Is there a relationship between big welding and big earthquake?

Frequent earthquake disasters have made many people "talk about it". Some time ago, some netizens claimed that so-called "earthquake clouds" were found over Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and other places, and even the photos taken were uploaded to the Internet, causing panic among netizens. There has long been a view that drought is one of the precursors of earthquakes.

Is there a relationship between drought and earthquake?

Climate anomalies predict earthquakes?

"There are many reasons for climate anomalies, and earthquake preparation is one of the possible reasons. But there is no conclusive evidence to prove that there is an inevitable connection between earthquakes and climate anomalies. " Zhang Yongxian, deputy director of the Earthquake Prediction Department of China Seismological Network Center, said that some scholars have explored the use of drought and climate anomalies to predict earthquakes, and the rate of missing reports is high, so it is difficult to use them for pre-earthquake prediction.

Some seismologists have studied the relationship between rainfall and earthquakes. Through the analysis of the precipitation data of China in 1957 ~ 197 1 year, it is concluded that the epicenter was often an arid area within 1 ~ 3 years before the China earthquake. For example, the year before Xingtai earthquake/KOOC-0/966, Bohai earthquake/KOOC-0/969, Tonghai earthquake/KOOC-0/970 and Luhuo earthquake/KOOC-0/973, drought occurred in the surrounding areas. But some originally belonged to arid areas, and floods occurred one or two years before the earthquake.

Regarding the relationship between drought and earthquake, Zhang Yongxian said that the relationship between drought and earthquake has a certain physical mechanism. Due to the accumulation of stress, many geological micro-cracks may be caused; The growth of cracks will make the deep underground fluid rise and spread. This process will lead to local warming and eventually lead to climate anomalies such as drought.

Min Jinzhong, a professor at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, said that there is no clear scientific basis to prove that earthquakes are related to climate anomalies, and there are many factors that affect climate. Even the same climate phenomenon is mostly caused by different factors. Therefore, it is unfounded to say that a particular climate phenomenon has something to do with earthquakes. If there is a climate anomaly, it cannot be said that there will be an earthquake in the future, and the climate anomaly is not necessarily caused by a major earthquake.

He believes that there may be many special phenomena before the earthquake, and there may be many influences after the earthquake. However, as far as the forefront of world science is concerned, there is no clear relationship between climate anomalies before earthquakes and earthquakes, and whether climate anomalies will induce earthquakes is worthy of further study. But what is certain is that the current climate anomaly cannot be used as the basis for earthquake prediction.

However, there is a close relationship between seismic activity and climate change. In this regard, Zongjin Ma, an academician of China Academy of Sciences, wrote the book Progress of Comprehensive Research on Natural Disasters in China, which clearly pointed out that when the climate changes from warm to cold or from cold to warm, seismic activity is the most frequent, that is, the period of seismic activity in China in recent 500 years is mostly equivalent to the low temperature period. For example, earthquakes in eastern North China mostly occur in the cold period. However, there are also some earthquakes, such as the Sanhe earthquake in Hebei Province 1679 and the Pinggu earthquake in Beijing, and the Heze earthquake in Shandong Province 1973, which were extremely hot before the earthquake. 1966, within 7 days before Xingtai earthquake, the average temperature rose sharply from-13℃ to 1 1℃.

There is a view that there will be abnormal weather after a strong earthquake, such as floods and heavy rains. Will the earthquake affect the weather and climate, or will it lead to abnormal weather and climate?

Just look at the word "earthquake" and you will find it is "rain". From this point of view, our ancestors seem to have associated "earthquake" with "rainfall" when they created and developed the word.

Min Jinzhong said that weather changes are mainly related to the weather system, but special weather phenomena are often caused by local environmental factors. He believes that there is no scientific basis for the statement that the earthquake caused abnormal weather. Earthquakes only change the altitude and local water vapor evaporation, just as weather and climate changes are not enough to cause earthquakes, earthquakes are not enough to change the atmospheric circulation.

However, some studies show that after the earthquake, the underground energy that caused the earthquake will have an impact on precipitation in the short term after the earthquake. After the earthquake, a large number of landslides and house collapses will increase a lot of dust and particles in the air, which are the best condensation nuclei of water droplets. The huge shock wave of the earthquake, while shaking the earth, constantly releases energy into the air, and also strongly disturbs the air above the earthquake zone, causing a large number of condensation nuclei and water vapor molecules to collide and fully combine over the earthquake zone, which is a rainstorm after the earthquake.

