Talk about the current hot topic (oral communication in the second volume of grade six)

Speaking of financial crisis, choose your own definition of paragraph machine [edit this paragraph]

The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land prices, the number of commercial bankruptcies, the number of financial institutions closed down, etc.).

[Edit this paragraph] Type

Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis, banking crisis, subprime mortgage crisis and other types. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented some mixed forms of crisis.

[Edit this paragraph] function

Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. In response to the Asian financial crisis that shocked the world, Zhu Rongji firmly stated on many important occasions that "the RMB will never depreciate and will not increase the crisis and difficulties in other Asian countries and regions." "We are part of Asia, we are in the same boat, and we will never take advantage of people's crisis. "The image of the China government represented by Zhu Rongji has won the respect and praise of the international community. Media at home and abroad generally believe that Zhu Rongji is leading the people of China out of the predicament in the wave of economic reform. The best person to go to the light. (The above content is taken from On the Linguistic Features of Zhu Rongji's Speech, Journal of Applied Writing 1998,No. 10).

[Edit this paragraph] The American financial crisis has gone through three stages.

The Wall Street storm triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis has now evolved into a global financial crisis. The rapid development, large quantity and great influence of this process can be said to be unexpected. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three stages: first, the debt crisis, housing lenders can not repay the principal and interest on time caused by the problem. The second stage is the liquidity crisis. Due to the debt crisis, some of these financial institutions cannot have enough liquidity in time to meet the creditors' requirements for liquidation. The third stage is the credit crisis. In other words, people have doubts about credit-based financial activities, leading to such a crisis.

[Edit this paragraph] The contagion mechanism of the international financial crisis has shown new features:

The financial crisis caused by external factors and its international contagion are not recent phenomena. 1873, German and Austrian economic prosperity attracted capital to stay at home, and foreign credit suddenly stopped, which made it difficult for American Jay Cooke companies to operate. 1890 London Bahrain Brothers Investment Bank has a payment crisis against Argentina's creditor's rights. In addition, in June of 5438+00, a financial crisis occurred in new york, and a series of enterprises in London closed down. Bahrain Bank almost closed down in June of 1 10, only with the help of the syndicated guarantee fund led by William Lidderdale, governor of the Bank of England, but Britain helped South Africa, Australia, the United States and other Latin American countries. 1928 In the spring, the new york stock market began to prosper, draining the credit sources that could have been invested in Germany and Latin America, which led to economic depression in these countries and regions. The suspension of overseas credit is likely to accelerate the overseas economic recession, which will have an impact on the countries that caused all this. In 1990s, with the expansion of international hot money, international monetary and financial crises broke out frequently. According to a study completed by Barry Eisengreen and Michael Bodo in 200 1 year, the probability of a financial crisis in a randomly selected country is now 1973 1 times, and the contagiousness of international monetary and financial crises is greatly enhanced, which often happens soon. The media left many words to describe this phenomenon: 1994 "tequila effect", "Asian flu" and "Russian virus" in the Mexican crisis, and the research on the contagion mechanism of monetary and financial crises also rose rapidly. Because a variety of crisis contagion mechanisms need to be realized under the conditions of open capital account and financial market, China survived the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to a great extent by moderate control of capital account and low openness of financial service market. But today, with the changes in China's economic and financial situation, although China's capital account has not been fully opened, the risk of crisis contagion has greatly increased. The American subprime mortgage crisis that shocked the international financial market sounded the alarm for us, indicating that international finance.

The international contagion channels of generalized currency and financial crisis can be divided into two categories: non-accidental contagion channels and accidental contagion channels. The former refers to the infection channels that exist in both the stable period and the crisis period before the crisis. The latter refers to the infection channel that appeared only after the crisis. Because the first type of contagion channel comes from the actual economic and financial ties between countries or regions, and the contagion of crisis comes from the change of macroeconomic fundamentals, it is also called "actual contact channel" or "contagion based on fundamentals", which mainly includes trade ties and competitive devaluation, policy adjustment, random aggregate demand liquidity shock, etc. Accidental contagion has nothing to do with economic fundamentals, but is the result of the behavior (especially irrational behavior) of investors or other participants in the financial market, so it is also called "real contagion" and "pure contagion", which mainly includes endogenous liquidity shock, multiple equilibrium and awakening effect, and political influence contagion. However, these contagion mechanisms are often based on trade links and the investment of "central" countries in "marginal" countries, because institutional investors in developed countries give up emerging market assets and pursue their own high-quality assets. As far as the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China is concerned, the role of China's trade links and foreign investment mechanism may not be critical. On the contrary, China's foreign investment and China's overseas listing may become the most important ways of crisis contagion, and this way of crisis contagion will become more and more important.

[Edit this paragraph] Why did the financial crisis happen?

The current financial crisis is caused by the bubble of American real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? Ronald Reagan called it "the magic of the market"-I called it "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.7% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.

The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the securities market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The most vulnerable countries are the Baltic countries and India. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

[Edit this paragraph] Asian financial crisis

An Overview of the Asian Financial Crisis from 65438 to 0997

From June 65438 to June 0997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and the development process of this crisis was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year.

The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 65438+1On October 23rd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell121.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 162 1.80 points, falling below the 9000 mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.

The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.

The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. Hang Seng Index has been falling to more than 600 points during the financial crisis. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7, the Russian Central Bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.

There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.

Direct triggers include:

(1) The impact of hot money in the international financial market. About $7 trillion of international capital flows around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term.

(2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht.

(3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt.

(4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.

Internal basic factors include:

(1) Overdraft economy is growing rapidly, and non-performing assets are expanding. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors.

(2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect.

(3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.

World economic factors mainly include:

(1) The negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises.

(2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.

The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, without realizing the paper money standard, including: