Extreme cold weather 20 18

Extreme weather events are frequent this year, and frequent extreme weather events are still the norm.

On February/February/2002 13- 17, the winter storm "Yuri" hit most parts of North America, which made 75% of the land in the United States covered with snow, and more than 5.5 million households lost power.

This is no accident. In the context of global warming, extreme low temperature events have occurred from time to time in recent years. 20 14 year minimum temperature in new york, USA 1 18. Jonas, 20 16 American strong winter storm; 20 16 extreme cold current in Korea; From June 2065438 to June 2008, the impact of explosive cyclones on the east coast of the United States broke the lowest record in the past 100 years. At the beginning of March of the same year, an extreme cold current swept through Europe; From 2065438 to February 2009, the lowest temperature in Kazakhstan fell below -40℃.

In the Far Eastern Hemisphere, China is no exception. In 2008, there was a once-in-a-century low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather; In the extreme cold weather in late October of 20 16, 16 10, the area where the temperature dropped above 6℃ reached 7.86 million square kilometers, and the daily minimum temperature in 67 counties and cities exceeded the historical extreme value.

1October 7th, 202 1, 65438 was affected by cold weather, and the demand for electricity increased rapidly. The maximum load in the state grid management area reached 960 million kilowatts, and the daily electricity consumption reached 20 1.9 1 100 million kwh, both hitting record highs. Large-scale extreme cold events have brought great challenges to transportation, agriculture and energy.

"Global warming makes the climate more unstable, and extreme cold and warm events occur frequently and increase in intensity or have become the norm." Zhou Bing, researcher and chief meteorological service officer of the National Climate Center, stressed that especially large-scale extreme weather events have brought serious impacts on life and production, so we must attach great importance to and strengthen prevention and response.

Probability of extreme weather

From the perspective of probability theory, if the temperature in a certain area or place is normally distributed under the average condition for many years, the probability of weather is the highest, the probability of hot and cold weather is small, and the probability of extremely cold or hot weather is even smaller.

However, due to the influence of global warming, the average temperature in this area will rise, the probability of high temperature weather will increase obviously, the rare extreme high temperature weather may also appear frequently, and extreme events such as high temperature heat waves will become frequent; If the variance of temperature changes increases, extreme weather will occur more frequently.