From now on, the days are short and the nights are long

At some point at the end of this year, I plan to quietly pull Wang Yunqing, the founder of DearAuto, aside to slightly lower the stakes of the bet ten years ago. For this reason, on the New Year's Day that just passed, I delivered a box of purple buckwheat wine from my hometown to him to numb his pride and bring him closer.

Although my heart is unwilling, I am convinced by my eyes and my mouth. In July 2017, I wrote an article titled "Who's Knocking on Your Window" to collect debts from Teacher Wang. According to the trend in the first half of the year, the sales volume for the whole year that year was 28.98 million to 30 million vehicles, which is a mere 3.5% distance. Victory seemed within reach, but unexpectedly, punishment came swiftly.

Still lamenting the 2.8% decline in 2018 and feeling lucky? The accelerated downward trend in 2019 is coming with panic! At this point in the situation, we are convinced that the prosperity has faded, and from now on the days will be shorter and the nights will be longer.

Facing an even more uncertain year in 2020, have the growth momentum and foundation of Chinese automobiles been completely lost? The new energy market that lost subsidies will turn downward in the second half of 2019. Are All?in electric vehicles a huge gamble with no future?

These issues are urgent and important. Unable to find a wrong starting point, we would rather never start.

The decline accelerated in 2019

In 2018, the cold wave in the auto market did not arrive until May when the ice in Mohe melted; in 2019, Sanya’s rapeseed flowers just bloomed in early February. Hopes are quickly dashed.

On December 8, 2019, the latest automobile sales data from the China Automobile Association showed that from January to November, automobile sales were 23.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Sales for the full year of 2019 are expected to be approximately 25.83 million vehicles, a drop of more than 8%.

The "Matthew Effect" in which the strong remain strong and the weak are eliminated quickly is reflected in every market segment. In the first 11 months of 2019, the market share of the top ten joint venture brands increased from 82.9% in the same period last year to 85.8%; the market share of the top five independent brands increased from 55.7% in 2018 to 57.7%. The market is either hot or cold, and the strong will strengthen themselves.

In 2012, they were forced to slow down due to the "Diaoyu Islands Incident". Toyota, Honda and Nissan, which took the initiative to adjust, have become miracles of growth despite being weak since 2018; Volkswagen went in the opposite direction - FAW - Volkswagen has perfectly escaped the decline zone with the help of its strong SUV strategy and the Jetta in the low-end market to fill its position; while SAIC-Volkswagen, which is deeply mired in pride and complacency, ended in a shocking Passat "collision gate" incident in the last month of 2019 A miserable 2019.

From a 2.8% decline in 2018 to an 8.7%* (expected) accelerated decline in 2019, what exactly caused the Chinese auto market to end its 30-year boom and enter a cold winter?

The complex and ever-changing economic environment at home and abroad, increasingly tight environmental protection requirements and the loss of growth momentum in the third- and fourth-tier markets are recognized as important factors leading to the downward trend of automobiles from 2018 to 2019.

But the truth goes beyond that: exaggerated expectations of China’s total market size, short-term and changeable industrial policies, unprepared and poor products from independent brands, joint ventures’ Great Leap Forward capacity planning and luxury brands A bottomless price war. It is the main culprit that caused the auto market to lose momentum.

The "Matthew Effect" will push weak car companies into the abyss, while the new strong ones after restructuring will be better able to adapt to the next round of fighting and become the leaders of the new cycle.

It is certain that although the market will once again be full of warmth and new trendsetters, those names that have disappeared in the long river of history will be completely sealed by time, as if they had never appeared.

40 million cars kill people

Car inventories are the root of all evil! However, the inventory comes from huge production capacity planning and mirage-like sales targets. Ultimately, it will point to the ambitious and unrealistic expected target of "annual sales of 45 million vehicles" that was popular 10 years ago.

In 2009, China's auto market reached the top of the world with 13.64 million vehicles, and began to dominate the world at a growth rate that staggered everyone. This overwhelming trend has obscured too many eyes.

Kafka said: "Although there is a purpose, there is nowhere to follow; what we call a road is nothing more than hesitation."

