When will China lose patience with the "Sino-Indian confrontation"

The confrontation between China and India in the Donglang area has aroused the reverie of the people of the two countries about the second war between China and India. Judging from public opinion, the belligerence of the people on both sides is not low. Here, I analyze the future trend from a personal point of view.

Judging from the situation until July 20, the confrontation between the two sides continued. This time, the Indian army pushed into China, so the initiative was in India, not in China.

First of all, look at China's attitude: China has repeatedly asked India to withdraw its troops first, and frequently appeared in news such as Tibet exercises. From these aspects, at least for now, China's top leadership still doesn't want to fight. Why do you say that? Anyone who uses troops must first not let his opponent know how he will fight. Now China has made the exercise and other things that should be kept secret public, which violates the above principles. Therefore, it is confirmed that China's top leaders still hope for a peaceful solution, not a war solution. This is consistent with the core embodied in many statements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. China doesn't care to clarify this attitude now, because if we can live in peace, there will be an atmosphere of easing the situation, so China is peaceful but solemn at least at first. So the ball is on the Indian side.

As the initiative to provoke this confrontation, will India agree to withdraw its troops?

Judging from the political situation in India, Modi has carried out substantial financial reforms since he took office. Last year's waste of banknotes made India lack currency in circulation, and this year's tax reform also made businesses very dissatisfied. His style is: make a decision today, implement it immediately, without leaving enough preparation period. It can be seen that the ruling experience of this Modi government is actually very lacking. He likes big moves. Taken together, it is "exultation" in China's idiom. This kind of person in power is definitely a "big toss". Then a little military friction with the enemy is a means to divert people's attention politically. The worse he behaves at home, the more he likes to engage in friction. We should be prepared for this. When it comes to India's enemies, the first one is China, and the second one is Pakistani. Indians look at China as China looks at Japan, and always remember that you hit me. 1962 Although the Sino-Indian War was originally caused by India's invasion of China, the domestic propaganda in India has always only said that it was initiated by China, and never mentioned the occupation of China's territory. Moreover, India has defeated Pakistanis, but it has never defeated China, so this hatred has always existed. So after 1962, India has always regarded China as its first enemy. And China is basically on the defensive at the border, not shooting first. Therefore, the Sino-Indian border has been confronted for a long time, and there is no war. This is also the source of courage for India to dare to take advantage of it from time to time. Moreover, being tough on the border confrontation with China can improve the domestic support rate, so it is good to use it harmlessly. That's how it started.

With the beginning, it depends on how to end. This is related to the rules of Indian political games. India claims to be a democratic country, but in fact its democracy is populist. Populism is characterized by public opinion kidnapping high-level decision-making Under this political style, once the confrontation incident is made public, it is easy for India to March and difficult to retreat. The difficulty lies in how to find your own steps. Generally speaking, India has the following possible schemes:

1) is occupied. If the Indian side thinks that China can't do anything about them, it is entirely possible to continue. This Indian can certainly do it, because if you follow the violent law of "occupied is your own", they will always be justified. Besides, it's not the first time to do this. Of course, the price is preparation.

2) Now we will promote confrontation in a high-profile manner and test the attitude of big countries by the way. If we can attract America, Russia and Japan to reinforce us, all the benefits will be accepted. When the winter comes, the people will no longer pay attention to it, and the frontline soldiers can't stand the hardship of the station, and then make excuses, such as closing the mountain by heavy snow and retreating. Quietly, of course China loves it, and will definitely not promote it. This matter has just passed.

3) Withdraw troops in the near future. The recent confrontation is the focus of public opinion, which needs a good enough excuse. So it's unlikely.

The choice of 1 or 2 is definitely related to the determination of India's top management. If you choose 1, you have to be prepared for the battle. Whatever the outcome, India is actually better than not playing at all. This will be analyzed in detail, but the IQ of high-level Indians may not be overwhelmed by impulse. Option 2 is wiser, and you won't lose face if you get benefits.

If you really fight, there are several ways to fight. Because of the Indian invasion of China, it is estimated that China will probably take the initiative to fight this war. Then China's goal setting will affect the whole play. What is China's goal? There are several possibilities:

1) restore the Donglang area to the state before the confrontation.

If it's just Dong Lang, the two sides will only have sex at most, and will basically not touch their respective rear areas, turning the Sino-Indian border into the India-Pakistan border. 1965 The Sino-Indian border conflict was like this. Both sides will rest when they are tired of playing. Each side will say how much they killed each other. It seems that they are all out of breath, and there is a confession inside, but it is the friction level. It is estimated that it will gradually become the state before the conflict.

2) Occupy more Indian territory.

China didn't defend southern Tibet before because of the geographical situation, not because he didn't want to occupy southern Tibet, but because he couldn't defend for a long time in winter. Southern Tibet is actually in the south of the Himalayas, between Tibet and Tibet, and it is difficult to cross the Himalayas in winter. So far, this situation has not changed much. Therefore, once the postwar winter comes, China's troops in southern Tibet are almost isolated, and there is no chance of winning militarily if the technical level difference between the two sides is not too big. Therefore, China's biggest rival in the war against India is the weather on the roof of the world, not the Indian army. In order not to leave the possibility of being defeated, China's army can either defeat the Indian army in a very short time, or it can only voluntarily give up all areas where the Indian army is easy to attack and the Chinese side cannot guarantee logistics. How much is this short time? The mountain closure in the conflict area began in September-10, and it is only about 2 months now. Judging from the current diplomatic wording of both sides, it is estimated that the mountain closure has not yet begun. So it's unlikely.

But when is the right time for China to start work (or lose patience) in Donglang area? It was also after the snow closed the mountain. Donglang is located near the ridge, where snow has closed the mountain for nearly half a year. Whenever China strikes, it is difficult for Indian reinforcements, even if they can come, they are very slow. If China attacks the Indian garrison at this time, the Indian garrison will not be reinforced in time, that is, it will fight alone. So let's wait patiently for it to snow there.