How to predict the stock market trend through the rise and fall of futures market

Using the futures market to select stocks (The following is the information collected by Bian Xiao on how to predict the stock market trend through the ups and downs of the futures market. I hope you like it. )

The linkage between futures market and stock market has a long history. For example, the rise and fall of energy futures commodities in the international market will directly affect the performance of its stock market. This is because the price discovery function of futures market can reflect the future performance of related listed companies to a certain extent, that is, the price leading index function of futures market can predict market opportunities for the stock market.

Reminder: analyzing the price trend of the futures market is helpful to analyze the future price trend of a commodity, and then more effectively grasp the investment opportunities in the stock market. This is the basic principle of stock investment in the futures market.

(A) to understand the futures market

First of all, we should have a preliminary understanding of the trading rules of futures varieties and the international pricing center of important commodities. Nonferrous metals are mainly in London Metal Exchange (LME), cotton is mainly in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYBOT), rubber is mainly in Tokyo Stock Exchange, and soybeans are mainly in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).

China nonferrous metals market is mainly concentrated in Shanghai Futures Exchange, and agricultural products and chemical products are mainly in Zhengzhou and Dalian Futures Exchanges. Open the stock market analysis software and click the "Futures" button, and you can see the quotation information of various futures products listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as shown in Figure 3. 18.

Figure 3. 18 Quotation information of futures listed on Shanghai Futures Exchange

Click on the "Dalian Futures" tab of the software * * to see the quotation information of various listed futures in Dalian Futures Exchange. Similarly, by clicking the "Zhengzhou Futures" tab, you can see the quotation information of various listed futures in Zhengzhou Futures Exchange. Although China has become the largest importer of steel, cotton and other resources in the world, the pricing center of futures prices is still in the international market, and futures prices often form a transmission mechanism of "international futures market → domestic futures market → related listed companies". Therefore, the trend of the international futures market has reference value.

(2) Futures concept stocks in A shares

In the stock market, stocks with the concept of "futures" have formed a group, and some of them have become leading varieties, such as Nanning Sugar Industry (0009 1 1) and Guitang Shares (000833). Jiangxi copper industry (600362) and Yunnan copper industry (000878) among the copper categories; Shandong Gold (600547) and Admiralty Gold (600489) among the gold categories; China Aluminum (60 1600) and nanshan aluminum (600219); New shares of cotton (600540), etc.

When the futures price of related commodities changes greatly, the stock price of its corresponding leading stock often reacts the fastest and is most affected. Therefore, once there is a strong buying or selling signal in the futures market, investors should focus on the leading varieties related to the stock market.

(3) Use futures to speculate on short-term.

Short-term experts can use the time difference between inside and outside the futures market and between the futures market and the stock market to arbitrage. Domestic commodity futures opened at 9 am, 30 minutes earlier than the stock market.

If one day Shanghai copper futures open sharply higher, perform well or even have a daily limit, you can consider actively placing an order to buy copper stocks; On the other hand, if Shanghai copper futures fall sharply, investors holding relevant stocks should consider selling them first. Similarly, investors can also refer to the international futures market and use the time difference for short-term speculation.

For example, on the evening of April 6, 2006, the price of copper and zinc reached a new high on the London Metal Exchange, and then the copper futures on the new york Metal Exchange reached a new high, which made investors realize that mainland copper stocks had a chance to follow suit the next day.

Reminder: When using futures for short-term speculation, we must pay attention to controlling risks, especially for stock prices that have a large increase and a long time.

(4) Short-term listing with new futures varieties.

Under normal circumstances, before a commodity is listed in the futures market, the stocks related to the commodity will have a good rising market. For example, on Monday, March 26th, 2007, zinc was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. On the previous trading day (that is, Friday, March 23rd), zinc-related stocks rose sharply, and zinc industry shares (00075 1) and HTC shares (60033 1) were strongly closed at the daily limit. Luoping Zinc and Electricity (002 1 14), Zhongjin Lingnan (000060), China National Color Corporation (000758) and other related varieties also increased by more than 5%. The strength of zinc stocks is directly related to the listing of domestic zinc futures on March 26th.

1. Use the futures index to "predict" the market trend of the day.

Before the stock market opens, many people will predict the trend of the day according to the news of the day. After the introduction of stock index futures, stock index futures can also be used.

Trend to "predict" the trend of the stock market, which can be more accurate.

Stock index futures will open 15 minutes earlier than the stock market and close 15 minutes later. And you can use stock index futures to leave 15 minutes in advance.

The situation is a "foresight" of the stock market trend that day. Stock index futures open earlier than the stock market, and can be announced before being digested to a certain extent.

News.

Analysts believe that the opening and closing of the stock market are almost the same as those of stock index futures, so the trend of stock index futures is often equal to "prediction"

"The trend of the stock market that day.

In fact, when we predict the stock market according to the news, it is often not very accurate. There is a simple reason. What you see is really profitable.

Interest rates, but at the same time there are a lot of bad news to "hedge". In this case, it is often difficult to grasp who wins and who loses from both sides of the news, and the stock

Refers to futures, whose early trend will tell you the result of "hedging"-who is the big winner.

2. Use the futures index to "predict" the spot trend.

The charm of the futures market lies in letting you really know the price. Does the charm of stock index futures lie in letting you really know the price in the spot market?

Of course, although stock index futures have foresight and early reaction to a certain extent, this early reaction cannot be understood as

Determine the role. Just like the real-time weather forecast in the disk, it may be right or wrong, but the real weather in the future will not be affected by false reports.

Change.

3. Look at the futures index positions-know where the main force is going.

"According to the position, trading volume and basis (= spot price-futures price) of stock index futures, it can provide investors with a stock operation.

Some new ideas. "The analyst said.

Stock index futures not only announce trading volume, but also announce positions. Because the stock index futures adopt the big declaration system, investors can not only

Depending on how many seats are occupied, you can also see which seat is occupied.

Liu, a senior analyst in mainland futures, said, for example, small positions represent fewer people, while large positions represent more people.

The field is divided, many people are bullish and many people are bearish. If everyone is bullish and a few are bearish, then the position will be small.

The bigger the position, the greater the probability that the market outlook will change! !

In the operation of stock index futures, we can see whether those "big households" are bullish or bearish. The sum of multiple positions in the "big family" is empty.

The sum of the positions held by all parties is often inconsistent. If many parties are far greater than the empty side, it means that the strength of the main bulls is greater than that of the main bears.

"Anyone who has done stocks knows that the rise and fall of the market is often related to three factors: one is macro policy, the other is liquidity, and the third is the action of large households. The amount of positions can help us provide a data about funds. " Analysts said.

4. Look at the price difference change-predict whether to bargain-hunting or escape from the top.

The spread refers to the price difference between the spot market and the futures market, and between the near and long-term contracts. With proper use, this price difference can also be achieved.

It is a magic weapon to judge the market trend.

If the gap between the far-month contract and the near-month contract is relatively large, it shows that the long and short positions in the market are very different. He took crude oil as an example. When the crude oil futures price exceeds $30, the difference between the farthest monthly contract and the latest monthly contract is at least $7. At around 147, it is about 14.

Such information is invisible in our original spot market. Since stock index futures have such a reference function, it is really "unnecessary"

No need. "It is worth noting that the above two situations refer to most situations, not absolute. Investors should analyze the specific situation.