Suddenly! Nearly 200 billion yuan once dived in a straight line. What happened? Big finance and real estate broke out collectively.

Financial real estate stabilized and rebounded in July 18 under the expectation of the policy of "ensuring property delivery, people's livelihood and stability" issued over the weekend.

By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.49%, the Shenzhen Composite Index was up1.65,438+02% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index was up 1.83%. On the disk, environmental protection, water, coal, real estate, electricity and other sectors were among the top gainers, while photovoltaic inverters, new towns, oil and gas exploration and other concept stocks were active, while mineral products, aviation, hotel catering and other sectors were among the top losers. More than 4 100 stocks in the two cities rose.

Old and new energy sources are mixed.

Although the performance of lithium mining companies increased significantly in the first half of the year, industry stocks have continued to climb since April, which is a bit "unattainable". In July 18, the lithium mine plate dived collectively, and the Wind lithium mine index once fell by 2.75% in early trading. Rongjie once fell more than 5%, Tianqi Lithium once fell more than 6%, and China Mining Resources, Shengxin Lithium Energy and Yongxing Materials fell to the limit.

Benefiting from the strong demand for new energy, lithium mining enterprises achieved excellent results in the first half of the year. Up to now, there have been 13 lithium mine listed companies that have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, all of which have increased substantially, reflecting the high prosperity of the lithium industry. Tianqi Lithium, which just completed the listing of A+H shares, saw a large increase in net profit in the first half of 2022, exceeding the market expectation by 1 10 times.

At the same time, listed companies in lithium mines have accelerated the reserve and expansion of upstream lithium resources. Everbright Securities said that the lithium industry is still in a tight supply state in 2022-2023, and it is not ruled out that the price of lithium will return to more than 500,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2022.

But the market doesn't buy it. Take Tianqi lithium industry as an example. A shares have fallen by nearly 20% since last week. On July 14, Tianqi Lithium Industry continued to decline. As of noon, A shares fell by 2.62% and H shares fell by 2.33%. On July 10, Ying Ying released the Weekly Market Review on his official WeChat account, which mentioned that "Tianqi Lithium Battery Davis double-clicked has reached its peak and the price is overvalued." Some institutions also give cautious advice. Guoyuan International pointed out that in view of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the price of lithium mine is likely to be at a high level in the foreseeable future, and the specific price trend depends on the relative changes in the expansion speed of new energy vehicles seepage velocity and lithium mine. Therefore, traditional energy sources have been strengthened again. On July 18, coal stocks rose collectively, with Shenwan coal index rising by 3.89%, Huayang shares trading daily, and yongtai energy and Judah energy rising by more than 7%. Recently, hot weather has spread rapidly in Jiangnan and South China. Large-scale high temperature brings high demand for coal and electricity, which accelerates the inventory consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces and reduces the available days of coal storage to less than 13 days. Especially in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the available days of coal storage are short, and the pressure of peak summer is high.

Guo Sheng Securities pointed out that demand is the core contradiction of the current coal price, the domestic load is increasing rapidly, and the coal supply and transportation capacity in the superimposed origin market are increasingly tight, which supports the strong operation of coal prices. Considering that the high profits of coal enterprises are expected to last for a long time, the dividend ratio will continue to increase under the background of high cash flow, and the coal sector is welcoming Davis double-click of performance and valuation. Recommend Huayang, the pioneer of coal transformation. Adhere to the core assets, optimistic about the valuation of coal enterprises with high proportion of long-term associations and high dividends.

A huge financial rebound

Stimulated by this news, on July 18, the Wind Bank Index rebounded sharply and rose sharply at noon. Shenwan Bank Index rose 1.28%. A shares, Jiangsu Bank rose 4.7%, China Merchants Bank rose more than 2%, China Ping An, China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance and other insurance stocks have made efforts. The commercial banks of Hong Kong stocks rose, with Postal Savings Bank rising by nearly 4%, China Merchants Bank rising by over 3%, Standard Chartered Group rising by nearly 3%, and China Construction Bank, HSBC Holdings and Bank of China rising by over 2%.

In addition to policy support, the net profit growth rate of many banks in the first half of the year exceeded 20%, and their performance grew steadily. As of July 17, six listed banks, including Nanjing Bank, Sunong Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, Wuxi Bank and Suzhou Bank, have released their semi-annual performance reports for 2022. In the first half of this year, the revenues of the six banks all maintained growth, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit was above 20%, and the asset quality continued to improve.

At the same time that regulators and local government departments have expressed their opinions, up to now, 17 banks, including six major banks, have responded to the "loan suspension" incident and explained their doubts to the market. Among them, while most banks disclose the overdue amount of mortgage loans involved in loan suspension, they all indicate that the risks are controllable.

Real estate stability

As banks stabilized, real estate also showed signs of bottoming out. On July 18, Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 2.83%, while guangyu development, Blu-ray Development, Shunfa Hengye and Sunshine City went up by daily limit, while Rong Shi Zhao Ye rose by more than 8%, while Rong Sheng Development, Dalong Real Estate, Jinke, Binjiang Group, Huayuan Real Estate, Sunshine and Zhongnan Construction rose successively.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, domestic real estate stocks, which had been falling continuously before, collectively rebounded, with the development of new towns increasing by over 9%, R&F Real Estate, Hejing Taifu and Xuhui Holdings all increasing by over 6%, and Longhu Group, Country Garden and Agile Group all increasing by over 4%.

On the policy side, on July 17, the CBRC pointed out in an interview that it should adhere to the principles of "staying in houses without speculation", "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations" and support local governments to make greater efforts to promote the work of "ensuring the property market, people's livelihood and stability".

The China Banking Regulatory Commission pointed out that under the overall framework of the local party committees and governments' work arrangement of "guaranteeing the building and handing over the house", the guiding banks should persist in finding out the situation, seeking truth from facts, scientifically classifying and making precise policies, actively participate in the research on the scheme to reasonably solve the hard funding gap, do a good job in qualified credit granting, and help promote the quick start, early resumption and early delivery of the project. At the same time, effectively meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, vigorously support the construction of rental housing, support the merger and reorganization of projects, focus on new citizens and urban young people, better meet the housing needs of just-needed and improved customers, and strive to keep the real estate market running smoothly and orderly.

On the market side, recent signs of recovery in the real estate market have further increased. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15, in June, the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities generally stabilized from the previous month, and the number of cities that rose from the previous month increased. Real estate sales and investment data showed an improvement trend from the previous month.

(Editor: Bloomberg)