Why didn't the Zhouqu mudslide be predicted? Debris flow is not like an earthquake because it has heavy rain as a precursor. Why can't people be moved to a safe place in advance?

I am very touched to see your question. In the national mourning, someone finally settled down to think about it. People want to speculate. When a problem appears again and again, as a thoughtful person, we must think. For the first time, the Wenchuan earthquake struck and the whole country mourned for one day; Soon after, the Yushu earthquake happened for the second time, and the whole country mourned for another day. Today, we mourn again; However, as the old saying goes, "things are only three", I think your question hits the nail on the head. Why do we mourn again and again in just two years? We can accept the fact that the first two earthquakes were unpredictable. Objectively speaking, the whole world can't effectively predict earthquakes, and we have nothing to say if China can't do it. But this time it was a mudslide, one of the products after the earthquake. I have read many angry youths' speeches, "Don't predict before the earthquake, but mourn after it." In fact, this still lacks objective thinking. After all, we can't effectively predict earthquakes (even if it is too late). But this time, it's really time to apply some ideas of this sentence. There are many reasons for the formation of Zhouqu debris flow on TV, and experts from all walks of life have come forward, but they can't avoid a problem. The main reason for this mudslide is that the earthquake changed the local geological structure. If there is no prediction before the earthquake, why is there no hint to point out the danger of debris flow in post-earthquake disaster prevention? This problem must have troubled everyone who cares about the cause of this mudslide. The people of Zhouqu are facing a year of abnormal climate and heavy rainfall, and they are stepping on a mountain forest with abnormal geological structure, but there is no report to tell the local people that you are in danger before the mudslide.

No prejudgment, no warning, no early evacuation, no ... and then we mourn again.

During the disaster relief, the People's Liberation Army charged ahead and the people supported it. Yes, this is a national disaster. We must and should do so, and we must praise and thank those who have contributed to it. But we must think, like this questioner, why don't we stop all these sacrifices, even if they have a little effect? After all, it is not as unpredictable as an earthquake, and there is no warning.

Money still needs to be donated, and blood still needs to be donated, but our thinking must be traced back to the source: money and blood are valuable, and life cannot be priceless again and again.

Attached here is a heavier topic of foreign media:

The American Overseas Chinese News published an article in August 15, "How many Zhouqu are still lurking in China? Recently, the debris flow in Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, China has become the focus of world attention. By 6: 00 Beijing time 13, this natural disaster had caused 1 156 people to die and 588 people were missing, and all kinds of losses exceeded the losses suffered by the county during the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008.

Although officials and experts explained the cause of the Zhouqu disaster, the main reason was the excessive rainfall in a short time, and the mountain structure in this area was loosened by the Wenchuan earthquake two years ago. This makes people wonder: How many places in China are as unsafe as Zhouqu? According to statistics of relevant institutions, as of 2009, there were 200,000 hidden dangers of geological disasters in Chinese mainland, including 6,543.8+6,000 hidden dangers of extra-large geological disasters, which threatened 7 million people and 84 billion yuan of property. This means that there are at least 1.6 million "stealth bombs" similar to Zhouqu in China, which are "buried" in mountainous and steep provinces such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu, Shaanxi, Hunan and Hubei.

How to avoid the explosion of these "stealth bombs" and repeat the tragedy of Zhouqu is undoubtedly the most worth discussing at present. It is said that "geological disasters cannot be prevented." However, historical experience has proved that as long as early prediction and prevention are made, human beings are fully capable of reducing the losses caused by some major natural disasters and reducing the casualties of innocent lives.

The first step of prevention work is to find out the background of national geological conditions. At present, with the funds and personnel in China, only 1640 counties can be investigated for basic geological disasters. Moreover, some surveys are simply measured with a tape measure, and the accuracy, depth and breadth are far from enough. According to some experts, although the investigation of hidden danger points of geological disasters has been carried out nationwide since 1999, the temperament of the whole territory has not been fully understood so far.

The weakness of basic investigation of geological environment directly leads to ineffective prevention of geological disasters or failure to aim at "key points" in many places, which leads to great disasters. For example, in the Kangding landslide in Sichuan in June this year, the river ditch with possible debris flow was closely monitored, but it was not expected that a high landslide occurred at the height of 100 meter on the other side of the ditch. Although there were two landslides in Wulong, Chongqing in history, geological experts focused on the collapse, which led to the third landslide tragedy in 2009. Accurate investigation has been achieved, and disaster prevention should also pay attention to the group measurement and prevention mechanism. Considering the lack of financial resources and geological professionals, China began to implement "mass monitoring and mass prevention" in the 1960s to fully mobilize the power of the general public. Today, this seemingly simple "stupid method" and "indigenous method" have played an important role in many major disasters. Even the Japanese who have been at the forefront of disaster prevention are amazed.

The Haicheng 1975 earthquake in Liaoning Province is a classic case of "mass monitoring and mass prevention". At that time, seismologists regarded southern Liaoning as the key earthquake monitoring area, and a large number of local people who participated in earthquake prediction timely summarized and reported earthquake precursor information such as animal anomalies and well water anomalies to help seismologists make accurate predictions. On the day of the earthquake, more than one million people in southern Liaoning Province evacuated their homes and workplaces. In this 7.3-magnitude earthquake, casualties were minimal, creating a "miracle".

Although "group monitoring and prevention" is the product of backward technology and high labor cost, it is basically difficult to achieve today, but it has become a "common disease" in some places, such as partial trust in science and technology, lack of professional training for relevant personnel, insufficient publicity and promotion of major meteorological changes and disaster prevention knowledge, and serious lack of public awareness of prevention. In June this year, a major landslide occurred in Guanling, Guizhou. The local people first discovered the falling rocks on the mountain, but did not pay enough attention to them, which eventually led to a huge disaster.

In addition, the relocation of some "disaster-prone areas" can not be ignored. Take Zhouqu as an example, as "the largest drainage slope in Asia", where landslides and mudslides are strongly developed, and there have been several mudslides in history. Even experts admit that "there is no other good way except to move out." However, considering the relocation and resettlement costs of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of yuan, Zhouqu County can only give up. A similar situation exists in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province. This county town, which was badly hit by the Wenchuan earthquake, tried to move three times, but all of them were aborted because of heavy resistance. Until the disaster, the county was in ruins and had to move. Whether the authorities can come up with a feasible relocation plan for "disaster-prone areas" deserves attention.

Disaster is not terrible. The terrible thing is that people can't learn from it. Some people say that the Wenchuan earthquake has made China advance by leaps and bounds in earthquake-resistant experience, earthquake prevention and related universal education, and Zhouqu will certainly improve China's prevention of various geological disasters, including mudslides. This is not only a good expectation for people, but also a spur to the authorities.