What are the influencing factors of rapeseed oil futures price?

In recent years, there are more and more factors affecting the price of vegetable oil in China. With the adjustment of agricultural planting structure in China, the domestic rapeseed planting area and vegetable oil output fluctuate greatly; After China's entry into WTO, the import and export volume of oils and oilseeds in China has increased year by year, and the price of vegetable oil has been increasingly influenced by the international market. With the sharp rise in oil prices, the proportion of vegetable oil converted into biodiesel has increased year by year, and the demand for biodiesel has an increasing impact on the price of vegetable oil in China.

1, supply and price of rapeseed in China

As a downstream product of rapeseed processing, the price of rapeseed is greatly influenced by rapeseed price, which is determined by rapeseed planting area, yield and supply and demand.

(1) Rape planting area in China

Rape planting area is mainly affected by farmers' willingness to plant rape. Whether farmers are willing to plant rapeseed mainly depends on: the purchase price of rapeseed last year and the expected annualized expected income of rapeseed planting; The expected annualized income comes from planting other agricultural products such as wheat and cotton that compete for land. In recent years, due to the low expected annualized income of rape planting and the high labor consumption of vegetable oil planting, farmers' enthusiasm for planting rape has declined. In September, 2007, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Development of Oil Production, which increased the support for rape planting and gave the rape planting subsidy 10 yuan/mu for the first time. With the country's increasing attention to China's oil supply security, it will play a positive role in expanding rape planting area, especially in the development and utilization of winter fallow fields in the Yangtze River basin.

(2) Weather conditions and output per unit area

Under the condition of a certain rape planting area in China, the yield per unit area affects the final yield of rape, and the yield per unit area is greatly affected by the weather. Rape is greatly affected by freezing injury, drought, low temperature and flood in the growth process, especially in the late growth stage and during harvesting, threshing and whole drying. In case of disastrous weather, the quality, yield per unit area and oil yield of rapeseed will be reduced. For example, in 2002, the expected bumper harvest of rapeseed production in China turned into reduced production, mainly because the long-term rainy weather in the Yangtze River basin (for more than 20 days in a row) affected the final harvest near the harvest. In 2008, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places in the south of rapeseed were affected by heavy snow and freezing weather, but the weather in the later stage of rapeseed growth was ideal, which partially made up for the influence caused by the unfavorable weather in the earlier stage. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to the weather changes during the growth and harvest of rapeseed.

(3) Purchase price of rapeseed

The purchase price of rapeseed directly affects the production cost and crushing benefit of rapeseed oil. Squeezing benefit is one of the important factors that determine the supply of vegetable oil. If the squeezing efficiency of processing plants is depressed, some factories will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of vegetable oil. The purchase price of rapeseed from June to 10 every year is the focus of the market. The purchase price depends on the selling mentality of farmers and the expectation of the oil factory for the future oil price trend. If the market expects to reduce production, farmers will wait and see or even hesitate to sell at the initial stage of acquisition, the purchase price will rise, the contradiction between production and demand will intensify, and oil plants will snap up and hoard in some areas and at a certain stage. Therefore, paying close attention to the purchase price and progress of rapeseed is an important part of analyzing the price of rapeseed oil.

2. Supply and demand of vegetable oil

(1) yield

The current output of rapeseed oil is a variable, which is subject to factors such as rapeseed supply, expected annualized expected income of rapeseed pressing, production cost and so on. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious inverse relationship between the output and price of vegetable oil. The output of vegetable oil increased and the price was relatively low. The output of vegetable oil decreased and the price was relatively high.

(2) Consumption

In recent years, with the continuous expansion of soybean oil and palm oil imports, the consumption habits of traditional vegetable oil consumption areas in the Yangtze River Basin have changed, and many traditional vegetable oil consumption areas have gradually accepted soybean oil consumption. However, despite this, the traditional consumption market of vegetable oil still exists. Once the output of vegetable oil is greatly reduced, imported rapeseed can not make up for the domestic supply gap, and the shortage of vegetable oil supply will become more prominent.

(3) Seasonal law

The general law of the price change of vegetable oil during the year is as follows: from May to June, new rapeseed was listed one after another, and the price of vegetable oil began to fall; From July to August, the supply of vegetable oil increased and the price was the lowest; At the end of September, the demand for the two festivals increased and prices began to pick up; After 10, the temperature drops, the consumption of palm oil decreases, the consumption of vegetable oil increases, and the price rises further; From February 65438 to the following year 10, vegetable oil entered the peak demand season, and the price climbed, and new rapeseed was listed at a high price. Affected by the domestic macroeconomic situation and other comprehensive factors such as the supply and demand of vegetable oil, the seasonal price change law of vegetable oil is more complicated, and even anti-seasonal changes occur.

(4) Import and export volume

The import and export volume of rapeseed mainly depends on the prices of rapeseed and vegetable oil at home and abroad. In recent years, the import of rapeseed oil and vegetable oil in China has been low, accounting for less than 10% of domestic consumption, mainly because of the high international cost, which makes it impossible to import. Since 2005, many domestic manufacturers have paid close attention to the imported rapeseed market. Once the price at home and abroad is right, the import of rapeseed will increase greatly. From the new trend, with the continuous growth of per capita oil consumption in China, the gap between supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil is getting bigger and bigger, and the total import of rapeseed and vegetable oil in China is expected to increase.

(5) Vegetable oil inventory

Vegetable oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tension of supply. In most cases, insufficient inventory leads to price increase, while sufficient inventory leads to price decrease. Because vegetable oil is not easy to be preserved for a long time, once the stock of vegetable oil increases, the price of vegetable oil tends to go down. In addition to commercial stocks, China has a national reserve of vegetable oil. National reserves are mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Anhui and Sichuan, rotating 50% every year, and the scale is relatively large. Therefore, investors need to pay attention to the rotation time, progress and flow direction of national reserves.

(6) Demand for biodiesel

The influence of crude oil market can not be ignored. The sharp increase of biodiesel production in 2006 is one of the important factors for the global vegetable oil price increase, which also affects the vegetable oil price in China. With the support of preferential policies such as tax exemption in EU countries, the production of biodiesel from low erucic vegetable oil has been realized on a large scale and has become an important part of its energy security strategy. Since 2006, the vegetable oil consumption of biodiesel in the EU has accounted for 63.7% of the total vegetable oil consumption, and there is a trend of increasing year by year.

3, related and alternative commodity price impact

(1) Price relationship between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal

Rapeseed oil is the downstream product of rapeseed, and about 0.38 tons of rapeseed oil and 0.6 tons of rapeseed meal can be squeezed out per ton of rapeseed. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are closely related. Rapeseed meal is mainly used in fresh water culture, and it is difficult for other varieties of oil meal to replace rapeseed meal. If the benefit of freshwater aquaculture in China is good, the consumption of rapeseed meal will be enlarged, the price of rapeseed meal will rise, the purchase price of rapeseed will be boosted, the operating rate of oil plants will increase, the supply of vegetable oil will increase and the price will drop; When rapeseed meal is unsalable, the oil factory will reduce the operating rate, the output of vegetable oil will decrease, and the price of vegetable oil will often rise.

(2) the price of vegetable oil and other oils and fats

In the domestic and international markets, as the oil plate, soybean oil, vegetable oil and palm oil interact with each other and are closely linked. In China, there is a certain substitution effect between different oils. If the price of vegetable oil is too high, refineries or oil-using enterprises will often replace or blend with other vegetable oils, resulting in a decrease in the demand for vegetable oil and a decrease in the price of vegetable oil. Therefore, it is necessary to put vegetable oil into the whole oil plate for analysis, and pay close attention to the market theme and price difference changes among the three major oils.

4. Supply, demand and price of related oils and fats in the international market.

The world oil production situation, especially the soybean production progress in the United States, the palm oil supply situation in Malaysia, the rapeseed production situation in Canada and the import demand of major importing countries are the main factors affecting the price fluctuation in the international market. Affected by the uncertainty of supply and demand of vegetable oil varieties in the world and the supply and demand of vegetable oil itself, the price fluctuation frequency of vegetable oil has increased in recent years, and the price risk has increased sharply.

5. Factors affecting the comprehensive cost of oil plants.

The increase or decrease of comprehensive cost of oil plant, such as interest, tax, coal price, solvent oil, employee salary, maintenance materials and other factors, will make the price of vegetable oil fluctuate.