Xu Heyi and Xu Liuping are all looking forward to the future. The number of Chinese cars has soared from 40 million to 50 million. Nobel Prize economist Edward Prescott boasted at the 2010 Chengdu "Global Automobile Forum" that "China's cars are expected to reach 75 million by 2030." Teacher Xu Changming, who was sitting in the second row, endured the foreign spittle and looked at the PPT "China's auto market has annual sales of 40 million vehicles" on his computer with shame. He couldn't help but feel sad at the same time.

I must mention the ten-year bet between Wang Yunqing and I in 2010. At the Guangzhou Auto Show this year, at the dinner at the rooftop restaurant of the Grand Hyatt Hotel, I was infected by the atmosphere of passionate future predictions. I predict cautiously and optimistically: before 2020, China's auto market is expected to exceed 30 million vehicles in stages, but will eventually return to a total of around 25 million vehicles to maintain balance; Teacher Wang is a pessimist. He judged that before 2020, China's auto market will It is impossible to reach 30 million vehicles.

The results confirm: the more pessimistic wins.

Even if the auto market fell back below 26 million vehicles in 2019, Mr. Xu Changming still took the trouble to promote his "40 million vehicles" theory on various occasions, looking at his familiar PPT formulas, and then looking outside The car market is full of victims, and I can't help but feel sad in my heart and hate in my guts.

Smart companies did not listen to economists, nor did they pay attention to Xu Changming’s PPT. From 2010 to 2016, North and South Toyota only added 200,000 units of production capacity in China; Honda, which was once ready to make a big move, also decisively delayed the expansion of new factories after hitting a wall in 2015; Nissan, which was slightly bolder, only added Dongfeng The rest of its surplus production capacity will be transformed.

On the contrary, Beijing Hyundai, Changan Ford, and Shenlong Automobile, which were intoxicated by 40 million vehicles, were each in worse condition than the other. Volkswagen can't hold on to its dream either. In 2019, it achieved a staggering 6 million vehicles in China. FAW-Volkswagen stumbled in 2019, and SAIC-Volkswagen experienced a unilateral decline. The 4.14 million Volkswagen units sold in 2018 is most likely a historical record for Volkswagen in China.

Volkswagen’s extra 2 million units of production capacity will be a lingering worry for the two joint ventures in the coming days and nights.

Born to the south

"I am too south!" suddenly became a greeting when meeting each other in 2019. Ridiculing and self-deprecating in the dialog box on the phone suddenly became fashionable .

It is difficult to switch between "National Five" and "National Six", it is difficult for new forces to build and deliver cars, it is difficult for traditional companies to sell cars, it is difficult for new energy to grow after subsidies are withdrawn, and it is difficult for graduates of 2020 traditional automotive majors to find jobs. , It is even more difficult for a 40-year-old car sales representative to find another job after being laid off.

The good road has been completed before 2017, and life will naturally become more and more difficult.

Why is it so difficult? In the view of "Automobile Commune":

First of all, from 2015 to 2017, due to strong policy incentives and the weak effects of a large number of products, the auto market has overdrawn the future;

Second, new cars Sales volume is strongly related to the number of new jobs. The decline in new jobs and the increase in invisible unemployment in 2018 and 2019 have led to a rapid decline in the new purchasing power of the car market;

Third, the growth of second-hand cars in 2018 17% and the growth rate of second-hand cars is expected to be 9% in 2019, resulting in a crowding-out effect on the low-end new car market;

Fourth, from 2018 to 2019, the use cycle of cars began to lengthen, data It shows that 2018 was 0.47 years longer than 2017, and the willingness to postpone car purchases is very obvious.

All of this will eventually manifest itself in two obvious characteristics: rational consumption upgrades and irrational purchase delays.

The former shows that more practical and reliable products and brands are sought after (Japanese), and low-end models marked by Wuling are being abandoned at an accelerated pace; the latter shows that: price wars are in the ascendant and inventory is in deep decline. Climb up.

The car market is becoming more difficult and "nan" (difficult), and it is also heading south (south).

As the market shrinks, the "Matthew Effect" continues to divide regional markets and brands. The major economic provinces of Shandong, Hebei and Henan are in economic difficulties, and the economic dualization of the strong south and the weak north is also accelerating the fragmentation of China's auto market.

