Chunjian 2205 Oriental Wealth

Last night, the 2205 contract, the main force of soda ash futures, opened slightly lower and went lower, then oscillated and rebounded, but it still surged. After the opening this morning, it went down all the way, and suddenly there was a wave of decline near the closing in the morning, and finally it hit the limit and continued until the closing in the afternoon. As of today's close, the main contract of soda ash futures, 2205, closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 8.0 1% from the previous trading day, and closed down.

1. Today, the overall trading volume of the chemical sector is weak. Since 65438+February, the fluctuation of the cost side of the chemical sector has weakened, crude oil and coal have stabilized and fluctuated, and the overall trend of the chemical sector has returned to fundamentals. After four days of continuous rise, the upward trend of oil prices has weakened, and the market is waiting for the comprehensive impact of Omicron strain on the global economy and fuel demand and the effectiveness of the current vaccine. At present, the low inventory of coal enterprises has increased the procurement demand, and the coal price in Mongolia will be further supported by the reduction of epidemic situation.

2. The supply pressure of soda ash is too high. Soda soda enterprises have less maintenance, and the start-up has risen steadily. With the early maintenance enterprises resumed production, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises has reached 82.82%, although it has decreased from last month, it is still at a high level, and the supply side still has pressure on the current soda ash spot.

3. On the demand side, the recent downstream demand is tepid, the overall performance of the demand side is weak, and the on-demand procurement is not active. The pressure of inventory has also begun to increase gradually. It is difficult to balance production and sales, the number of orders to be issued by enterprises is small, and the new orders cannot keep up, so the inventory of soda ash is under further pressure. Downstream industries are generally resistant to high-priced soda ash, but as the Spring Festival approaches, traditional pre-holiday stocking may alleviate the current high inventory.

4. At present, soda ash manufacturers are facing the pressure of tight production capacity and capital and sluggish demand, and soda ash will still rise weakly this month. Downstream glass manufacturers reduced their purchases, which led to the accumulation of soda ash inventory. In the case of high inventory, high output and high profit, the price of soda ash must be subtracted to stabilize. In the short term, under the influence of weak market atmosphere, the futures price of 2205 contract, the main force of soda ash futures, still tends to fall further to release the sentiment of empty orders. At present, only the lower annual line is expected to provide some support for the moving average, and the overall high-altitude thinking will not change much in the short term. In terms of glass futures, the main contract of glass futures, 220 1, fluctuated and fell all the way after opening slightly higher last night. It once fell more than 6% this afternoon. At the close, the main contract of glass futures 2205 closed at 18 1 1 yuan/ton, down 4.38% from the previous trading day.

5. Due to the snowfall in Northeast China, the price of glass manufacturers has been lowered, and the whole market in East China and Central China is mainly destocking. In terms of spot, as of Monday (65438+February 6), the average transaction price of Shahe Glass was 1909 yuan/ton, up 5.7% year-on-year and down 10.37% month-on-month. In the past week, the spot price of glass remained stable as a whole.