What's the temperature in Suiling today?

# Corn price trend # In the blink of an eye, the market of agricultural products suddenly changed in the middle of 1 1. After the "four consecutive rises" in pig prices, pig prices in several provinces fell; The egg market is gloomy, and the whole line is down again; Corn, wheat and other grain markets also have high early warning and risk accumulation; Good news came from the oil price, which only rose by 1 yuan.

What about the pig, egg and grain markets? Today, let's pay attention to:

First, the pig price "changed face"

Recently, the pace of pig price changes has accelerated, and the pig price has just risen for four days. The national average pig price has risen from the low point 1 1.90 yuan to the current 12.34 yuan/kg, but there are obvious differences in the market, and the continuous increase has ended.

Although there are 1 1 provinces in southwest China, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian and so on. , there are 12 provinces and cities such as Northeast China, North China and East China. The market is in a state of differentiation of "rising south and falling north".

Among them, the increase: the price of live pigs in Yunnan Province increased by 4 cents per catty, 12.0- 12.2 yuan/catty; Guangdong rose by 4 cents, 12.3- 12.9 yuan/kg; Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou provinces and cities rose by 20%, and the mainstream quotation was 12.5- 13. 1 yuan/kg; Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi and other places rose by 1-2 gross.

Decline: Jiangsu fell by 3 hairs, 12.4- 12.7 yuan/kg; Anhui fell 20 points, 12.3- 12.6 yuan/kg; Other declining provinces decreased by 1 gross. See the attached table for specific quotation:

Because the change of pork lags behind the change of pig price, the decline of pig price is being transmitted to the price of meat some time ago, and the price of pork has also fallen to a certain extent. According to enthusiastic netizens, the current pork price ratio in some areas has dropped by about 3% in 4 yuan, and the current mainstream retail price in the market is 19-23 yuan/kg. At present, the front leg meat of Suiling in Heilongjiang is 265438+.

The latest monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market is 33.30 yuan/kg, down1.0% from last Friday; The monitored beef also decreased to 77.83 yuan/kg, down 0.1%compared with last Friday; Mutton is 67.80 yuan/kg, up 0.6% from last Friday.

It is expected that the pig price will fluctuate, because the positive and negative factors of the current pig market are intertwined, the seasonal consumption season and the relatively loose supply are "hedged", and the factors such as rain and snow in the north and speculative capital are superimposed, resulting in the development situation that the pig price is "difficult to rise and more difficult to fall".

Regarding the market outlook, I personally think that the pig price fluctuated strongly before the Spring Festival, and it is more likely to enter the pig price 14 yuan. After the Spring Festival, the market weakened and fell back to the reasonable price range of 10- 12 yuan.

As for the logic: during the period before the Spring Festival, the seasonal consumption peak season in winter is superimposed with the peak consumption of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and consumption will dominate, and pig prices are prone to ups and downs.

After the Spring Festival, pork consumption has gradually entered the off-season, and this year's production expansion is relatively large. After the second quarter of next year, the number of live pigs will be higher than that in normal years, and the decline in pig prices will be inevitable.

Second, the price of eggs has fallen.

Since June 65438+ 10, the egg market has shown a downward trend. Entering June 165438+ 10, there was a rebound, but the duration was short and the rebound space was limited. Recently, there has been a downward trend across the board.

The latest egg price shows that the price of eggs in the main producing areas in China has fallen across the board, and the average price has dropped to 5.44 yuan/kg.

From the local situation: the price of eggs in Beijing has dropped to 5 yuan, 247 yuan /44 kg; The price of eggs in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other places in Guangdong fell by 0.05 yuan and 6.2 yuan/kg; Dongguan fell 0.05 points, 6. 10 yuan/kg;

Shandong Qingdao Egg Alliance fell 0. 1 yuan, 5.7 yuan/kg; Heze, Liaocheng, Binzhou, Jinan, Jining and other places generally fell in 3 yuan, 162 yuan /30 kg; 3 yuan generally fell in parts of Huai 'an, Suqian and Xuzhou in Jiangsu, 165 yuan /30 kg;

Zhangjiakou, Chengde and other places in Hebei fell to 5 yuan, 242 yuan /45 kg; Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Handan and other places fell in 5 yuan, 24 1 yuan /45 kg; Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Cangzhou and Nanyang also fell;

Zhengzhou, Henan Province fell by 0. 1 yuan, 5.5 yuan/kg; Shangqiu, Luohe and other places fell 0. 1 yuan, 5.45 yuan/kg; Kaifeng fell by 0. 13 yuan, 5.47 yuan/kg; Pingdingshan, Zhumadian, Sanmenxia and other places fell by 0. 15 yuan, 5.45 yuan/kg.

Chengdu, Sichuan fell 0. 1 yuan, 6. 1 yuan/Jin; Shanxi Jincheng, Linfen and other places 1 gross, 5.65 yuan/kg; Jinzhong and Lvliang fell by 0. 1 yuan and 5.6 yuan/kg.

Gansu, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang and other regions also experienced a decline of 0.05-0. 10 yuan.

