Can goats that predict volcanic eruptions really be studied successfully?

Using goats to predict volcanic eruption depends on the instinct of animals themselves, and it is better to match animals with modern scientific and technological products. The accuracy will be higher.

Fortunately, scientists have been studying ways to predict volcanic eruptions. Although volcanic eruptions may cause damage and destruction-even if some are not fatal-scientists still can't accurately predict them. Even though scientists have successfully predicted several volcanic eruptions, they still lack a standard prediction method. "As far as forecasting is concerned, the research in the field of volcanology lags far behind that in the field of meteorology." David Pyle, a volcanologist at Oxford University in England, said.

Volcanic activity is complex and unpredictable. Of course, most volcanic activities occur underground, which makes it much more difficult to study and predict them than weather systems. Pyle said: "The real challenge now is that it is difficult for us to predict what will happen next for those volcanoes that we have not observed erupting and those that we are not paying close attention to now." He added that the methods used by scientists to predict volcanic eruptions today are "qualitative". A research team from the University of Savoie in France is trying to establish a more reliable, accurate and data-driven method, which uses satellite and data assimilation technology to predict eruption activities such as Eyjafjallajokull volcano, and may also create daily or even hourly volcano predictions.

Data assimilation technology is widely used in meteorology and other fields, and our weather forecast depends on this technology. It combines system models (such as weather or climate) with real data points to predict the future. The advantage of this technology is that the model can be constantly adjusted-it compares the prediction results with real-world data and calibrates itself in real time.