In 23, the solar activity will be greatly weakened. Will the earth enter the extremely cold Little Ice Age?

It is true that in the era of global warming, some experts said that in 23, the sun will "sleep" and the earth will enter the "Little Ice Age". This news was also mentioned in the Royal Astronomical Society.

This is similar to the discussion that the earth entered the Little Ice Age in 219 -22. It is a speculative explanation given by the change of solar activity, but it is not certain that our earth will definitely enter the Little Ice Age. This is why people have been saying for a long time that we are not sure whether it will enter or not. These are really speculative or analog data.

In the hot discussion in 219 -22, everyone said that the earth might enter the Little Ice Age, which was explained according to the change of sunspots. However, in September 22, NASA confirmed the appearance of sunspots, so this "farce" ended temporarily. There is no way to prove that the earth will continue to be sunspot-free in 219 -22 and enter the Little Ice Age.

what is the state of solar activity today?

as we said earlier, NASA has confirmed that sunspots have appeared and entered the 25th solar cycle, and the exact time to enter the 25th solar cycle is in December 219, so it has already started a lot.

This also shows that it is wrong for everyone to say that the solar activity continues to weaken at first. It is just that the solar activity cycle is in the minimum period, so the performance is not so obvious. At the same time, when the relationship between sunspots and small glaciers was first said, scientists or experts also came out and said that there was no direct evidence to prove the relationship between them.

So now that solar activity has entered a new cycle, there is absolutely no way to prove it by sunspots. At least this conclusion is no longer valid. At the same time, scientists use the current state. Once again, an early warning was issued, that is, it is predicted that solar activity will reach its peak in 225, that is, the maximum of the solar activity cycle, and the peak of sunspots will reach 115.

of course, whether the impact on the earth will have an impact at the maximum value depends on the solar flare. If it is too strong, it may have an impact on satellites and electronic equipment.

will the earth enter the little ice age in 23?

In the 26th cycle, the electromagnetic waves at these two levels became completely out of sync, which led to a drastic decrease in solar activity. At that time, it will cause the same effect as the' maunder minimum', and the solar activity will be very weak, so that the little ice age of the earth will begin.

So according to scientists, the solar activity is always going to enter the Little Ice Age. However, this is still based on simulation data, and whether the two are related is still inconclusive. This needs further exploration and research.

if the little ice age really appeared, what would happen to human beings?

If the earth really entered the Little Ice Age, it would be "life-threatening", and many animals and plants could not survive in extreme cold. For human beings, food crops can't grow, so human beings will also be affected.

Only for today, global warming is still going on. If there really is a Little Ice Age, it may not be like the little ice age recorded before, there will be extreme cold, and global warming may offset some of the cooling.

if it can't be offset, it is still possible for human science and technology to survive as long as it doesn't last too long. Now we humans have created a greenhouse to develop food crops. Although it is not carried out on a large scale, it can also show that humans have mastered this technology, so it is enough to support a part of the time. The threat to human beings will not be too great. In fact, it also reminds us of a problem, that is, under the conditions of extreme climate, we should be thrifty and not extravagant.

So generally speaking, even if the earth enters the Little Ice Age, the impact on us may not be too great. At the same time, although scientists have warned that the earth will enter the Little Ice Age, it does not mean that it will definitely happen. There are still 1 years to go before 23, and now the solar activity is just the beginning of 25 cycles. We will wait and see whether there will be a little ice age in the new minimum period.

At the same time, under the background of global warming, the Little Ice Age may not be so bad. If human beings don't protect the earth, they should rely on the natural changes of the earth to maintain it. Perhaps only in this way can we know how bad the earth is now and how threatening it is to the future of mankind, and then we will wake up to maintain it.

a simple search can easily find the source of this message.

Yes, it's an "old friend" that we are very familiar with-the British Daily Mail. In fact, the second half of this sentence, that is, the sentence after the so-called "scientist said", was the headline used by the Daily Mail when it reported this news on July 1. Considering the distinctive style of the Daily Mail, their reports must be carefully examined with critical glasses. According to the report, a new study predicts that solar activity will be reduced by 6% by the 23s.

first of all, it should be pointed out that the "solar activity" mentioned here does not mean that the sun is shining and heating, but that there are activities such as sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections on the sun. Take sunspots as an example. In some years, the number of sunspots is particularly large, while in other years, the number of sunspots is particularly small.

Since about 172 years ago, astronomers have summed up a rule based on previous observations-the solar activity fluctuates periodically, from peak to trough, and this period is about 11 years. This is an empirical rule, which is based on past observations. It's as if the sun rose in the east every day in the past, from which we can draw a rule and predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. However, the physical laws behind the rising sun are clear to us, and we can even accurately calculate when and from which direction the sun will rise tomorrow. However, scientists have not fully understood the physical process behind the periodic changes of solar activity.

although the solar activity has followed this law since it was put forward, and it fluctuates alternately in about 11 years, the exact intensity of solar activity in each cycle is different. So far, there is no theory or model that can accurately predict how intense or dull the solar activity will be in the next cycle.

