What are the variables in the coal industry before and after the two sessions?

This year is the first year of "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" in China, so the development of energy industry, especially traditional energy industries such as coal and steel, is particularly worthy of attention at this National "Two Sessions". On the afternoon of March 3rd 15, the fourth session of the 12th China People's Political Consultative Conference was officially opened. Let's take a look at what changes will take place in the coal industry before and after the two sessions. What variables will appear.

Before the two sessions: the daily consumption of power plants increased, port resources were tight, and coal prices rose.

The latest news 2065438+06 On the afternoon of March 2, the price index of thermal coal around Bohai Sea showed that the comprehensive average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal closed at 385 yuan/ton, up by 4 yuan/ton from the previous period, and the rebound momentum was strengthened. From 65438+1October 13 to this reporting period, the price index has risen for six consecutive reporting periods, with a cumulative increase of 14 yuan/ton.

The analysis report of Foresight Industry Research Institute "Development Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China Coal Trade Industry" points out that the rise of coal price is mainly affected by several factors. On the one hand, the weak balance on the supply side has been broken, the daily consumption of power plants has increased, and the port resources are tight. After the fifteenth day of the first month, with the resumption of work and production, the daily coal consumption of downstream power plants resumed, which prompted users to restore their enthusiasm for pulling coal and raised their awareness of sending ships to replenish stocks. On the other hand, in February, the domestic coal industry recovered slowly in all aspects, the upstream coal mines resumed work less than expected, and some small and medium-sized coal mines continued to stop production and close. Port coal resources are tightening, and the balance between coal supply and demand in the previous stage will be broken.

According to the monitoring of China coal market network, up to now, the coal storage in northern ports has remained low. Among them, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port is even less than 3 million tons, while the coal storage in SDIC Jingtang Port is about 600,000 tons, and the coal storage in Caofeidian Port is also at a low level of about 6.5438+0.6 million tons. The above three ports have less coal storage and low transportation volume, and continue to be in a state of import and export balance. Only Huanghua Port's coal reserves are still at a medium level. Affected by the increase of high-quality resources and the expansion of user groups, the number of coal in and out of Huanghua Port has maintained a double high. The low inventory of the port supports the continuous rise of coal prices.

On the other hand, Shenhua, China Coal and other big briquette enterprises announced that they would raise the coal sales price 10 yuan/ton in March. Affected by this, coal prices rose, and the increase was significantly expanded. In addition, during the two sessions, the coal mine safety supervision was strengthened, and the coal production at the coal supply end was limited, which formed a continuous favorable support for the market coal price. It is expected that the market coal price will continue to rise in March and will not fall in the short term.

After the two sessions: the shortage of port resources eased, and the downward pressure on coal prices was great.

After the National "Two Sessions", Kengkou Coal Mine resumed work and its output gradually increased. In April and May, with the recovery of upstream coal enterprises' traffic volume and the increase of railway traffic volume, the inventory of coastal power plants will be effectively replenished, the inventory of ports will also be restored to a reasonable position, the shortage of port resources will be alleviated, and the pressure of oversupply in the market will still increase.

At the same time, the weather is getting warmer, the demand for coal in the south is weakening, and the power plant also slows down the procurement pace because of a large number of replenishment in the early stage. Many negative factors lead to market instability, and it remains to be seen whether coal prices can continue to rebound in the later period.