The next weather

One of the most obvious features of the weather this year is "hot".

How hot is it? I believe that friends in the southern region have a deep understanding.

At one time, in the list of national high temperature Top 10, the temperature of the tenth place also reached 43℃, and the temperatures of 70 national stations such as Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang all reached or exceeded historical extremes.

From late July to the end of August, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued 4 1 day high temperature warning continuously, including red high temperature warning 12 days continuously.

From the national map, the southern region is red, just like a barbecue in summer, and it is also very spicy.

In addition to the heat, there is a persistent drought.

According to the website of the Ministry of Water Resources, since July this year, the Yangtze River basin has been suffering from high temperature and little rain, with less water coming from rivers, the water level has continued to fall, and the drought has developed very rapidly.

As of August 30, the drought-affected area of cultivated land in the Yangtze River basin reached 43.25 million mu, with about 4.73 million people and 7 1 10,000 large livestock affected by drought water supply.

Different from the high temperature and drought in the south, this year's eager rainfall in the south generally ran to the north.

Just as the south was boiling hot, a heavy precipitation process was ushered in parts of northwest, north and northeast China.

Since mid-July, heavy rains have caused floods in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu.

Heavy rains have also occurred in many places in Liaoning, and the rainfall in some areas has also broken the record of one-day rainfall in the history of local observation.

After entering September, as the weather turned cold, the large-scale continuous high temperature weather in the south finally ended. Just when people breathed a sigh of relief for the end of the high temperature, another heart was lifted, because the next weather development will become crucial.

At present, it is a critical period for the formation of autumn grain crop yield, and the weather change will become very critical.

In the early stage, the growth of autumn grain was once threatened because of the pattern of "drought in the south and waterlogging in the north"

Among them, corn and rice are the most influential.

The bulk of China's annual grain output is autumn grain, and the bulk of autumn grain is corn.

Corn shoulders the dual roles of deep processing and feed grain, so the fluctuation of corn market is well collected.

Due to the continuous drought in the south, the growth of corn in some areas is threatened, while Liaoning, Jilin and other places are affected by heavy rain, and some low-lying areas are seriously waterlogged, which may lead to the delay in the listing of corn in Northeast China this year.

On the other hand, the yield and quality of corn in the whole northern hemisphere are threatened by high temperature and drought.

For example, in the latest crop growth report of the US Department of Agriculture, the excellent rate of American corn was once again lowered to 55%, a record low.

In addition, the spinning rate and wax maturity rate are also lower than the normal level.

However, the EU's corn production reduction is expected to be high, and many major corn producing countries such as France and Romania have lowered their production expectations several times.

Another important crop of autumn grain is rice. As the largest grain variety in China, rice accounts for more than 40% of autumn grain output, which is very important to China's food security.

As the agricultural proverb says, "the drought and flood are set on July 15th, and the harvest is set on August 15th". July, August and September are the key periods for the growth and yield formation of autumn grain, and also the periods of frequent droughts, floods and extreme weather.

This year's high temperature and drought will have a certain impact on the yield of middle rice.

Some early-maturing mid-season rice in central and southern Anhui, eastern Hubei and other places have entered the critical period one after another and are sensitive to high temperature. Continuous high temperature will lead to a decrease in seed setting rate, which means that the probability of yield reduction will increase.

Not long ago, the central government issued a special drought relief fund of 654.38+000 billion, focusing on supporting drought relief in mid-season rice.

Therefore, as the autumn harvest approaches, the next weather change becomes very important.

So, what's the weather like next?

According to the forecast, the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in September will be slightly higher than that in the same period of last year, which will alleviate the drought to a certain extent, but the drought in some areas with severe drought may continue and the drought situation is still grim.

On the other hand, the rainfall in North China, East China and Northeast China decreased in early September, which has a certain positive effect on corn growth, but there is still more rainfall in northeast Inner Mongolia and northwest Heilongjiang, so attention should be paid to prevention.

On the whole, it is expected that the weather will be stable in the future, and the impact on autumn grain will generally be small without being too extreme.

Under the influence of the weather, the open-scale price of autumn grain this year will become the focus of collection, or it will become the weather vane of the whole autumn grain price trend.