Why is the weather forecast always wrong?

The deeper you love, the more you hate. The demand of the public is growing. Even a citizen who listens to and watches the weather forecast every day and uses it to guide travel, car washing and mountain climbing, if there is a thunderstorm in the local area, he does not hear or receive an accurate weather warning, or it is raining in the east and not in the west. If you just catch up, it will inevitably lead to the understanding that the weather forecast is very inaccurate, although it is also a "sometimes" situation.

The ability of human beings to understand nature is still very limited. Although the accuracy of weather forecast of 70%-80% is already very high in the forecasting industry, the public certainly wants the accuracy of 100%. Therefore, the meteorological department has a saying: the weather forecast cannot be 100% accurate, but meteorological science and technology workers will make 100% efforts!

The basic data collection process of weather forecast is called observation, but the observation network cannot be built in every corner of society, especially in plateau, ocean and remote areas. Therefore, there is a saying that "small fish are caught in the net". From the first-hand observation data, there are a large number of "fish that slip through the net".

The important means of modern weather forecast is numerical weather forecast. The process of solving numerical equations, massive observation data and the ability of supercomputers can't keep up with the development of disastrous weather. Early computers spent a week making numerical predictions. Although it was very inaccurate, the first thing they found was that the weather had long since passed. Therefore, in order to make a "more reliable" weather forecast, the theoretical research, observation network and data processing capabilities of severe weather need to be continuously improved! !