Why is the path of the hurricane forest so unpredictable?

According to meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Dorian of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is tied with the second strongest hurricane in history. The sustained wind speed in Dorian is as high as 185 miles (295 kilometers) per hour. Tonight (September 1 Sunday), its 10 mile wide eyes are being trained in the Bahamas.

After that, the powerful tropical cyclone is expected to move northwest, although forecasters say its path is a thorny problem. The track that is difficult to determine is mainly because of an atmospheric steering wheel, which Dorian dropped when he was promoted to level 5.

When they enter these weak current modes, there are not many steering wheels, and we can have these unstable trajectories. Lance Wood, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told Life Science that this situation is not common, but it is not unprecedented. Landed in Texas and Louisiana twice on August 20 17.

Related: Eight most destructive hurricanes in history.

Usually controlled by the wind pattern in the middle of the atmosphere, he explained that in this case, Dorian has a fairly good north-northwest movement in the range of 10 to 12 miles per hour, but it is (mainly) controlled by the southern part of the Atlantic high pressure area and begins to weaken in the west. The wind has weakened, so there won't be much direction. So it moves very slowly.

The track of Hurricane Dorian ended at 5 pm on September 19. Key question: When another system, a tropical depression system, develops along the east coast, where will Dorian be? At present, the system is located in the north of Dorian, moving from the Great Lakes to the middle of the atmosphere. "It will move along the east coast on Monday and late Tuesday, causing Dorian to accelerate northward," Wood explained.

Hurricane Dorian is crawling westward at a speed of 7 miles per hour (1 1 km), according to the latest news from the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm. Forecasters predict that this slow forward movement will continue in the next 24 to 30 hours, and Dorian is expected to be affected by the low-pressure system.

Related: 20 19 hurricane season: how long does it last, and

What are your expectations? "We think it will stay off the coast of Florida, maybe off the coast of Georgia," Wood said, adding that the storm should begin to accelerate northward after passing through Florida.

Wood said that if Dorian did land, he expected it to happen on the Bund in North Carolina. But he said it was almost too close-moving a little east or west might make a big difference.

The National Hurricane Center said that Dorian will remain a "catastrophic hurricane" in the next few days. The hurricane's winds now extend 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the center.

As of 5pm, NHC predicted that there would be life-threatening storm surges in Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island, and the water level might be 65,438+08 to 23 feet (5.5 to 7 meters) higher than the normal tide level. NHC said that along the coastline, storm surges are expected to be accompanied by huge waves.

The storm surge may make the water level in Florida reach 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2 meters) from the entrance of Jupiter to the Vorucia/Brevard county line. According to the National Health Service, the sea water may rise to a height of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) above the ground in the area extending to Jupiter Bay north of Deerfield Beach.

Hurricanes rise from above: pictures of nature's biggest storm: Hurricane Michael falls from a tree and uproots19th century cultural relics in Irma's eyes: amazing scene photos captured by hurricane hunter are first published in Live Science.