Will this winter be the coldest winter?

The winter in 2023 is not necessarily the coldest winter.

Just because the temperature is cold doesn't mean it is cold in winter. There are strict criteria for judging the cold winter, and the degree and range of low temperature should be considered comprehensively. Historical data show that the winter temperature in China was generally low during La Nina period, but there were exceptions. For example, 2020 is a warmer La Nina year.

In addition, there are other climatic factors, such as snowfall in mid-high latitudes and changes in Arctic sea ice, which will increase the uncertainty of winter climate. Therefore, it is necessary to continue monitoring and analysis to judge whether this year is a cold winter.

However, whether it is cold winter or not, the climate fluctuates greatly this winter, and it is not ruled out that there will be a strong cold wave event, which will have a more obvious impact on the north.

165438+1From October 5 to 8, cold wave weather affected most parts of China from west to east and from north to south successively, and the average temperature dropped by 8℃ ~ 10℃, and the drop in some areas could reach 12℃ ~ 15℃.

Around165438+1October 13, affected by another cold air, the average temperature of the Yangtze River and most of its northern areas will generally drop by 4℃ ~ 8℃, and the local temperature drop in North China and Northeast China can reach more than 10℃.

This is because the cold air in western Siberia is assisted by the cold air in the Arctic and polar regions, which leads to a huge cold air force. The atmospheric circulation in Eurasia has changed, and the north-south movement is obvious. The cold air in the polar regions has been supplemented to western Siberia all the way south.

Cold air source:

1, high latitude region: located in polar regions and cold regions at high latitudes, the temperature is relatively low, forming cold air masses. When these cold air masses move to low latitudes, they will bring cold air.

2. High altitude areas: Due to high altitude, the temperature in high altitude areas is usually low, forming a cold air mass. When these cold air masses move to low altitude areas, they will also bring cold air.

3. Polar vortex: Polar vortex is a large-scale low-pressure system formed in the polar region, which will bring cold polar air into the mid-latitude region and form cold air.

4. Cold front: A cold front is the front where cold and warm air meet. When the cold front moves, it will bring cold air into relatively warm areas.

5. High-altitude jet stream: High-altitude jet stream refers to the air stream flowing rapidly in the mid-latitude area of the upper atmosphere, which will bring cold air from high latitude to low latitude.