Typhoon Meihua is approaching the eastern coast of China. How will the weather in Guangdong be affected?

Typhoon plum blossom has an indissoluble bond with Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. There was a typhoon named Meihua in the northwest Pacific before, and all major institutions predicted that it would attack East China with the intensity of a strong typhoon, but because

With the change of circulation, the high-pressure ridge on the east side is not as deep as expected, and it turns to Guangdong in the offshore of Shanghai. However, now, this "plum blossom" has become fierce, just like the story that the wolf must be eaten by the wolf in the end.

Like losing sheep, this plum blossom will inevitably bring extremely significant wind and rain impact to the Yangtze River Delta region. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory,

There will still be a strong wind of 40m/s south of Hangzhou Bay and Shanghai, which is the upper limit of typhoon level. If this prediction comes true, it will be a solution.

Typhoon Gloria, the strongest typhoon that landed in Shanghai since its release, has been more than 49 years.

1. Why can Meihua come to the East China Sea north of 30 degrees north latitude in September and maintain its strong strength? This is related to many aspects.

Related factors. The seawater temperature in the East China Sea is on the high side. Although a few days ago, Typhoon Xuanlannuo has searched the sea surface temperature in the East China Sea, the overall situation of Xuanlannuo is

The easterly path also makes a wide surface seawater with a temperature of 27-28 degrees in the offshore area to provide energy for plum blossoms. Although the temperature is very low

It is not enough to strengthen Meihua to super typhoon level, but the intensity of strong typhoon can still be maintained. In addition, the East China Sea is offshore.

It still has a good enthalpy, and it is also a major factor to maintain or strengthen typhoons.

Stability of eastern subtropical high system and development of northeast warm ridge. The typhoon moved against the southwest edge of the subtropical high.

Yes, that is to say, the shape and location of the subtropical high on the east side will play a very key role in the direction of this typhoon. And guidance

The subtropical high in eastern Meihua is relatively strong, but the general intensity can only support the offshore north of Meihua.

Go up without considering landing. This time, things are different. On the westerly belt, there is a long-wave warm ridge in East Asia, and the subtropical high is affected.

The dynamic conditions provided by the long wave ridge are strengthened by the northward uplift, and an anticline ridge appears in the northeast, which will turn plum blossoms like a pot cover.

Stop it and let it move only to the northwest.

The foundation strength of plum blossom is relatively high. It was a strong typhoon before the stagnation in the eastern part of Taiwan Province Province, although the intensity was stagnant.

It has been weakened, but the current structure has been relatively stable, and there is still room for strengthening. In other words, it is likely to be fast in the East China Sea.

The area has developed into a strong typhoon, and even if it weakens slowly, there is not much time left for it to weaken.

Because of this, Meihua is likely to become the annual typhoon in East China this year, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region. However, plum blossom in the late road.

There is still some uncertainty about the route: should we brush Shanghai from the west or drill into Hangzhou Bay? The two have different influences on Shanghai.

Yes

This is because, although the typhoon looks symmetrical, it is actually divided into two and a half circles. For typhoon Meihua in the north,

Its west side is navigable for half a circle, and the wind speed is not so strong; On the east side is a dangerous semicircle, which is provided by the superposition effect of moving speed and subtropical high.

Under the action of stronger pressure gradient, the wind force on the east side is often obviously greater than that on the west side. At present, there is also a numerical forecast in this respect.

Point uncertainty. In addition, this northbound typhoon is affected by the westerly belt, and there is a wind shear from southwest to northeast, which may make the eye wall structure in the west.

The side is weak, but the northeast is thick, which may also increase its wind and rain intensity in the northeast. In other words, if you can

Flowers take the route of landing in Hangzhou Bay, so Shanghai may be very dangerous.

Second, when plum blossoms landed near the coast, it coincided with the astronomical tide. With the intensity of a strong typhoon, there may be a strong storm surge to increase water. This may lead to

There may be other ecological problems or tap water pollution caused by salt tide intrusion. At present, due to the influence of warm and humid airflow on the north side of the typhoon and the spread of weak cold air to the south, inverted trough precipitation has occurred in Shanghai and other places, and it has fallen back.

The water intensity is not small, and the Pudong New Area in Shanghai issued an orange rainstorm warning. Therefore, it should be noted that this inverted trough precipitation seems fierce.

But this is actually just the beginning, and the big one is yet to come. We need to be prepared.

Plum blossom convection is almost W-shaped, and it has become a strong typhoon with big eyes except for the weak northwest quadrant. at present

His strength is similar to that of 17 attacking Tian Ge in Zhuhai. Tian Ge landed at the level of a strong typhoon (45 m/s), which is also in line with astronomical scale.

Tide, causing serious losses. With the development of 92w in the Pacific Ocean on the east side of Meihua, the organization shifted the route of Meihua to the west, and now the possibility of landing is 80%.

It is expected to land along the coast from Xiangshan to Zhoushan. It is expected that the wind shear in the north-central coast of Zhejiang Province will be large, and the intensity of plum blossom will be weakened before landing. It is expected that plum blossom may still be in Taiwan Province.

Landing in China's upper wind limit or strong typhoon level.

The super typhoon "Xuanlannuo" entered the East China Sea, the wind force 16, and the circulation was huge, which made East China sweat.

Fortunately, it turned in time and swept across the East China Sea. On the other hand, South Korea is not so lucky. After announcing the transfer to South Korea, it caused quite a stir in South Korea.

Huge waves and storms caused 0/0 deaths and 2 missing in Korea/KLOC. Including roads and bridges, public facilities are 3 12, 1320 hectares.

Crops are damaged.

Now, another strong typhoon "Meihua" is close to the then "Xuanlannuo" and enters the East China Sea, targeting Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai.

3. On the satellite cloud picture, we can find that the cloud system of strong typhoon Meihua is smaller than Xuanlannuo. But the north is connected with an upside-down one.

The trough cloud system, the so-called inverted trough, is a low-pressure trough with "λ" isobar in the ground pressure field. The trough is open to the south or southwest, and the trough bottom is north or

Low-value weather system extending to the northeast. From the radar mosaic in East China, it can be found that a large number of inverted trough rain belts echo to the shore, covering the central and northern edge of Zhejiang Province.

Shanghai and Shanghai. This is the first wave of wind and rain brought by strong typhoon Meihua to East China. Next, we analyze the structure of the strong typhoon Meihua and the next step. Visible light cloud image shows strong typhoon plum blossom

The eye area is not very round, and it has just experienced the cold water pit announced by the predecessors before it began to re-integrate its own structure. BD cloud map also

It shows that the convection at its core is not strong.

For Meihua, its path will be directly affected by three factors: the subtropical high in the eastern ring, the westerly belt and its own strength. First of all, for

As far as the East Ring Subtropical High is concerned, its intensity is higher than expected at present, and it will block to the east of Meihua like a wall, reducing its eastward division.

Quantity, make its path to the west than expected; The influence of westerly belt on plum blossom path is mainly reflected in the establishment and guidance of northeast ridge on the north side.

The subtropical high extends to the northwest, which is equivalent to building a dam on the north side of Meihua to prevent it from specialization. The interaction between the two will be greatly improved.

The possibility of landing plum blossoms has led to the westernization of plum blossoms.