pigs, the relevant person in charge of the Hainan Provincial Price Bureau introduced that the overall price of live pigs declined in March, and the price of live pigs fell by more than 6% from the previous month. The price of live pigs in Hainan Province is mainly supported by the prices of neighboring provinces such as Guangdong and Guangxi, and the wholesale price of live pigs in major sales areas such as Guangdong is lower, which leads to a decline in the price of live pigs in Hainan Province. At the same time, driven by the favorable situation of the live pig industry in Hainan Province last year, a large number of farmers filled the column, which led to the centralized listing of live pigs, and the market supply exceeded demand. Recently, the price of live pigs has continued to fall, and farmers have lost confidence in the expectations of the market outlook, leading to panic selling and accelerating the decline in pig prices. In addition, the preserved products stored by residents before the Spring Festival are still being digested, and the government's reserve meat was put on the market before the Spring Festival, which also led to a lower price of live pigs to some extent.

"As the temperature warms up, pork consumption will gradually decline, aggravating the current situation of oversupply in the market, and it is more likely that the price of live pigs will continue to fall." When talking about the market outlook forecast, the relevant person in charge of the Hainan Provincial Price Bureau said that recently, the Provincial Price Bureau took the lead in organizing some members of the provincial finance, agriculture, commerce and other departments to hold an emergency meeting, asking the provincial government to start the early warning of pig prices, and by promoting the deep processing of meat products, prevent the pig prices from falling sharply and rising sharply, support the breeding of fertile sows, speed up standardized scale breeding, encourage pigs to leave the island, increase frozen meat reserves, improve the risk protection mechanism, stabilize pig production and safeguard the interests of pig farmers.