How accurate is the weather forecast ~

As the saying goes, the weather is unpredictable. However, meteorologists told reporters today that the accuracy of weather forecast in China, especially in sunny and rainy days, is above 80%, which is close to the level of developed countries.

In conjunction with the National Science and Technology Week, China Meteorological Bureau launched a large-scale publicity campaign on meteorological popular science knowledge nationwide, and opened meteorological stations for the public to visit and study. Meteorologists who participated in voluntary consultation said in an interview with reporters today that the weather forecast in China is close to the level of developed countries.

In the view of professional forecasting expert Yin Liping, weather forecasting itself is a marginal subject, and the public doesn't know much about it. At present, the level of short-term weather forecast in China should be said to be relatively high, and it is also at this level internationally. But after all, the weather changes are very complicated, and sometimes it is inevitable that there will be forecast errors. She said that as a weatherman, she and her colleagues are working hard and hope that the accuracy of weather forecast in China can be greatly improved.

Guo Xueyan, an expert in meteorological science and technology, said that weather forecast belongs to the science of diagnosis and prediction. With the development of science, technology and understanding, the accuracy of weather diagnosis and forecast is becoming more and more accurate, but it can never be completely accurate. Just like a doctor, he used to only rely on pulse detection, but now technology is developed. With scientific and technological instruments such as CT and B-ultrasound, the accuracy has been greatly improved, but there will still be inaccuracies. The weather forecast is more uncertain than the doctor's diagnosis, it should be said that it is more complicated: not only to judge the current weather, but also to predict the future weather.

According to several meteorologists who participated in on-site voluntary consultation, developed countries are more advanced than us in weather detection and diagnosis, mainly due to comprehensive reasons such as scientific and technological strength, financial resources and material resources. However, in terms of forecast, the weather forecast in China is not much worse than that in developed countries, and the forecast accuracy rate is over 80%. In addition to the strengthening of national investment and scientific research, the strong sense of responsibility of the staff also played a great role.

Experts say that the responsibility of meteorologists plays a very important role in the accuracy of forecasting. It is also a data, and a weather result can be predicted simply by judging this data; However, a strong sense of responsibility forecaster will contact the data for a period of time, including some peripheral derivative data, and conduct analysis and research, and the final conclusion will of course be much more accurate.