Scientists warn that the stratosphere near the North Pole is "about to" warm.

Researchers from Bristol, the University of Exeter and the University of Bath have proposed a new method to predict the knock-on effects of various changes in the main stratospheric airflow from 10 to 50 km (6 to 30 miles). .

Ironically, the reason for this cold is that in just 24 to 48 hours, sudden heat suddenly pours into the rotating airflow.

With the temperature rising as high as 40 degrees Celsius, the vortex has undergone some rapid changes, changing its route, or rapidly splitting into multiple sub-vortices, which are pushed to the surrounding atmosphere.

The result could be devastating. Just a few years ago, the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event brought cold polar air from Siberia to Europe, which made the media called "Beast" transmit a high-pressure unit of snow.

With Scandinavia as the center, the cold weather dropped frozen feathers from the west to Britain, causing traffic chaos and even causing many deaths.

In other words, not all the polar vortex transitions end in freezing conditions. Two years ago, the warming of stratospheric polar winds was one of the warmest winters in British history.

Knowing which deviations are precursors of winter storms and which will lead to landslides will make the weather forecast more accurate.

Surprisingly, this stratospheric warming event itself is not completely rare. According to records, on average, about one-sixth of it occurs in the polar vortex in the Arctic every ten years.

Richard hall, a meteorologist at the University of Bristol and the lead author of the new study, said: "Although extreme cold weather events cannot be determined, about two-thirds of the southern hemisphere has a significant impact on the surface weather."

Observations more than 60 years ago provided researchers with 40 such examples. These examples lead to the swing and split of polar vortex in the northern stratosphere, which provides a prediction algorithm for tracking algorithm, which tries to predict the impact of each change on the northern hemisphere weather system.

The results show that compared with other SSW anomalies, when the polar vortex splits into two smaller winds, we can expect more serious cooling events.

This is a timely result, and it is expected that the airflow will change over the weekend.

Adam Scarf, head of the long-term forecast of the British Meteorological Office, said: "As predicted, the current atmospheric observations show that the Arctic stratosphere is experiencing a sudden warming event, and the polar vortex in the stratosphere is weakening."

More importantly, this change has all the characteristics of the more dangerous SSW, which means that the predicted temperature drop may be large.

Understanding the climate model is undoubtedly helpful to improve the probability of knowing the expected value. However, although the improved algorithm can benefit from this scale model, there is still great uncertainty in determining the exact details in the following days.

Strangely, this may even prove that Europe is sweating rather than shivering.

After all, Britain experienced a record warm winter after SSW in February 2009, so the Meteorological Bureau does not rule out the possibility of similar sultry weather in the next few weeks.

"Although the British media linked the long-term cold weather and snowfall events in February and March of 20 18 (called' Beasts of the East' by the British media) with the sudden warming of the stratosphere, the record warm weather in February of 20 19 followed closely." Meteorologist Matthew lennart said.

We still have a long way to go before we can confidently promise how the weather will develop after these extreme changes.

However, tools like this new algorithm will increase the probability of guessing, and this method will continue as we know more about the environment.

William Seviour, a mathematician at the University of Exeter, said: "Despite these advances, there are still many questions about the mechanisms that trigger these dramatic events and how they affect the surface, so this is an exciting and important field for future research."