In the next few years, southern local brands represented by Geely and Changan, and southern joint ventures represented by Japanese brands will continue to expand their leading advantages in the future; with the economically developed Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area markets as the core The coastal southern market will occupy an increasingly important proportion of China's auto market.

Whoever occupies the south will gain the upper hand. "FAW-Volkswagen's share in southern China has increased by nearly 2% since 2019." On November 18 last year, Zhang Qiang, then general manager of FAW-Volkswagen's South China region, told Automobile Commune. FAW-Volkswagen competed in the Japanese stronghold and maintained slight growth for the whole year in 2019, and followed a completely different cycle curve from its brother SAIC-Volkswagen, which was losing ground in the south.

In "China and Japan Must Fight", "Automobile Commune" predicts: With the future economic integration of East Asia and profound changes in global automobiles in the next ten years, "hybrid + electric" will be the core driver Strong Japanese cars will continue to compete in the Chinese market, and their share of the Chinese car market is expected to rise from about 20% currently to a maximum of 30%. However, they will eventually gradually give up competing with Chinese brands in the low-end market around 2030. , gradually and proactively returned to around 25%, forming the second largest force after Chinese local brands.

The Three Crossroads of Giants

This year, "Automobile Commune" told many stories: some were stories of decline, and some were stories of growth against the trend; some were angry and undisputed, and some were Sad stories of misfortune; stories of people and stories of spring.

I am not going to continue to ridicule Mr. Anjin, nor will I touch the fragile and sensitive hearts of those who have sold the legendary Jaguar Land Rover so poorly but are still finding ways to shine. History will justifiably abandon them in the pile of old papers, leaving only their exaggerated and clumsy backs.

Over the years, results and figures have come so dazzlingly and easily. This majestic momentum has caused so many prosperity to bloom like fireworks and made many people have illusions.

Mistaking blowouts for normalcy and mistaking platforms for abilities are common mistakes that every ordinary person makes, and they are made again and again in these prosperous years.

But the consequences of karma come quickly. In the brutal knockout competition, powerful companies such as SAIC Group have ushered in a turning point in 2019. Sales reached an unprecedented peak of 7.05 million vehicles in 2018 and then declined rapidly. It is expected to fall to around 6.1 million vehicles in 2019. As the core pillars SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling continue to be optimistic about the decline, in the next three years, SAIC’s sales will fall below 5 million vehicles. Probabilistic events.

Dongfeng, which was born in 1969 and surpassed FAW in 2010 to become the runner-up, celebrated its 50th anniversary in a low-key manner last year. In many months last year, FAW's sales figures were actually infinitely close to Dongfeng's. Since 2015, due to various reasons, Dongfeng's top-level design has experienced serious delays and misjudgments. Not only has there been no progress in independent integration and new energy development strategies, but DPCA's collapse of "natural disasters + man-made disasters" has been jaw-dropping.

On the other hand, since Xu Liuping took charge of FAW, FAW has continued to buck the trend in Hongqi, commercial vehicles and joint venture businesses, taking "Red Flag" as its starting point. With two powerful joint venture partners, Volkswagen and Toyota, even if Audi is unable to charge forward, it will surpass Dongfeng in 2020 and threaten SAIC's leading position in 2023.

In November 2019, the China Insurance Research Institute’s Passat “collision scandal” broke out, which opened up the last fig leaf for SAIC Volkswagen, the core unit of SAIC. What seemed to be a product quality incident was actually a problem for the entire SAIC Group. The price of years of arrogance. The surge of Hongqi's 100,000 vehicles and FAW's rise against the trend show that the strong state-owned capital, driven by a strong leader, and the Chinese model of "concentrating efforts to do big things" still have strong vitality.

Dongfeng is another representative. After 2015, due to successive impacts, Dongfeng completely fell into self-restraint. Decision makers hesitated to move forward, doers stayed away, and spoilers took the opportunity to revel. A sad song, how much wasted.

