Why can typhoons turn around and predict?

Typhoon turning is actually a natural phenomenon, which can be accurately calculated by big data. Since the direction of the typhoon can be predicted, so can the "turning" direction of the typhoon, because both are basic forms of movement.

1. What is a typhoon?

Second, the principle of typhoon forecast

Third, what is a "turning point" typhoon?

1. What is a typhoon?

What we usually call a typhoon is a tropical cyclone. The so-called tropical cyclone refers to a low-pressure vortex that rotates rapidly on the surface of tropical or subtropical oceans, often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges.

According to the maximum average wind power near the center, the World Meteorological Organization divides tropical cyclones into four grades: tropical depression with wind power of 6-7, tropical storm with wind power of 8-9, and strong tropical storm with wind power of10-1,12, 18. The maximum wind speed near the typhoon center is above 32.6 m/s.

Second, the principle of typhoon forecast

Whenever a typhoon is generated on the ocean surface, the forecaster must first know its exact location and actual intensity. Using the analysis software, the forecaster can complete the processing and analysis of satellite images in less than one minute, and give a reasonable typhoon position and intensity. But the prediction at this time is a rough route and not accurate.

As the typhoon approaches the land, people's observation methods are constantly enriched. Automatic weather stations, marine weather buoy stations, ship-borne automatic weather stations and coastal weather radars erected on islands and oil platforms will obtain meteorological elements such as typhoon-related wind speed and pressure in real time.

In addition, in order to truly predict its trend, we must also master its development law. First of all, facing the convective clouds around the equator, which one can develop into a real typhoon? To solve this problem, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the influence of various physical quantities in the ambient atmosphere and determine the threshold of each physical factor. I won't talk about those professional knowledge here. As long as you know a little, big data can be used to calculate the general moving direction of typhoon, and its moving state can be basically determined with the increase of data information in the later stage. This is just like how many experience values can trigger the plot when doing tasks in the game. Then, the forecaster should establish a mathematical formula according to the relationship between these factors-that is, calculate the probability of wind generation through modeling, which is the typhoon generation probability prediction technology.

It is important to understand that the movement of typhoon can be roughly grasped through the calculation of data.

Third, what is a "turning point" typhoon?

In fact, typhoon turning is actually a sudden movement direction in the normal movement track. In fact, this kind of trajectory change also belongs to the category of data calculation. It's like a close contact of mahjong. You beat me. You think you won, but in fact, your behavior of hitting me is also in my calculation. The accurate calculation of the data can be standardized to its specific direction, including the so-called "turning" direction of the typhoon. In the case of uncertain data, then the experimenter will give a general conclusion. For example, the path of typhoon may change, but it may not, so observers will directly give the general path of typhoon and prepare for the change of typhoon in advance. When the direction of the typhoon really changes, it is actually within the observer's budget.

Write to the end:

① Typhoon forecast is a technology. Through the big data algorithm, we can grasp its energy, route and all possible moving directions.

② Typhoon turning is actually a normal moving situation, and the moving route can be calculated by algorithm, and "turning" is also in the route.