How about raising miscellaneous broilers?

From the perspective of China's economy, influenced by the macro-environment at home and abroad, there is a certain downward pressure on the overall economy in 20 14, the contradiction of overcapacity is prominent, the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises are difficult, the risks in the financial and financial fields cannot be ignored, and the smog weather, drinking water safety and soil heavy metal pollution cannot be ignored. For the white feather broiler industry, the current situation is very bad. The loss of aquaculture has been going on for a year and a half. Is it the bottom? The rapid development of broiler industry in previous years led to overcapacity. After this disaster, has it recovered its reasonable scale? At present, the epidemic situation of H7N9 influenza has come back again, and at the same time, new influenza H 10N8 and H5N2 have hit us again. 153 how many subtypes of avian influenza cases have appeared? How deep is the damage to the poultry industry? The severe epidemic has caused great harm to broilers, and the abnormal climate and natural disasters have made this imbalance even more confusing. The high feed cost, the increasing labor cost and the unsatisfactory effect of disease prevention and control have brought uncertainty to the trend of broiler industry in 20 14 China.

1. From the last round of ups and downs analysis, from the end of 2002 to the beginning of 2006, China's broiler industry experienced sustained losses for a long time due to various reasons. On the one hand, irresistible factors such as SARS and bird flu have frustrated the broiler market in China. On the other hand, the lack of self-discipline in the broiler industry has led to excessive market expansion, and the supply of parents' chickens exceeds demand, which is the market trough in the past 30 months. In addition, the overall profit of raising pigs is getting thinner and thinner, and the risk of raising pigs is getting bigger and bigger. In addition, due to market cyclical fluctuations and disease factors, many rural free-range farmers gradually quit the pig industry, resulting in a decline in pork production, an imbalance between supply and demand of pigs, and an increase in pork prices. People turn to cheaper and more nutritious chicken products. In view of the above two reasons, 2007 and 2008 became the best years in China broiler market. However, the good times did not last long. Since then, the breeding scale of domestic ancestral chicken farms and parental chicken farms has been expanding, and the downstream commercial seedling market is in a state of oversupply. Therefore, the broiler industry has entered a new round of recession since the second half of 2009, and China's broiler breeding has entered a new round of rapid growth since the second half of 20 10. There are many reasons for this round of increase, but the growth of people's demand for chicken is an important factor that cannot be ignored. This round of increase continued until May 20th12.

2. From the analysis of the end consumer market, in 20 13 years, broiler products were affected by consumption and the overall supply of pork and poultry products exceeded demand. Slaughtering plants operate cautiously according to product shipments and prices, and it is expected that the price of hairy chickens will be stable, and there will be room for phased price increases in the traditional peak consumption season. The periodic price increase of wool chickens, coupled with the phased elimination of breeding chickens, caused the gap period of chickens, which led to the price increase of chickens.

3. According to the analysis of market rules in previous years, the white feather breeder chicken market is subject to the commercial wool chicken market, the price of commercial wool chicken is subject to the sales price of chicken products, and the price of chicken products is subject to the price of pork, which is positively correlated. The breeding cycle in China is also called the pig cycle, that is, one year's gain, one year's flat and one year's loss. The fluctuation range of the whole market is a four-year cycle, that is, a low-valley year-a transitional year. Based on the analysis of domestic and international economic situation, combined with the unique changing law of white feather broiler industry and pig industry, it is predicted that 20 13 is a low year, 20 14 is a transition year from low year to high year, and 20 15 is a high year.