What progress has been made in the weather forecast?

People who try to predict the weather are doing thankless work. There are few scientific forecasts that are not laughed at, because once the weather forecast is wrong, its embarrassment can be imagined. However, although many people complain about their mistakes, people still watch the news to find out whether they should take an umbrella when they go out in the morning.

Modern weather forecast is based on the theory created by scientists from the end of 16 to the end of 18. Observers like isaac newton and robert boyle have come up with the basic theory that air expands with heat and contracts with cold, as well as the related theories about the conservation of matter and energy, and the force generated when the atmosphere moves. Other observers are concerned about the reality of observing the weather day after day. /kloc-the observation network that appeared in the 0/9th century, with the speed of telegraph, enables meteorological observers to cross the mid-latitude area and move eastward to find out the high-pressure area and the low-pressure area.

In the19th century, the weatherman tried to predict the weather with the so-called persistence method. They think that the speed and direction of storm movement are usually continuous. Many skeptics thought the weather forecast was unreliable, but it became more and more popular, and soon the National Weather Service was established. By 1900, maps and weather forecasts were published in American and European newspapers.

After World War I, the revolutionary method of observing weather rose from Norway, which was accompanied by the formation of the concept of frontal system and the understanding of the life history of low-pressure system. These ideas point out the direction for more complex weather forecast, which goes beyond climatology and persistence theory.

1922, the British mathematician Richardson imagined that thousands of people used mathematical addition and subtraction to solve the equation of motion and used mathematical methods to predict the weather. Their ideas were recognized by Princeton University. 1950, the university first developed the computer weather forecast. According to the existing standards, it was too rough at that time, but they laid the foundation for the follow-up work. At present, a relatively perfect computer in the world uses mathematical models to control atmospheric substances and provide guidance for local meteorological service personnel. This kind of computer obtains the observation results from all over the world twice a day, and the obtained data are transformed into useful forms through computer models. These models simulate the atmosphere, but they vary from country to country. They mark an area, a continent, a hemisphere or even the whole earth with a three-dimensional frame to track the wind, humidity, air pressure and temperature there. Many major forecasting centers use one or two short-term models, one of which lasts 48 hours and the other lasts 10 days.