As corn prices continue to fluctuate, the "three major trends" of corn this year have emerged!

Corn prices will still be mixed in the near future. The difference is that a while ago, they fell in Northeast China and rose in North China and Shandong. Recently, prices in Northeast and Shandong rose, while North China saw mixed prices. situation.

Prices continue to fluctuate, and the market is also worried.

The corn futures market trended strongly last week, which once gave the spot market greater confidence. However, as corn harvest continues and upstream pressure continues to increase, there is a risk of a correction in corn.

Although on the surface, the price of corn does not change much. It is mostly a trend of one rising and one falling, one falling and one rising. But in fact, as the market continues to advance, next, there are three major trends in corn. Already vaguely predictable.

1. Concentrate the quantity or be differentiated

Before the autumn harvest, the biggest focus in the market is the yield of corn. Whether corn yield will decrease or increase has always been controversial, but with the As the autumn harvest draws to a close, the focus of collections in the market has shifted, from a battle over production to a battle over concentrated quantity.

According to traditional experience, during the autumn harvest of corn, there will often be a concentrated increase in quantity. At this time, due to the increase in short-term supply, the market will be in a state of oversupply, so the price will fall.

This is often a good time for trade and enterprises to build and replenish their warehouses.

But judging from this year’s situation, it is very likely that this concentrated volume will be divided.

Why do you say that?

First, due to weather factors, this year’s corn harvest has been continuously delayed, and this year’s Spring Festival is earlier. Therefore, the market believes that farmers who sold grain years ago will have shorter grain storage time. , then the probability of concentration increases.

However, the quality of corn this year is generally better than that of the previous year, which also means that the difficulty of preservation is reduced. Coupled with the increase in planting costs this year, farmers are reluctant to sell at high prices and are not in a hurry to sell grain.

On the other hand, in the past, farmers’ families rarely had other income besides growing grain. However, with the continuous advancement of urbanization in recent years, many rural families also have other income, so selling grain is not their only livelihood. , which greatly reduces the urgency of selling grain.

Second, as the weather gets colder and there are signs of epidemics spreading in many places recently, transportation continues to fluctuate and become unstable, which also causes the concentrated amount of corn to be dispersed.

The third is to refer to the market situation last year. The situation last year is somewhat similar to this year. The market has been waiting for a concentrated increase in volume, but in fact, corn has been fluctuating up and down. The so-called concentrated increase in volume leads to large prices. The decline did not occur, leaving many traders waiting in vain.

Therefore, it is not ruled out that this year will be similar to last year.

2. Market game stalemate

The current purchase and sale of corn has not really started yet, but the emotions shown by the current market entities are real.

Farmers are reluctant to sell, especially for high-quality dry grains. In the past two years, the main entities that built warehouses when new grains were launched have suffered more losses, which has made traders and drying towers have a higher wait-and-see mood. .

The entities collecting grain are not in a hurry to collect, while the entities selling grain are not in a hurry to sell, so the probability of market stalemate is high.

On the other hand, the market has different views on the trend of grain prices.

Some people are bullish, believing that as the cost of imported corn rises, domestic substitution decreases, and the profits of the breeding industry increase, which will increase the demand for corn feeding, thereby driving up corn prices;

But Some people also believe that although there are many factors that are bullish on the surface, the strongest period of the live pig trend is before the year of 2020. Once consumption drops after the year, there is likely to be a sharp drop, and the demand for corn will also follow. drop.

The year before last was also the peak period of corn production. The two offset each other and would inhibit the rise of corn.

Buyers and sellers are in a stalemate, and the market has different opinions, so the game of corn may intensify in the future.

3. Frequent price fluctuations

In addition to the intensification of the game, another trend of corn is frequent price fluctuations, which are specifically manifested as rise and fall swaps and mixed rises and falls.

There are two main aspects that affect the rise and fall of corn prices:

First, the market's mentality of replenishing stocks.

That is, after the corn is fully harvested, companies will need to establish full-year inventory due to the demand gap for corn, and the demand for replenishment purchases will also determine the rise and fall of corn prices.

The second is the influence of international corn.

Although U.S. corn prices have risen and Ukraine’s corn production has declined, according to market news, China is seeking new sources of corn since the cost of U.S. corn imports has risen sharply. Myanmar has tried to export 1,000 tons of corn to China. tons of corn.

China has also signed relevant agreements with Brazil before, and Brazilian corn will be exported to China as soon as December.

The import cost of Brazilian corn is relatively low, which will inevitably trigger another round of price increases and decreases in the domestic market.