The three independent giants Geely Automobile, Great Wall and Changan Automobile passed 2019 without any danger, but each of the three leaders has its own pains. Geely Automobile's existing talent reserves, financial status and R&D reserves cannot support such a huge system in the long winter; Changan Automobile's long night, if it were not broken by the CS75?Plus tenaciously, the company would completely leave the first echelon; Great Wall Motors The Haval F7 series became the "most beautiful kid" in the gray and cold night of 2019, but WEY has shown no improvement. Great Wall Motor's brand breakthrough road is the same as Lynk & Co. The road is longer than the heart and the dream is farther than the feet.

JAC and Zotye? In fact, lingering is a deeper pain; the death of the cheetah and Huan Su is not a kind of liberation and eternal life!

"The cradle is rocking above hell."

"The cradle is rocking above hell." When "Auto Commune" took stock at the end of last year, looking forward to 2019, amid confusion and decline, With compassion and perseverance, we continue to tenaciously search for hope for the future.

Thank you so much for this decisive and ruthless purge. It washes away the lead and allows the years to settle; it drives away bad coins and allows the good to be noticed; it charms the future and allows discipline and awe to emanate. The light of wisdom.

“2019 is not the most difficult time for the auto market, because many companies are now making pretty good profits. When the profits of these companies are no longer guaranteed, then it will be really difficult.” In July 2019, Facing the unprecedented negative growth of -16.5%, Geely Automobile President An Conghui said.

“In 2020 and 2021, Toyota will face tremendous pressure from dual points and CAFC (Coffee Law) in China. If the points plan is implemented, profits will be greatly affected.” Toyota China On the afternoon of December 27, 2019, Executive Deputy General Manager Dong Changzheng was filled with worries when looking into the future.

One is a leader in independent brands, and the other is a strong and unrivaled joint venture brand. Faced with the uncertainty of the future, they are already preparing for the worst.

Leaders should be prepared for danger in times of peace, and avoid extravagance and be frugal in times of crisis. On the evening of December 28, 2019, NIO’s LOGO, Li Bin’s smile and the pledge of “Belive in Better” stood side by side at the huge Shenzhen Stadium. More than 10,000 car owners went to “NEO Day” (NIO Day) at their own expense. Japan), calling for Li Bin who is in difficulty and a platform for China’s electric future.

Why can Musk lead Tesla to break through crisis after crisis in the past 15 years without giving Weilai and Li Bin, who have the same dream, a "chance to fail"? Although it has suffered countless doubts and financial crises, it has become the closest company to Tesla and the most deserving of success among all new forces.

"2019 may be the worst year in the past 10 years, but it will be the best year in the next 10 years." These people's chicken soup is not helpful in helping us penetrate into the future.

The explosive growth of China’s automobiles that started in 2000 has ended in 2017, but the process of China’s automobile civilization has not ended. After the squeeze market cleared from 2018 to 2022, the huge market Based on the basics and "good money drives out bad money", a more rational and high-quality Chinese auto market will continue to make steady progress towards reaching 30 million vehicles in 2030 - for this, can we take a gamble with Wang Yunqing again?

Vladimir Nabokov used strong contrast in "Telling and Memory" to hint at the mutual transformation of life and death, rise and fall: "The cradle rocks above hell." Just like behind the loss, there is Contains a new round of germination factors. Why do we forget to look for the bright green shoots full of hope from the cracks in the ice, snow and frozen soil?

At the end of "Review 2019", I would like to share with you a story from the children's picture book "Afo the Field Mouse":

"Who scatters snowflakes in the sky? Who melts the ice on the ground?< /p>

Who will make the weather better?

Who will make the four-leaf clover grow in June?

Who will put out the sunshine? ? Who lights up the moon again? ”

From the early autumn of Wusong River to the cold winter of Huangpu River, "Field Mouse Afo" is the children's favorite, and their mother and I take the trouble to watch it together again and again. Reading the story of five cute voles, it teaches everyone: As long as you have collected colors in spring, sunlight in summer, and words during autumn harvest, even in the coldest and darkest winter, close your eyes and see what you see in front of you. There will also be the golden light of the sun, the colorful fields, and the flowing poetry.

The poet Rimbaud said: "As long as we have fiery patience, we will surely be able to enter that magnificent city by dawn."

So, even if the days and nights are short in the future, Long, warm, bright, and the courage to face difficulties will always be the endless force in life. < /p>

Text/Wei Jinqiao

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This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.