Xu Jianmin, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, believes that to prove the internal relationship between weather and earthquakes, there must be sufficient facts to prove the existence of the internal relationship between them; Secondly, it is necessary to find a reasonable physical theory to prove the relationship between them and that they are indeed physically related. Only by meeting these two conditions can we prove that there is indeed a correlation between weather and earthquakes. But so far, apart from post-event analysis, there is no real evidence that earthquakes can be predicted by satellite cloud images. Therefore, in order to demonstrate the relationship between weather and earthquakes, we need to conduct in-depth research on it. We can't draw a conclusion easily until we have sufficient evidence and can find a suitable demonstration of physical principles.

"La Nina" phenomenon induced earthquake?

A research team established by scientists from Australia, France and Germany recently published a research report in the journal Archives of Earth and Planetary Science, saying that climate change may lead to the movement of the earth's plates, which in turn will lead to earthquakes.

For example, the Indian Ocean monsoon, which blew for 6.5438+million years, accelerated the activity of the Indian Ocean plate by about 20% and moved by about 654.38+0 cm every year. In other words, the long-term climate change or natural change of climate pattern in the past million years will modify the motion of the plate in the feedback mechanism. From this perspective, climate change may be one of the causes of earthquakes-when the boundary of plate movement driven by climate change reaches a critical value, earthquakes will occur.

Then, are the active periods of the Japan earthquake and the Pacific Rim seismic belt related to atmospheric circulation, ocean circulation and recent climate anomalies?

Min Jinzhong said that since last autumn, it has been the active period of La Nina. The SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific is low, while the SST in the western Pacific is high. The warm water on the ocean surface blows to the western Pacific Ocean, causing the sea surface in the western Pacific Ocean to be about 40 centimeters higher than normal. A large amount of seawater accumulates in the western Pacific Ocean. With the ocean circulation, seawater will exert invisible pressure on the crust, and the increase of this pressure may induce earthquakes in the Pacific Rim seismic belt.

"However, we can only say that La Nina is one of the unstable factors that induce earthquakes." For example, Min Jinzhong said, "Just like two scales, they are originally balanced, and a hair may cause an instant tilt. By the same token, the earth contains enormous energy. When the critical state of earthquake is reached, the climatic conditions may induce the occurrence of earthquake. The warm water accumulated in the western Pacific increased the Kuroshio flow near Japan, but because of its slow speed, it has not yet reached Japan, so this' La Nina' did not play a decisive role in the earthquake in Japan. "

Zhang Yongxian said that the relationship between "La Nina" and the earthquake has not yet reached a recognized result. In March this year 1 1, Japan suffered the largest earthquake since the 20th century and the fourth largest earthquake in the world, but there was a strong "La Ni" from 1988 to 1989, 1998 to 200 1.

Some studies believe that

Atmospheric electron concentration can warn earthquakes.

Although there is no basis for climate anomalies to predict earthquakes, some scientists believe that we can still find clues to earthquakes by studying the atmospheric changes before earthquakes.

It is not a new idea to predict earthquakes by observing atmospheric changes. This theory is called "seismic lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling mechanism" in scientific circles. Its principle is that before the earthquake, the compression fault will release more gas, especially colorless and odorless radon. After entering the upper atmosphere, radon gas will strip electrons from air molecules and decompose them into negatively charged particles (free electrons) and positively charged particles. These charged particles, called ions, attach to condensed water droplets and release heat. Scientists can find heat released in the form of infrared radiation.

According to the American Life Science Network, Dimita O 'Zonov, a professor of earth science at Chapman University in California, and his colleagues used satellite data to discover the changes in the atmosphere a few days before the Japanese earthquake. They found that the electron concentration and infrared radiation in the ionosphere increased a few days before the earthquake. March 8, three days before the earthquake in Japan, was the most abnormal day. O 'Zonov said that the researchers analyzed the data of more than 100 earthquakes in Asia and Taiwan Province Province, and found that earthquakes with magnitude over 5.5 and focal depth less than 50 kilometers had such a connection.

Nevertheless, no one can guarantee that this kind of research will eventually succeed in predicting earthquakes, and no one has successfully predicted earthquakes by using atmospheric data. (Gao Lin)