The new research mentioned in the Daily Mail is one of many theoretical models that try to accurately reproduce the specific changes of solar activity. It was proposed by valentina Zarco, a professor of mathematics in university of northumbria, England. Zarco Watt pointed out that there are two cycles in the sun, both of which are about 11 years, but the frequency is slightly different. These two cycles are superimposed, sometimes added and sometimes offset, which leads to the different activities of the sun in each cycle. According to Zarco Watt, their model can accurately reproduce the observation data of the current solar cycle with an accuracy rate of 97%. They also compared the previous three solar cycles (1976-28) and found that the model predictions were in good agreement with the observation records. This model further predicts that these two cycles in the sun are staggering, and by the next solar cycle, that is, between 23 and 24, they will be completely opposite and offset each other, resulting in a significant decrease in the intensity of solar activity.

This is what the Daily Mail reported, "Solar activity will be reduced by 6% around 23". Again, what we are talking about here is not that the light and heat emitted by the sun will be reduced by 6%, but that the sun will be in a long period of calm, and activities such as sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections will be reduced by 6%. Although complicated mathematical methods and computer simulations are used, Zarco Watt's model is still an empirical law in essence, which is summarized from the observation data of the intensity of solar activity in the past three cycles. The specific physical process behind it, that is, the two cycles proposed by Zarco Watt, is only a scientific and reasonable guess. But guess is a guess after all, and it can't be regarded as the fact that the earth rotates until it is supported by more evidence.

to say the least, what if Zarco's prediction comes true?

solar activity has been in a state of calm for a long time, which is not unheard of in history. The most famous one is the Maunder Minimum. According to historical observation data, from 1645 to 1715, astronomers rarely recorded sunspot activity, thus inferring that solar activity was in a lasting calm period. However, according to the report in the Daily Mail, "this led to the total freezing of the Thames in London, and the' frozen exposition' held on the Thames became a commonplace at that time." (Note that this sentence was not said by Zarco Watt. The study only discussed the change of solar activity from beginning to end, and never mentioned the climate change on the earth. Indeed, whether in Europe, North America or China, there were cold weather recorded in history all over the world from the 16th century to the 18th century, so this period was also called "Little Ice Age".

In terms of time, this "Little Ice Age" does seem to coincide with "maunder minimum". However, according to the reconstructed historical temperature records, the trend of global temperature decline began from 156 to 16, and the "maunder minimum" did not appear until 1645, nearly 5 years later. It doesn't make sense to blame the temperature drop on the calming of solar activity, at least on the timeline.

Geological research shows that most of the "Little Ice Age" in geological history occurred when large-scale volcanic activities took place. Volcanic activity will emit smoke and dust, wrap the earth and block some sunlight-this is the main reason for the earth's cooling. As for solar activity, a study published in Science magazine in 21 showed that the weakening of solar activity in maunder minimum only reduced the average temperature of the earth by about .3.

A study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 21 has even used a variety of climate models to deduce a hypothetical scenario: What will happen to the global temperature if the earth experiences a solar minimum for 7 years again?

The result is unexpected: if we go through the solar minimum for 7 years again, by 21, the global average temperature will only be about .1 lower than that without the minimum; At the same time, due to other factors, the temperature rise of the earth may reach 3-4. In other words, whether you experience the maunder minimum again or not, the future earth will be much hotter than it is now.

In a word, Zarco Watt predicted that the solar activity would tend to be calm, in order to let time test whether his model is correct, instead of warning the world that "winter is coming" through the Daily Mail! What's more, even if the prediction comes true, the weakening of solar activity will not help at all for the rising average temperature of the earth.

It is a rumor that the solar activity will be greatly weakened in 23. The problem of the rumor lies in the misinterpretation of foreign media statements and the processing after being taken out of context. The Daily Mail reported that sunspots and flares may be greatly reduced in 23. This does not mean that the activity of the sun is greatly weakened, and the activity of the sun still exists, and the quality consumed in the nuclear fusion process is not expected to be reduced.

Flare weakening is also a model speculation. According to the 23rd cycle of the sun, it is necessary to observe whether the sunspot activity is greatly weakened. However, the weakening of sunspots and flares has little to do with the entry of the Earth into the Little Ice Age, and the appearance of the Ice Age is one of the periodic events of the Earth's ecosystem. There have been many ice ages in the history of the earth. Although the sun has certain factors, it is not the main factor. The emergence of the ice age is related to the geological activities of the earth itself, and of course the tectonic movements involved will also lead to the emergence of the ice age.

As for the sun, we all know that solar activities will greatly affect the earth. So, will global warming be partly due to the sun? Although the sun's radiation is not static, it is constantly changing with an 11-year cycle. Scientists have calculated the average value of solar radiation in an 11-year cycle and found that in the past half century, solar radiation has not increased, on the contrary, it has declined slightly. Obviously, the amount of solar radiation has little to do with the ice age and global warming, and global warming is not caused by solar activities. Similarly, the appearance of ice age has little to do with the amount of radiation. The ice age is more a periodic change of the earth's geological activities. At a certain time, the ice age will appear, which needs to be found from the earth's own geological activities.