Is the weather forecast for the next 15 days accurate?

The weather forecast for the next 15 days is not very accurate.

All weather forecasts are similar, but they all have certain accuracy.

Model weather forecast is to design a huge program to calculate weather forecast, and input the currently known weather phenomena, so that it can calculate the future atmospheric motion state and weather conditions.

The change of weather is the result of the change of atmospheric movement around the earth. The basic laws of fluid mechanics and thermodynamics in physics can be used to analyze the movement and change of the atmosphere, and these laws can be written into mathematical equations in mathematical language. By solving these mathematical equations with a large computer, people can predict the future air pressure, temperature, wind direction, wind speed and precipitation in a certain area. ...

Any forecasting model can't completely and truly simulate the evolution of the atmosphere, it can only be approximate, so there must be errors. Moreover, the error will accumulate, and the longer the prediction time, the greater the error.

Extended data:

The weather process is the change process of weather phenomena with time in a certain area. All kinds of weather systems have certain time and space scales, and they are intertwined and influence each other. The combination of many weather systems constitutes a large-scale weather situation and hemispheric and even global atmospheric circulation. The weather system is always in the process of rebirth, development and extinction, and there are corresponding weather phenomena in different development stages.

Weather forecast is to predict the weather conditions in a certain period in the future by applying the law of atmospheric change and according to the current and recent weather situation. It is based on the analysis of satellite cloud images and weather maps, combined with the comprehensive study of meteorological data, terrain and seasonal characteristics, and mass experience.