Dry weather

Since June 10, the drought has been enlarged and aggravated. Since autumn, especially since June 10, the autumn drought in southern China has developed rapidly. According to the drought monitoring in June 5438+065438+1 October1,the arid area has expanded from northern South China and southern Jiangnan to almost the whole middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and most parts of South China, and some areas have experienced extreme drought.

Severe drought has a great impact on economic activities and people's lives. A considerable part of late rice in severe drought areas can't heading normally, and some late rice is too dry to harvest. The late growth of sugarcane was inhibited, the leaves of sugarcane turned yellow and dried up, and even the sugarcane stems shrank, hollowed out and died. At the same time, severe drought also has adverse effects on the sowing and emergence of winter wheat and rape, the growth of vegetables and the fruit development of citrus, orange and pomelo. According to the incomplete statistics of Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui and other provinces by the end of 10, the total area affected by the disaster reached 3180,000 hectares, the disaster area was 300,000 hectares, and the harvest area was 230,000 hectares. More than 22 million people were affected, and 7.32 million people had difficulty drinking water; The direct economic loss reached 4.6 billion yuan.

Continuous drought and lack of rain lead to insufficient hydropower generation, seawater intrusion, forest fires in some areas, and continuous drought and lack of rain lead to water level decline, dryness or cut-off of Kutang River. The inland navigation and tourism in Guangxi, represented by Lijiang River, have been seriously affected, and hydropower generation is seriously insufficient, and the power supply situation is still grim. Due to drought and lack of rain, the water level of the river drops, and the salty tide formed from top to bottom of seawater greatly affects the water supply in the Pearl River Delta region, especially in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Panyu District of Guangzhou in the lower reaches of the Pearl River. From June 16 to June 18, three forest fires occurred in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, causing certain losses. 101October 2 1 day, a forest fire broke out in yingde city, covering an area of over 60 hectares. From April 4th to June 5th, there were forest fires in Fujian Province 17,18 * *; In the later period, many forest fires occurred in Yongtai County, Longhai County of Zhangzhou, Cangshan District of Fuzhou and Gushan. 5438+ 10 In the middle of October, forest fires broke out in Heihe, Daxinganling and Yichun, Heilongjiang Province, causing certain losses. 65438+ 10 On June 4, a grassland Tang Wei fire broke out in Sanhe Township, Lindian County, with an area of 100 hectares.

Precipitation forecast and drought trend in the coming week

In the coming week, there will be different degrees of precipitation in western Jiangnan, western South China and Northeast China, and the drought in northern Hunan and eastern Northeast China will be alleviated. However, most of the arid areas in the south are still sunny and hot, and the drought will continue, and the drought in some areas may be further aggravated.

Forecast of precipitation trend this winter and next spring and prospect of drought in South China

The general trend of precipitation in South China this winter is that the northern part of South China is slightly more than normal, and the southern part of South China is less than normal. In the spring of 2005, the western part of South China was slightly more than normal, and the eastern part of South China was less than normal.

Due to the influence of El Nino, it is predicted that the start date of summer monsoon in South China Sea may be later than normal, and the start date of rainy season in South China will also be later than normal. Meteorological data over the years show that the winter drought frequency in South China is 30-50%. Therefore, it is predicted that the drought may last from this winter to next spring before the rainy season.