Read slow variables and small trends in variables.

Luo Pang's New Year speech exclusively launched teacher He Fan's new book Variable. As always, I will buy two books, one for myself and one for my lover. This habit began on 20 17. I want to use this way, so that mutual understanding can always have the possibility of cross-progress.

Before the publication of Variables, I had subscribed to the He Fan Report that He Fan got. Teacher He Fan's ambition is to record the 30-year changes in China and write a 30-volume history of China's development. I was deeply touched by this at that time.

Perhaps Variables is the fastest book I have read recently, and many viewpoints and methodologies mentioned in it are worth reading several times carefully before practicing. In the first article, I will understand two concepts put forward by the teacher from my own point of view:

What is a slow variable and what is a small trend?

Facing the course of the next 30 years, we have stood in a water area without nautical charts, and a series of possible changes may be beyond our existing cognition. We cannot use today's certainty to predict the uncertainty in the next 30 years. After decades of rapid development, China has caught up with or surpassed developed countries in some fields. In just a few decades, we have gone through the history that others have gone through for hundreds of years and stood in front of the stage. There is no reference answer to the problem we are facing, and the answer can only be found by ourselves.

Writing the ins and outs of historical events step by step and letting history flow like a long river is the "long river model" for writing history.

Teacher He Fan said:

A tree has roots, trunks, branches and leaves. Some people can see a whole tree, some people can see roots, trunks, branches or leaves, and some people can judge the external environment of a tree and whether the ecology of a forest is intact according to the falling leaves.

We should learn to observe a tree from different angles. Wide angle, microscope angle, from top to bottom or from bottom to top, etc.

The tree model is multidimensional. By observing the buds and new branches, it is helpful for us to observe the vitality of our mother by constantly pulling our eyes back to her.

We all find that times are changing so fast that we can't seize one opportunity after another and feel like a piece of cotton in the air, unable to keep up with a certain direction. We can't find our exact position in this era, and where it is is everyone's problem.

Teacher He Fan said that we need a sense of history.

As the familiar oil seller said:

People with a sense of history can find a point from the ever-changing torrent of information, make a judgment commensurate with the times, catch the train of the times, roll forward with the wheels of the times, and reach a distant place.

Today's weather forecast says there will be a typhoon and huge waves at sea, but we won't know why as long as we look at the weather forecast. Tidal phenomena caused by the tidal force of the moon and the sun led to the above weather forecast. The weather forecast is a fast variable, while the moon and the sun are slow variables.

Now we know that it was a rapid variable for ancient humans to leave Africa more than 60,000 years ago, but before that, they needed to invent clothes to ensure enough energy consumption, master the technology of building houses, use weapons to protect themselves and their companions (sometimes killing them), and evolve languages. Only with these slow variables can we support mankind to get out of Africa.

This is the power of slow variables.

In the book, Teacher He Fan mentioned the three most important driving forces of China's economic development in the past 30 years:

American futurist Mark J Payne defines it as:

The small trend is the change of 1% population.

From He Fan's research, there are two reasons to pay attention to small trends:

This truth is similar to the pre-requirement and dependence on technology mentioned by teacher Wu Jun in Sixty Lectures on the History of Science and Technology.

For example, making the furnace temperature reach 1300 degrees is a prerequisite for firing porcelain, while porcelain is a subordinate technology that depends on the furnace temperature.

We can see that any new capital is relative without a new theory.

In life, it is very easy to see the existence of this small trend. Happy tea, which became popular on 20 17, may be the completely unremarkable local snacks around us. Internet platform is a big trend, and self-media is a small trend. Many things we are enjoying are actually those small trends, but we didn't use a word to classify them before, just think it's fashion.

Variables will introduce five variables:

Recommend reading together.