Egg prices have fallen, and the mainstream view in the market is:

First, the price of eggs in the northern region fell, mainly due to the recent rain and snow weather. Eggs are difficult to transport outside the place of origin and cannot be digested locally, which leads to farmers' price reduction and promotion.

Second, affected by the sharp increase in egg prices in the second half of the year, farmers are enthusiastic about breeding and actively fill the column, resulting in an increase in the number of newly developed laying hens and an increase in production capacity, which puts pressure on egg prices.

Third, after the National Day, egg consumption gradually entered the traditional off-season, and the high price of eggs led to a significant decline in egg consumption, which also adversely affected egg prices.

For the market outlook of eggs, my personal view is cautious. It is expected that there will be no big market for eggs for at least half a year.

Because: First, the number of laying hens is slightly higher at present, which is not conducive to the increase in egg prices. By the end of 10, the number of laying hens in China was11480,000, up 0.9% from the previous month.

Second, from now until the Spring Festival, although there is a large consumer support, according to the usual practice, the increase in egg consumption is limited, and the support for egg prices is not strong.

So the next egg market is likely to be a weak market. The return of eggs to 5 yuan does not even rule out that the extreme price will drop to "prefix 4".

Third, the grain market "suddenly increased risk"

After the recent rise, the prices of wheat and corn have risen to a new height. At present, the mainstream price of wheat is between 1.60- 1.65 yuan/kg, and some market participants expect to see the wheat price of 1.7 yuan/kg this year. The corn market has been going on. At present, the corn prices of Mo Lifeng Agriculture in Zhucheng, Xuan Ying Industry in Weifang, Lemon Biochemical, Huayi Ronghai and Qixing Lemon have exceeded 1.5 yuan/kg, among which Weifang Lemon Biochemical has reached 1.565 yuan/kg.

The price of corn in North China also rose to 1.43- 1.46 yuan/kg, and the price of corn in three northeastern provinces and one district was 1.30- 1.4 1 yuan/kg.

However, the risks in the current corn market are also gathering. Although many enterprises rose, the market declined: Huaxing Bio in Mengzhou, Henan Province fell 1 point, 1.490 yuan/kg; Alcohol in Han Yong, Mengzhou fell by 0.5 points, 1.495 yuan/kg; The biomass of Luzhou in Linyi, Shandong Province fell by 0.5 point, 1.490 yuan/kg; Taian Xiangrui Pharmaceutical fell 0.5 point to 1.44 yuan/kg.

Rising enterprises: Runda in Wan Li, Baoqing, Heilongjiang rose 1 point, 30 tidal grains 1.03 yuan/kg; Fujin Yu Xiang rose 1 point, 1.035 yuan/kg; Plum blossoms in Baicheng, Jilin rose 1.5 points, 1.365 yuan/kg; Jilin fuel ethanol rose by 2.5 points, 1.380 yuan/kg; Kailu Wang Yu in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia rose by 0.5 points, 1.345 yuan/kg; Shandong Zaozhuang Hengren Industry and Trade rose 3 points, 1.480 yuan/kg.

At present, the corn market is more and more risky with the rising price.

Personally, the corn market may be under some pressure in the short term. In the short term, some enterprises raise prices to collect grain, mostly because of the recent rainy and snowy weather in the northern region and the difficulty in transporting corn, which led to the decrease in the number of vehicles arriving in front of some enterprises. In addition, the recent purchase price of grain in some areas is higher, which has a certain boost to the market.

However, regarding the market outlook, I personally think it should be rational. There are some risks in corn in the short term. The main logic is:

First, affected by the bumper harvest of grain last year, many grain merchants didn't make any money at all, which led some traders to be cautious and wait-and-see and not dare to open a large number of acquisitions.

Second, at present, after all, it is at the peak of corn listing. After the freezing weather, the amount of corn on the market increased, which put some pressure on the price of corn.

Third, the current corn price is not bad, it has reached the psychological price of some farmers, and the willingness to sell is increasing.

Fourth, it will enter 65438+February in two weeks, which is the time node for repayment in a year. Some farmers will also accelerate grain storage due to financial factors such as repayment of loans and year-end consumption.

Judging from these circumstances, there may be room for a slight increase in corn prices, but the space should be limited.

However, there is no need to be pessimistic. There will be a good market in the corn market in the first half of next year. However, in the second half of next year, under the influence of high corn planting efficiency, the sown area is expected to increase next year, so the market decline in the second half of next year, especially in the fourth quarter, will be inevitable.

4. Will oil prices "fall"?

When the time node of the next oil price adjustment is 165438+ 10/24: 00 on the day, according to the statistical period of 10 working days, the current statistical data will increase cumulatively by 1 1 yuan/ton, and the crude oil will change. Overall, it is estimated that the oil price will increase by 1 yuan/ton, which will not exceed the adjustment range of 50 yuan.

However, some insiders predict that due to the impact of the strong US dollar and the green light given by the United States for India to buy Russia and increase international supply, it is expected that oil prices will fall in the near future, and the probability of the next round of oil price reduction still exists.

Dear friends, have the prices of pork, eggs, beef and mutton dropped there? How much is a catty? Welcome to share it with the majority of netizens for the reference of netizens all over the country.