What do you think about experts saying that extreme high temperatures will herald the arrival of the highest temperatures? Will it now become a watershed in global high temperatures?

No, it won’t freeze three feet in a day. Climate change has its own internal factors and underlying laws. For example, this year is a strong La Ni?a, and it may be a strong El Ni?o. It goes back and forth, and there are changes but there are still laws. Only by placing temperature changes on a large time scale of several decades can we see the true trajectory of climate change. Taking a certain point in time as a watershed does not exist. Just like the change between day and night, you can't be sure what time it was before it was day and what time it was after it was night. This is a gradual process.

If the 10% drop in stratospheric water vapor content at the turn of the millennium may be related to the observed slowdown in global warming in the 2000s, then in 2022 the Tonga volcano added 10% of water to the stratosphere Vapor, what's the worst possible outcome? I cannot predict the future, but I know that when the stratosphere becomes humid, the stratosphere will cool down, but the troposphere will heat up. I recently had a bad premonition: in the next three to five years, the global climate will not rule out a period of accelerated warming. , the promoter is probably the Tonga volcano. But I have no way of judging the magnitude of this "volcanic heating". Humanity still has too little knowledge about super volcanic eruptions.

1. In the past 800,000 years, the pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide content has remained below 280 ppm, and has risen to an average of 403.3 ppm in 16 years.

This is the path chosen by humans. The past 30 years have included the golden period of globalization. Even so, both developed and developing countries have been willing to use these issues that require global cooperation to subvert each other until We will not hesitate to ruin the entire global system.

Since it is impossible for human beings to unite, then let's each find a way. ?

Rising temperatures are not just as simple as extreme heat and cold, but are also accompanied by food crises, geological disasters, various new infectious diseases brought about by animal migration

etc., but These will not appear all at once like a disaster movie, but will slowly emerge with good and bad times. This process will be slow enough for some people to continue to be immersed in the "global world" "Warming does not exist" and "the cold zone is livable" in the delusions and dreams.

In general, good times are yet to come, and you have to shoulder them all on your own.

2. Global warming is an old topic, but global warming has just begun, and this is where it ends. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in 1992, so it has been 30 years. The reason why major countries in the world got involved in this matter 30 years ago is because in the last century, humans have found more than one piece of evidence pointing to a clear trend of rising global temperature fluctuations. This trend is interpreted from a large amount of long-term data, not from the subjective feeling of which year is hot or not. ?

The higher temperatures in recent years have not significantly exceeded the so-called "warm period" in the past two thousand years, but this round of global warming will not stop at what humans have experienced in the past two thousand years. Any "warm" temperature level. Because more than one piece of data (such as average surface temperature, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration) has already shown record-breaking values ??that have not been seen in thousands or even ten thousand years. Speaking of carbon dioxide alone, the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the past 70 years has been almost 100 times that of the end of the last ice age.

3. After the Tonga volcano erupted, satellites found that the sulfur dioxide content was not high and would not cause the volcanic winter effect. But what the whole world didn't expect was that the impact of this volcano was to increase temperatures.

And unlike aerosols, which will gradually settle and the volcanic winter effect disappears, will the troposphere heat up due to the wetting of the stratosphere, which will lead to increased evaporation from the sea

? Abnormal weather? Will it affect the water vapor transport mechanism from the troposphere to the stratosphere? Will it cause the troposphere to transport more water vapor to the stratosphere, causing malignant warming?

Whether it will affect atmospheric circulation and cause more extreme weather events, I have no answers to these questions.

Maybe the answer will not be revealed until three to five years later.

I hope I will find out then that I was overthinking it. ?

I often feel that human beings are miserable. No one discusses matters of life and death, and what matters is mostly trivial matters.

Most people may think that if it rains and the mother wants to get married, it doesn’t matter. In fact, this is not the case. Failure to do so will lead to failure. Extreme weather

is not only related to Each of us is closely related to comfort, and is also closely related to economic and social development.

This drought sweeping across the northern hemisphere will be remembered as the first year of climate change in history many years from now.

If the heavy rains in my country and Europe and the drought in North America are not destructive enough, then this year’s extreme heat must attract everyone’s attention

because of its The impact is no longer just physical discomfort, but an important part of the "perfect storm" in 2022.

4. Let us review how this drought started, how it ended peacefully, and how it will affect the future? At the beginning, when the rare La Ni?a that lasted for two years receded, there were no major abnormalities in the four key indicators of global meteorological monitoring (Arctic Circle, Tibetan Plateau, tropical Indian Ocean, and tropical Pacific Ocean). The warning from the National Meteorological Center is only "dry and hot".

Since April, abnormal temperature rises have suddenly accelerated in the four places, and multiple indicators have become disordered. By now, everyone has seen the current situation. ?

Under the current situation of real-time and all-weather detection by meteorological satellites, the climate is mutating in ways that humans simply do not understand. It is difficult for us to judge

whether it is a drought or a flood.

Then, after breaking historical extreme values ??for many consecutive times, energy became a problem again.

In the past few days, the drought seems to have improved, and everyone's attention has quickly faded. However, who knows, this is just the beginning.

The reason why extreme climate is listed as the largest gray rhinoceros this year is not because of the impact it has already shown, but because of the series of dominoes caused by this dislocation.

The dominoes will soon lead to other disasters.

5. There are clues from the energy crisis. A two-month drought will worsen the situation of 5.5%. If you are engaged in tourism, logistics, consumption, or retail,

This high temperature has almost ruined the two-month golden holiday.

Of course, Europe is even more sad.

All these factors will continue to converge, as well as the epidemic, and eventually trigger a larger event. No matter how powerful the Fed is, it cannot completely control these impacts. I still insist on the judgment of the US economic crisis.

There are still 1-2 black swans left.

Don’t think that heat is just a feeling or has nothing to do with you. It is just the beginning and affects all your decisions. Everyone needs to be more sensitive

.

In such an era, the challenges far outweigh the opportunities. Don’t hold on to any unrealistic illusions that will overturn yours, even just a

rain.