Is the weather forecast really accurate?

As a young science, modern weather forecast has made great progress in the past hundred years and gained widespread trust. However, as a forecasting science, weather forecasting is limited by scientific understanding and technical means, and it is impossible to achieve the accuracy of 100%, which is far from the increasing demand of the public.

Making a weather forecast roughly includes the following steps:

Meteorological monitoring data collection (mainly collecting live data such as temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind, etc.), numerical weather forecast analysis (including weather map, cloud image and radar data), and forecast made by meteorologists (comprehensively analyzing numerical forecast products, and forecasting local weather in the next 24-48 hours in combination with the actual situation).

Weather consultation (several experts discuss the basis and results of the forecast and reach an understanding), and release the weather forecast (through radio, TV, SMS, WeChat, etc.). ).